Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: The price ratio of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> vs. the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Index </a>has deviated more than three standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
 Highlight: Going long the  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng (HSI INDEX)</a> and short the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 (NDX INDEX)</a>  targets a 7% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The price ratio of the Hang Seng Index vs. the Nasdaq-100 Index has deviated more than three standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

 Highlight: Going long the  Hang Seng (HSI INDEX) and short the Nasdaq-100 (NDX INDEX)  targets a 7% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Hang Seng (HSI) Vs Nasdaq-100 (NDX): Nasdaq Surge Pushes Pair to Three-Sigma Dislocation

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>It’s all about Server CPU. Demand is boosted by AI Inference &amp; Agentic, tightness supports price hikes, revenue growth is improving, margins improving. Server CPU is the driver of 2026-27.</li>
<li>Some downside risk to PC demand (Memory prices). It’s a bit better on the Foundry side, but still very large losses that require multiple quarters of improvement.</li>
<li>Bullish forecasts. Consensus EPS for '28 is $1.7. I can get to $5, Intel is trading at 17x '28 EPS. NVDA at 14.5 FY29 EPS, TSM at 13.6x 2028 EPS. </li>
</ul>


It’s all about Server CPU. Demand is boosted by AI Inference &amp; Agentic, tightness supports price hikes, revenue growth is improving, margins improving. Server CPU is the driver of 2026-27.
Some downside risk to PC demand (Memory prices). It’s a bit better on the Foundry side, but still very large losses that require multiple quarters of improvement.
Bullish forecasts. Consensus EPS for '28 is $1.7. I can get to $5, Intel is trading at 17x '28 EPS. NVDA at 14.5 FY29 EPS, TSM at 13.6x 2028 EPS. 


Intel. It’s a Lot Better Thanks to Server CPU Demand. Let’s Look at Very Bullish Forecasts

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Both the surge in industrial commodity imports and excavator sales in February confirm the rebound in Chinese fixed investment led by infrastructure, but with housing also now picking up.</li>
<li>Sales of excavators reached a 15-year high - Komatsu reported real-time utilization rates on its machines in China soaring 85% y/y last month</li>
<li>Housing sales by value rose 22.7% y/y for Jan/Feb and investment in real-estate development rose 8.9% in the first two months, versus 6.9% over last year.</li>
<li>Prices seem to be…</li>
</ul>


Both the surge in industrial commodity imports and excavator sales in February confirm the rebound in Chinese fixed investment led by infrastructure, but with housing also now picking up.
Sales of excavators reached a 15-year high - Komatsu reported real-time utilization rates on its machines in China soaring 85% y/y last month
Housing sales by value rose 22.7% y/y for Jan/Feb and investment in real-estate development rose 8.9% in the first two months, versus 6.9% over last year.
Prices seem to be…


As China Digs for Growth, Can Korea Break Chaebol Dominance?

<ul>
<li>The secular overweight since 2012 to semiconductor growth themes including sensor, parallel processing and communication chip stocks has outperformed wider tech indices.</li>
<li>The explosion in video steaming, cloud computing and the shift toward semi-autonomous vehicles as well as the huge computational intensity of AI software are all key drivers through end decade.</li>
<li>Global semiconductor industry sales saw accelerating growth from mid-2016, with Q4 sales of $93bn 12.3% higher y/y - semiconductors are…</li>
</ul>


The secular overweight since 2012 to semiconductor growth themes including sensor, parallel processing and communication chip stocks has outperformed wider tech indices.
The explosion in video steaming, cloud computing and the shift toward semi-autonomous vehicles as well as the huge computational intensity of AI software are all key drivers through end decade.
Global semiconductor industry sales saw accelerating growth from mid-2016, with Q4 sales of $93bn 12.3% higher y/y - semiconductors are…


Structural and Cyclical Drivers Underpin Semiconductor Outperformance

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

The "internet of things" (IoT) concept is in its nascent stage of development, but it is on the verge of exploding. To put its development into context of another more recent phenomenon, this is the stage of development in which MySpace was attracting the earliest adopters in the then-burgeoning social media industry. Simply stated, there are many more iterations of the IoT universe until this concept reaches public consciousness.Even so, as consumers, devices and now things become more connected, the possibilities in terms of what could be leveraged as a vehicle for enabling commerce are now endless. In time, the idea of a smartphone as a commerce device could be old news as commerce moves beyond simply portable consumer devices to include durable goods, such as refrigerators, washing machines or automobiles.

