Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Ishares Global Consumer Disc / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing some positive signals that suggest the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or at the very least, that downside is limited from here.</li>
<li>Still, YTD downtrends remain intact on the global MSCI equity indexes, and we need to see reversals of their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.</li>
<li>Cyclical Growth Sectors continue to gain momentum and we are upgrading the MSCI ACWI Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services Sectors from underweight to market weight. Add exposure.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing some positive signals that suggest the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or at the very least, that downside is limited from here.
Still, YTD downtrends remain intact on the global MSCI equity indexes, and we need to see reversals of their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.
Cyclical Growth Sectors continue to gain momentum and we are upgrading the MSCI ACWI Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services Sectors from underweight to market weight. Add exposure.


Positive Signals; Growth Sectors Gaining Momentum; Buy Ideas Within Global Growth Sectors

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano International (709 HK)</a>’s 1H22 net profit is expected to be in the range of HK$91-101 million, which represents YoY growth of 52-68%. Interims will be out in early August.</li>
<li>The clear sign of a retail recovery diminishes the prospect of the Cheng family’s low-ball offer of HK$1.88 per share hitting the 50%+ minimum acceptance threshold.</li>
<li>The offer price has not been declared final suggesting that the Cheng family retains some room to test shareholder appetite with an improved offer.   </li>
</ul>



Giordano International (709 HK)’s 1H22 net profit is expected to be in the range of HK$91-101 million, which represents YoY growth of 52-68%. Interims will be out in early August.
The clear sign of a retail recovery diminishes the prospect of the Cheng family’s low-ball offer of HK$1.88 per share hitting the 50%+ minimum acceptance threshold.
The offer price has not been declared final suggesting that the Cheng family retains some room to test shareholder appetite with an improved offer.   


Giordano’s Retail Recovery Will Force the Cheng Family into a Rethink

<ul>
<li>Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI,ACWI ex-U.S.,EAFE, and EM) remain bearish with YTD downtrends intact. Until these indexes reverse downtrends, we are bearish and view bounces as bear market rallies.</li>
<li>Major non-U.S. countries appear to be much further along in the bottoming process, a potential sign that U.S. indexes could take a back seat once global equities finally bottom.</li>
<li>Indexes that have not made a new low since March: Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small, Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50, and China's MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US).</li>
</ul>


Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI,ACWI ex-U.S.,EAFE, and EM) remain bearish with YTD downtrends intact. Until these indexes reverse downtrends, we are bearish and view bounces as bear market rallies.
Major non-U.S. countries appear to be much further along in the bottoming process, a potential sign that U.S. indexes could take a back seat once global equities finally bottom.
Indexes that have not made a new low since March: Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small, Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50, and China's MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US).


Hang Seng, MSCI China Near Major Base Breakouts; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's in Hong Kong, China, & Japan

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>2Q22 is a tough quarter for China's consumer discretionary companies. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> has experienced improvement in recovery in May and Jun, but we see FILA stay challenging.</li>
<li>In its FY22 result, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bosideng-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6537:1" rel="noopener">Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK)</a> demonstrated its resilience in gross margin despite higher input costs. More positive developments are brewing in 2H of this year.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7196:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (600690 CH)</a> has its business rebounding after the lockdown and healthy performance in overseas market should partly mitigate the lockdown-induced weakness in 2Q22.</li>
</ul>


2Q22 is a tough quarter for China's consumer discretionary companies. Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) has experienced improvement in recovery in May and Jun, but we see FILA stay challenging.
In its FY22 result, Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK) demonstrated its resilience in gross margin despite higher input costs. More positive developments are brewing in 2H of this year.

Haier Smart Home (600690 CH) has its business rebounding after the lockdown and healthy performance in overseas market should partly mitigate the lockdown-induced weakness in 2Q22.


China Consumer Discretionary: Darkness Before Dawn

Equity Bottom-Up

Bosideng International Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The healthy FY22 result of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bosideng-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6537:1" rel="noopener">Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK)</a> showed its ability to solidify leadership position and ride through higher costs with margin expansion. </li>
<li>Management expects double-digit profit growth for FY23 as it pursues targeted "2+13" expansion strategy and increase push for online sales. New spokespersons and flagship store will add to promotional impacts.</li>
<li>Net cash of Rmb7.8bn and strong FCF generation ability can ensure high dividend payout (FY22: 80.2%) to sustain. Premium valuation over local apparel peers is well justified. </li>
</ul>


The healthy FY22 result of Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK) showed its ability to solidify leadership position and ride through higher costs with margin expansion. 
Management expects double-digit profit growth for FY23 as it pursues targeted "2+13" expansion strategy and increase push for online sales. New spokespersons and flagship store will add to promotional impacts.
Net cash of Rmb7.8bn and strong FCF generation ability can ensure high dividend payout (FY22: 80.2%) to sustain. Premium valuation over local apparel peers is well justified. 


Bosideng (3998 HK): Key Takeaways from Post-FY22 Result Call, Generally Optimistic

Hong Kong

Bosideng International Holdings Limited develops down apparel products in the Peoples Republic of China. The Company's products include down jackets, vests, and pants which it offers through retail outlets located in multiple cities.

Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK)

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Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK)

Positive Signals; Growth Sectors Gaining Momentum; Buy Ideas Within Global Growth Sectors

Starting to see positive signals that suggest downside is limited from here. Still, we need to see reversals of YTD downtrends on $ACWI $ACWX $EFA...

Vermilion Research

Giordano’s Retail Recovery Will Force the Cheng Family into a Rethink

The positive profit alert diminishes the prospect of the Cheng family’s offer hitting the 50%+ voting threshold. The offer has not been declared...

Arun George

Hang Seng, MSCI China Near Major Base Breakouts; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's in Hong Kong, China, & Japan

Hong Kong's Hang Seng and China's $MCHI and $KWEB are near major base breakouts. We are watching is 22,700 on Hang Seng and $56.60 on MCHI; we are...

Vermilion Research

China Consumer Discretionary: Darkness Before Dawn

The Covid-induced lockdowns have brought headwinds to China consumer discretionary names in 2Q22, but we are seeing a gradual recovery with...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Bosideng (3998 HK): Key Takeaways from Post-FY22 Result Call, Generally Optimistic

Bosideng logged solid FY22 profit and we are confident that its leadership position, , margin expansion capability, quality management and rising...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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