Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

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We are downgrading Consumer Discretionary to market weight as retail breakdowns and continued weakness in homebuilders and major autos has led to price and RS uptrend violations for the Sector. Reduce exposure.</li>
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Many major indexes testing support. We cover the S&amp;P 500, Dow, small-caps, PHLX Semiconductor, international developed and emerging markets, which are all at logical support areas. While we expect to see these indexes firm up at current levels based on YTD trends, the potential for breakdowns is not far off.</li>
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Big picture trends. The cyclicals  vs. staples ratio remains elevated and has not broken down. Something similar can be said of the growth vs. value ratio, where the uptrend remains intact.</li>
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In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy, Consumer Staples, Materials, and Utilities.</li>
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We are downgrading Consumer Discretionary to market weight as retail breakdowns and continued weakness in homebuilders and major autos has led to price and RS uptrend violations for the Sector. Reduce exposure.

Many major indexes testing support. We cover the S&amp;P 500, Dow, small-caps, PHLX Semiconductor, international developed and emerging markets, which are all at logical support areas. While we expect to see these indexes firm up at current levels based on YTD trends, the potential for breakdowns is not far off.

Big picture trends. The cyclicals  vs. staples ratio remains elevated and has not broken down. Something similar can be said of the growth vs. value ratio, where the uptrend remains intact.

In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy, Consumer Staples, Materials, and Utilities.


Yield Surge Tests Equities; Downgrading Discretionary

Asia Ex-J Consumer/ Transport analyst

Valerie Law, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

WH Group's share price plunged about 10% yesterday on news that China plans a 25% tariff on US Pork imports (Source: <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-22/trump-orders-50-billion-hit-on-china-goods-amid-trade-war-fears" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>). The company's share price recovered some ground as the market could be expecting a strong set of results for FY17, which will be released early next week. In this article, I present two scenarios based on the impact of such a tariff on their packaged meat segment. Although both scenarios suggest a short-term pressure on EBIT margins by 1-1.5 ppt, the company may be able to reverse the dent in their group margins in the long run if they can achieve a speedy diversification of meat sources.

WH Group's share price plunged about 10% yesterday on news that China plans a 25% tariff on US Pork imports (Source: Bloomberg). The company's share price recovered some ground as the market could be expecting a strong set of results for FY17, which will be released early next week. In this article, I present two scenarios based on the impact of such a tariff on their packaged meat segment. Although both scenarios suggest a short-term pressure on EBIT margins by 1-1.5 ppt, the company may be able to reverse the dent in their group margins in the long run if they can achieve a speedy diversification of meat sources.

WH Group: China's Pork Tariffs Could Trim EBIT Margins by 1 to 1.5ppt Near Term

Brazil

BRF SA is a food processor with a portfolio that includes established brands in Brazil and abroad, such as Sadia, Perdigao, Qualy, Chester, Perdix and Paty. The Company provides meat (poultry and pork), foods processed of meats, pizzas, pastas and frozen vegetables business segments. BRF SA is present in European, Latin American, Middle Eastern, African, Eurasian and Asian Markets.

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BRF SA (BRFS3 BZ)

Yield Surge Tests Equities; Downgrading Discretionary

We are downgrading Consumer Discretionary to market weight as retail breakdowns and continued weakness in homebuilders and major autos has led to...

Vermilion Research

WH Group: China's Pork Tariffs Could Trim EBIT Margins by 1 to 1.5ppt Near Term

WH Group's share price plunged about 10% yesterday on news that China plans a 25% tariff on US Pork imports (Source: Bloomberg). The company's...

Valerie Law, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)