China Specialist, Auto and Industrial Specialist

Victoria Li

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Dongfeng announced 12%-35% subsidy on its retail price to reverse weak sales which has seen most of its factories suspending production</li>
<li>This has triggered a price war with more than 30 brands joining with similar ranges of price discounts/subsidies, most of which are JV brands - some upto 50%</li>
<li>We see a possibility that some of the JV brands exit China this year</li>
</ul>


Dongfeng announced 12%-35% subsidy on its retail price to reverse weak sales which has seen most of its factories suspending production
This has triggered a price war with more than 30 brands joining with similar ranges of price discounts/subsidies, most of which are JV brands - some upto 50%
We see a possibility that some of the JV brands exit China this year


China Auto: ICE Price War Triggered by Dongfeng, JV Players Under Pressure

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 35 adds and 28 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 527.</li>
<li>We expect 29 of the 35 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 20 of the 28 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>19 stocks could be deleted from Stock Connect only since their average market cap has dropped below HK$5bn- unless the new threshold of HK$4bn is approved in the next week.</li>
</ul>


There are 35 adds and 28 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 527.
We expect 29 of the 35 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 20 of the 28 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
19 stocks could be deleted from Stock Connect only since their average market cap has dropped below HK$5bn- unless the new threshold of HK$4bn is approved in the next week.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 35 Adds, 28 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

Brilliance China Automotive / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.</li>
<li>We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. </li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.
We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. 
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

<ul>
<li>We see 3 potential adds for the HSCI in December. We also see 26 potential adds and 16 potential deletes for the index in March.</li>
<li>Following the March rebalance, we see 22 potential inclusions to Stock Connect while we expect 37 stocks to be removed from the link.</li>
<li>Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see 3 potential adds for the HSCI in December. We also see 26 potential adds and 16 potential deletes for the index in March.
Following the March rebalance, we see 22 potential inclusions to Stock Connect while we expect 37 stocks to be removed from the link.
Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Changes at the Margins

Equity Bottom-Up

Brilliance China Automotive / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>No substantive progress is achieved on Brilliance Group’s bankruptcy restructuring so far.</li>
<li>Besides estimated max Rmb6 per share, or HKD6.5 per share special dividend 2022E, shareholders may get more cash dividends in the next few years</li>
<li>Our enterprise value analysis shows Brilliance China’s fair value could be as high as HHD21.9 per share, including estimated HKD6.5 per share special dividend 2022E.</li>
</ul>


No substantive progress is achieved on Brilliance Group’s bankruptcy restructuring so far.
Besides estimated max Rmb6 per share, or HKD6.5 per share special dividend 2022E, shareholders may get more cash dividends in the next few years
Our enterprise value analysis shows Brilliance China’s fair value could be as high as HHD21.9 per share, including estimated HKD6.5 per share special dividend 2022E.


Brilliance China: Parent Restructuring Overhang May Continue, but Dividends Itself Provide Upside

Hong Kong

Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes minibuses and sedans in the People's Republic of China.  The Company also manufactures and trades automotive components.

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Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK)

China Auto: ICE Price War Triggered by Dongfeng, JV Players Under Pressure

Dongfeng's irrational sales promitions announced last weekend has triggered a price war with more than 30 brands joining with similar ranges of...

Victoria Li

HSCI Index Rebalance: 35 Adds, 28 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

There are 35 adds & 28 deletes for the HSCI in March leading to 29 adds & 20 deletes for Stock Connect. 19 index constituents could be dropped from...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

We forecast 44 adds/19 deletes for the HSCI in March leading to 37 adds/deletes for Southbound Stock Connect. There could be more Connect changes...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Changes at the Margins

We see 3 inclusions for the index in Dec, and then 26 adds/16 deletions in March. Following the March rebal, we see 22 adds/37 deletions for Stock...

Brian Freitas

Brilliance China: Parent Restructuring Overhang May Continue, but Dividends Itself Provide Upside

No substantive progress is achieved on Brilliance Group’s bankruptcy restructuring so far. Besides estimated max HKD6.5 per share special dividend...

Victoria Li

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