The "internet of things" (IoT) concept is in its nascent stage of development, but it is on the verge of exploding. To put its development into context of another more recent phenomenon, this is the stage of development in which MySpace was attracting the earliest adopters in the then-burgeoning social media industry. Simply stated, there are many more iterations of the IoT universe until this concept reaches public consciousness.Even so, as consumers, devices and now things become more connected, the possibilities in terms of what could be leveraged as a vehicle for enabling commerce are now endless. In time, the idea of a smartphone as a commerce device could be old news as commerce moves beyond simply portable consumer devices to include durable goods, such as refrigerators, washing machines or automobiles.

5 Ways The Internet Of Things Will Influence Commerce

United States

Broadcom Inc. designs, develops, and supplies semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The Company offers storage adapters, controllers, networking processors, motion control encoders, and optical sensors, as well as infrastructure and security software to modernize, optimize, and secure the most complex hybrid environments. Broadcom serves customers worldwide.

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Broadcom (AVGO US)

Hang Seng (HSI) Vs Nasdaq-100 (NDX): Nasdaq Surge Pushes Pair to Three-Sigma Dislocation

7% target return as the cross-market spread moves to a three-sigma extreme following the Nasdaq rally, highlighting a rare relative value...

Gaudenz Schneider

Intel. It’s a Lot Better Thanks to Server CPU Demand. Let’s Look at Very Bullish Forecasts

Server CPU driven by AI Inference & Agentic, leading to price hikes and margins improvement. PC demand downside risk (memory prices). Bullish...

Nicolas Baratte

As China Digs for Growth, Can Korea Break Chaebol Dominance?

Both the surge in industrial commodity imports and excavator sales in February confirm the rebound in Chinese fixed investment led by...

Sean Maher

Structural and Cyclical Drivers Underpin Semiconductor Outperformance

The secular overweight since 2012 to semiconductor growth themes including sensor, parallel processing and communication chip stocks has...

Sean Maher

5 Ways The Internet Of Things Will Influence Commerce

The "internet of things" (IoT) concept is in its nascent stage of development, but it is on the verge of exploding. To put its development into...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Hang Seng (HSI) Vs Nasdaq-100 (NDX): Nasdaq Surge Pushes Pair to Three-Sigma Dislocation

7% target return as the cross-market spread moves to a three-sigma extreme following the Nasdaq rally, highlighting a rare relative value...

Gaudenz Schneider

Intel. It’s a Lot Better Thanks to Server CPU Demand. Let’s Look at Very Bullish Forecasts

​Server CPU driven by AI Inference & Agentic, leading to price hikes and margins improvement. PC demand downside risk (memory prices). Bullish...

Nicolas Baratte

As China Digs for Growth, Can Korea Break Chaebol Dominance?

Both the surge in industrial commodity imports and excavator sales in February confirm the rebound in Chinese fixed investment led by...

Sean Maher

Structural and Cyclical Drivers Underpin Semiconductor Outperformance

The secular overweight since 2012 to semiconductor growth themes including sensor, parallel processing and communication chip stocks has...

Sean Maher

5 Ways The Internet Of Things Will Influence Commerce

The "internet of things" (IoT) concept is in its nascent stage of development, but it is on the verge of exploding. To put its development into...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Server CPU driven by AI Inference & Agentic, leading to price hikes and margins improvement. PC demand downside risk (memory prices). Bullish...