External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Sharekhan

Sharekhan

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Sharekhan is India's leading broking house providing services from easy online trading, research to wide array of financial products. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Britannia posted 8% y-o-y revenue growth in Q3FY25, led by ~6% volume growth (higher than 3-5% estimated).</li><li>Gross margin/OPM fell by 515/90 bps y-o-y due to high input cost inflation. Adjusted PAT grew 4% y-o-y.</li><li>Focus on innovation, distribution expansion, revamped urban RTM, marketing, pricing actions, and dairy capacity expansion will drive growth in the medium-long term. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Britannia posted 8% y-o-y revenue growth in Q3FY25, led by ~6% volume growth (higher than 3-5% estimated).Gross margin/OPM fell by 515/90 bps y-o-y due to high input cost inflation. Adjusted PAT grew 4% y-o-y.Focus on innovation, distribution expansion, revamped urban RTM, marketing, pricing actions, and dairy capacity expansion will drive growth in the medium-long term. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Britannia Industries Ltd - Volumes Maintained in Tough Times; High RM Inflation Hits Margins

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladher is one of India's leading research based financial services organisation.

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>We increase our FY25/FY26/FY27 EPS estimates by 5.7/2.6/1.1% despite urban slowdown and 11% input cost inflation on account of 1) Sustained leadership in Biscuits and Bakery with volume growth of 8/8/6% in 1Q/2Q/3Q25 in tough market environment</li><li>2) little threat from new B2C players in its business given long history of presence of local, and regional players</li><li>3) rising scalability in adjacencies like Milkshakes and Croissants (~Rs.2bn sales each)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We increase our FY25/FY26/FY27 EPS estimates by 5.7/2.6/1.1% despite urban slowdown and 11% input cost inflation on account of 1) Sustained leadership in Biscuits and Bakery with volume growth of 8/8/6% in 1Q/2Q/3Q25 in tough market environment2) little threat from new B2C players in its business given long history of presence of local, and regional players3) rising scalability in adjacencies like Milkshakes and Croissants (~Rs.2bn sales each)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Britannia Industries - Strong Growth Levers Across Categories

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the review period now complete, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> in March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-housing-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43675:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swiggy-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35630:1" rel="noopener">Swiggy (SWIGGY IN)</a> are a hair's breadth apart on market cap and only one of them could be added to the index.</li>
<li>With quantitative criteria now being used to add stocks to the F&amp;O segment, it is possible there is no change to the index methodology to limit inclusion to F&amp;O members.</li>
</ul>


With the review period now complete, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in March.

Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN) and Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) are a hair's breadth apart on market cap and only one of them could be added to the index.
With quantitative criteria now being used to add stocks to the F&amp;O segment, it is possible there is no change to the index methodology to limit inclusion to F&amp;O members.


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Final List of Potential Changes in March

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Britannia's Q3FY25 results: Britannia's Q3FY25 results exceeded our estimates on all fronts.</li><li>Despite a subdued demand environment, the company’s consolidated revenue grew by 6.5% YoY (versus our estimate of 5%), driven by a 6% YoY volume growth.</li><li>Management indicated a 6-6.5% cumulative price hike, with a 2% increase implemented in Q3, 2.5% planned for Q4, and an additional 1.5% in Q1FY26 to mitigate an 11% inflation impact.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Britannia's Q3FY25 results: Britannia's Q3FY25 results exceeded our estimates on all fronts.Despite a subdued demand environment, the company’s consolidated revenue grew by 6.5% YoY (versus our estimate of 5%), driven by a 6% YoY volume growth.Management indicated a 6-6.5% cumulative price hike, with a 2% increase implemented in Q3, 2.5% planned for Q4, and an additional 1.5% in Q1FY26 to mitigate an 11% inflation impact.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Britannia Industries Ltd - Pricing Led Top Line Growth; Maintain HOLD

<ul>
<li>Following their inclusion in the F&amp;O segment in November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jio-financial-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40042:1" rel="noopener">Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN)</a> appear to be sure-shot inclusions to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> in March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-petroleum-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10222:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN)</a> is a certain deletion from the index. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries</a>' average free-float market cap is less than 0.004% below <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp</a>'s. It's very close.</li>
<li>Passive trackers need to trade between 3.7-11.8 days of ADV on the stocks. The impact increases significantly to between 8.4-21.8 days of delivery volume to trade on the stocks.</li>
</ul>


Following their inclusion in the F&amp;O segment in November, Zomato (ZOMATO IN) and Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) appear to be sure-shot inclusions to the NIFTY Index in March.

Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN) is a certain deletion from the index. Britannia Industries' average free-float market cap is less than 0.004% below Hero Motocorp's. It's very close.
Passive trackers need to trade between 3.7-11.8 days of ADV on the stocks. The impact increases significantly to between 8.4-21.8 days of delivery volume to trade on the stocks.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Secure; Tight Among the Deletes

India

Britannia Industries Ltd is an Indian multinational food products company, primarily manufacturing and selling biscuits, bread, and dairy products. Approximately 80% of its revenue comes from biscuit products, with popular brands like Good Day, Marie Gold, and Tiger. The company is headquartered in Kolkata, India, and was founded in 1892.

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Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)

Britannia Industries Ltd - Volumes Maintained in Tough Times; High RM Inflation Hits Margins

Britannia posted 8% y-o-y revenue growth in Q3FY25, led by ~6% volume growth (higher than 3-5% estimated). Gross margin/OPM fell by 515/90 bps y-o...

Sharekhan

Britannia Industries - Strong Growth Levers Across Categories

We estimate 1.2% EPS growth in FY25 but 15% PAT CAGR over FY25-27. We value the stock at 50x Mar’27EPS and assign a target price of Rs5881 (Rs5815...

Prabhudas Lilladhar

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Final List of Potential Changes in March

There could be 7 changes for the NIFTYJR in March. The forecast adds have underperformed since the start of the year as momentum has sold off....

Brian Freitas

Britannia Industries Ltd - Pricing Led Top Line Growth; Maintain HOLD

Despite a subdued demand environment, the company’s consolidated revenue grew by 6.5% YoY (versus our estimate of 5%), driven by a 6% YoY volume...

Axis Direct

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Secure; Tight Among the Deletes

Zomato and JioFin should replace BPCL and Britannia in March. Hero Motors just avoids deletion for now. Passives need to trade 3.7-11.8x ADV (8.4...

Brian Freitas

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