Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>US base oils export price-discount to US domestic prices stays narrower in Q1 2025 vs year-earlier.</li><li>Narrower export price-discount points to more manageable supply surplus at end-2024 and early this year, when domestic demand faced seasonal slowdown.</li><li>More manageable supply surplus follows firm export volumes through H2 2024 and early this year.</li></ul>

US base oils export price-discount to US domestic prices stays narrower in Q1 2025 vs year-earlier.Narrower export price-discount points to more manageable supply surplus at end-2024 and early this year, when domestic demand faced seasonal slowdown.More manageable supply surplus follows firm export volumes through H2 2024 and early this year.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 31 March

<ul><li>Global base oils prices slip relative to firmer feedstock/competing fuel prices.</li><li>Base oils margins in most markets remain at levels that point to balanced-to-tight supply-demand fundamentals, incentivizing refiners to maintain higher output.</li><li>FOB Asia base oils prices fall vs gasoil prices.</li></ul>

Global base oils prices slip relative to firmer feedstock/competing fuel prices.Base oils margins in most markets remain at levels that point to balanced-to-tight supply-demand fundamentals, incentivizing refiners to maintain higher output.FOB Asia base oils prices fall vs gasoil prices.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 31 March

<ul><li>US base oils prices mostly stay in narrow range vs VGO prices, contrast with surging premium to VGO this time a year ago.</li><li>Margins hold in narrow range this year even as extensive round of plant maintenance tightens supply.</li><li>Supply could face additional disruption from markets like Canada, depending on impact and reaction to imposition of any US tariffs.</li></ul>

US base oils prices mostly stay in narrow range vs VGO prices, contrast with surging premium to VGO this time a year ago.Margins hold in narrow range this year even as extensive round of plant maintenance tightens supply.Supply could face additional disruption from markets like Canada, depending on impact and reaction to imposition of any US tariffs.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 31 March

<ul><li>US base oils demand typically rises around this time of year to meet seasonal pick-up in lube consumption.</li><li>US spot base oils prices mostly hold steady, even with round of plant maintenance work and higher crude oil prices that keep margins under pressure.</li><li>Steady prices, despite rangebound margins and lower supply, suggest demand is lower than usual and lower than expected for the time of year.</li></ul>

US base oils demand typically rises around this time of year to meet seasonal pick-up in lube consumption.US spot base oils prices mostly hold steady, even with round of plant maintenance work and higher crude oil prices that keep margins under pressure.Steady prices, despite rangebound margins and lower supply, suggest demand is lower than usual and lower than expected for the time of year.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 31 March

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low</li>
<li>Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&amp;P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a "sell rallies" regime</li>
</ul>


Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low
Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.
We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&amp;P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a "sell rallies" regime


Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

United Kingdom

BP P.L.C is an energy company. The Company explores and produces oil and natural gas, refines, markets, and supplies petroleum products, as well as generates solar energy, and manufactures and markets chemicals such as terephthalic acid, acetic acid, acrylonitrile, ethylene, and polyethylene. BP serves customers worldwide.

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BP (BP US)

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 31 March

US base oils export price-discount to US domestic prices stays narrower in Q1 2025 vs year-earlier. Narrower export price-discount points to more...

Base Oil News

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 31 March

Global base oils prices slip relative to firmer feedstock/competing fuel prices. Base oils margins in most markets remain at levels that point to...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 31 March

US base oils prices mostly stay in narrow range vs VGO prices, contrast with surging premium to VGO this time a year ago. Margins hold in narrow...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 31 March

US base oils demand typically rises around this time of year to meet seasonal pick-up in lube consumption. US spot base oils prices mostly hold...

Base Oil News

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy $XLE to Market Weight; Downgrading Technology $XLK to Underweight; Cautious if...

Vermilion Research

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