Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Under the US tariffs, we have to seriously consider whether <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> can achieve 25% growth in 2025.  </li>
<li>We have conducted two scenario analyses and anticipate a likely loss of above 8.5% in 2025 revenue for TSMC, especially related to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a>.  </li>
<li>The stock price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is expected to be somewhat reshuffled in the current US-China tariff environment.  </li>
</ul>


Under the US tariffs, we have to seriously consider whether Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) can achieve 25% growth in 2025.  
We have conducted two scenario analyses and anticipate a likely loss of above 8.5% in 2025 revenue for TSMC, especially related to Apple (AAPL US).  
The stock price of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is expected to be somewhat reshuffled in the current US-China tariff environment.  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>The latest TSMC taking over Intel Foundry was on 13 March and involved joint investments by AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, Qualcomm. Complicated.</li>
<li>Yesterday, TSMC Board member and Taiwan Minister of National Development Paul LIU flatly denied: “such a topic has never been discussed at the board level”.</li>
<li>As a result, Intel stock declined -6% yesterday. TSMC has corrected by -16% since early Feb. The stock is at average valuations, no obvious upside to Consensus.</li>
</ul>


The latest TSMC taking over Intel Foundry was on 13 March and involved joint investments by AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, Qualcomm. Complicated.
Yesterday, TSMC Board member and Taiwan Minister of National Development Paul LIU flatly denied: “such a topic has never been discussed at the board level”.
As a result, Intel stock declined -6% yesterday. TSMC has corrected by -16% since early Feb. The stock is at average valuations, no obvious upside to Consensus.


TSMC Takeover of Intel: An Official Denial

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global semiconductor sales for the month of January 2025 hit $56.5 billion, an increase of 17.9% YoY, but down 1.7% MoM</li>
<li>TSMC is also off to an excellent start in 2025. YTD revenues through February are up 39.2%.</li>
<li>2025 Semi forecast? Think 2024 without the memory boom and way more volatility</li>
</ul>


Global semiconductor sales for the month of January 2025 hit $56.5 billion, an increase of 17.9% YoY, but down 1.7% MoM
TSMC is also off to an excellent start in 2025. YTD revenues through February are up 39.2%.
2025 Semi forecast? Think 2024 without the memory boom and way more volatility


Semiconductors. Key Indicator Updates, 2024 In Review, 2025 Forecasts

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Google Diversifying from Broadcom to Mediatek for Next Generation AI Chip</li>
<li>Hon Hai CEO: Clients' U.S.-Based Tech Manufacturing Set To Expand</li>
<li>Memory Monitor: Multiple Reports Indicate Rising NAND &amp; DRAM Prices</li>
</ul>


Google Diversifying from Broadcom to Mediatek for Next Generation AI Chip
Hon Hai CEO: Clients' U.S.-Based Tech Manufacturing Set To Expand
Memory Monitor: Multiple Reports Indicate Rising NAND &amp; DRAM Prices


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek Wins Google AI Chip from Broadcom; Hon Hai to Expand U.S. Production

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$15.5bn across the Select Sector indices and the S&amp;P500 Equal Weight Index.</li>
<li>The Select Sector index trackers and S&amp;P500 Equal Weight trackers will need to buy the adds to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P500 INDEX</a> and sell the deletes, further increasing flow for the stocks.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF will be selling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom (AVGO US)</a> at the same time as the Select Sector and S&amp;P500 Equal Weight Index trackers.</li>
</ul>


Constituent changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$15.5bn across the Select Sector indices and the S&amp;P500 Equal Weight Index.
The Select Sector index trackers and S&amp;P500 Equal Weight trackers will need to buy the adds to the S&amp;P500 INDEX and sell the deletes, further increasing flow for the stocks.
The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF will be selling Broadcom (AVGO US) at the same time as the Select Sector and S&amp;P500 Equal Weight Index trackers.


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$15.5bn Flow Post Capping

United States

Broadcom Inc. designs, develops, and supplies semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The Company offers storage adapters, controllers, networking processors, motion control encoders, and optical sensors, as well as infrastructure and security software to modernize, optimize, and secure the most complex hybrid environments. Broadcom serves customers worldwide.

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Broadcom (AVGO US)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)

US tariffs may hinder Taiwan Semiconductor's growth, with potential revenue loss in 2025, particularly from Apple, impacting stock price reshuffling.

Patrick Liao

TSMC Takeover of Intel: An Official Denial

TSMC's rumored takeover of Intel Foundry denied by board member, causing Intel stock to decline -6%. TSMC stock has corrected by -16% since early...

Nicolas Baratte

Semiconductors. Key Indicator Updates, 2024 In Review, 2025 Forecasts

2025 Semi forecast? Think 2024 without the memory boom and way more volatility. Chaos will ultimately beget opportunity, just not yet...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek Wins Google AI Chip from Broadcom; Hon Hai to Expand U.S. Production

Google is switching from Broadcom to Mediatek for AI chips, Hon Hai CEO predicts growth in U.S.-based tech manufacturing, and reports show...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$15.5bn Flow Post Capping

Constituent changes to the S&P 500 Index and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$15.45bn across the Select Sector indices and...

Brian Freitas

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TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)

​US tariffs may hinder Taiwan Semiconductor's growth, with potential revenue loss in 2025, particularly from Apple, impacting stock price reshuffling.

Patrick Liao

TSMC Takeover of Intel: An Official Denial

​TSMC's rumored takeover of Intel Foundry denied by board member, causing Intel stock to decline -6%. TSMC stock has corrected by -16% since early...

Nicolas Baratte

Semiconductors. Key Indicator Updates, 2024 In Review, 2025 Forecasts

2025 Semi forecast? Think 2024 without the memory boom and way more volatility. Chaos will ultimately beget opportunity, just not yet...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek Wins Google AI Chip from Broadcom; Hon Hai to Expand U.S. Production

​Google is switching from Broadcom to Mediatek for AI chips, Hon Hai CEO predicts growth in U.S.-based tech manufacturing, and reports show...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$15.5bn Flow Post Capping

Constituent changes to the S&P 500 Index and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$15.45bn across the Select Sector indices and...

Brian Freitas

US tariffs may hinder Taiwan Semiconductor's growth, with potential revenue loss in 2025, particularly from Apple, impacting stock price reshuffling.

TSMC's rumored takeover of Intel Foundry denied by board member, causing Intel stock to decline -6%. TSMC stock has corrected by -16% since early...

Google is switching from Broadcom to Mediatek for AI chips, Hon Hai CEO predicts growth in U.S.-based tech manufacturing, and reports show...