IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bloomberg <a href="https://news.bloomberglaw.com/mergers-and-acquisitions/esr-bidders-said-to-weigh-bringing-in-more-investors-for-buyout" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a> that the bidding consortium is in talks to bring in other partners, such as QIA, PIF, and CPP Investment Board, to aid in privatising <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Warburg Pincus and OMERS have blocking stakes for a Cayman scheme. Warburg Pincus is seemingly supportive, and the consortium’s expansion talks suggest confidence in meeting OMERS’ price expectations.</li>
<li>Our best guess is that an offer is around HK$14.00. ESR’s current valuation is undemanding, with its forward EV/EBITDA multiple at a 40% discount compared to the median peers’ multiple.</li>
</ul>


Bloomberg reports that the bidding consortium is in talks to bring in other partners, such as QIA, PIF, and CPP Investment Board, to aid in privatising ESR Group (1821 HK).
Warburg Pincus and OMERS have blocking stakes for a Cayman scheme. Warburg Pincus is seemingly supportive, and the consortium’s expansion talks suggest confidence in meeting OMERS’ price expectations.
Our best guess is that an offer is around HK$14.00. ESR’s current valuation is undemanding, with its forward EV/EBITDA multiple at a 40% discount compared to the median peers’ multiple.


ESR Group (1821 HK): Consortium’s Expansion Talks Suggest Progress

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure L / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brookfield-asset-management-lt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23741:1" rel="noopener">Brookfield Asset Management Lt (BAM US)</a> aims to raise around US$278m via selling 23.3% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dalrymple-bay-infrastructure-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41235:1" rel="noopener">Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure L (DBI AU).</a>
</li>
<li>The shares have performed well over the last year or so, with the company having delivered consistent DPU growth.</li>
<li>In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Brookfield Asset Management Lt (BAM US) aims to raise around US$278m via selling 23.3% of Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure L (DBI AU).

The shares have performed well over the last year or so, with the company having delivered consistent DPU growth.
In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Dalrymple Bay Infra Placement - Good Track Record but Might Be Too Chunky

<ul>
<li>The precondition for the consortium scheme offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a> has been satisfied. The scheme document will be despatched by 22 May.</li>
<li>The consortium has disclosed an additional irrevocable. Total irrevocables and letters of support represent 35.01% of outstanding shares (58.24% of disinterested shares).</li>
<li>This is a done deal, helped by the material derating of peers. At the last close and for an early August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.3%/21.3%</li>
</ul>


The precondition for the consortium scheme offer for ESR Group (1821 HK) has been satisfied. The scheme document will be despatched by 22 May.
The consortium has disclosed an additional irrevocable. Total irrevocables and letters of support represent 35.01% of outstanding shares (58.24% of disinterested shares).
This is a done deal, helped by the material derating of peers. At the last close and for an early August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.3%/21.3%


ESR Group (1821 HK): Precondition Satisfied

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Brookfield has renewed takeover interest in Grifols after a failed bid, signaling confidence in the company’s turnaround and prompting investor speculation about a significantly improved future offer.</li>
<li>Grifols’ financial position has strengthened with a 4.6x Net Debt/EBITDA, €504 million in free cash flow, and strategic refinancing, reducing the likelihood of a capital increase and supporting shareholder value.</li>
<li>Grifols B shares trade at a 21.6% discount to A shares, offering an attractive convergence opportunity, as bylaws mandate equal treatment in the event of a public acquisition offer.</li>
</ul>


Brookfield has renewed takeover interest in Grifols after a failed bid, signaling confidence in the company’s turnaround and prompting investor speculation about a significantly improved future offer.
Grifols’ financial position has strengthened with a 4.6x Net Debt/EBITDA, €504 million in free cash flow, and strategic refinancing, reducing the likelihood of a capital increase and supporting shareholder value.
Grifols B shares trade at a 21.6% discount to A shares, offering an attractive convergence opportunity, as bylaws mandate equal treatment in the event of a public acquisition offer.


Blood, Sweat, and Bids: Grifols Draws Renewed Interest from Brookfield

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a>’s preconditional scheme offer from the consortium is either cash (HK$13.00), scrip or a combination of cash/scrip. The offer is final.</li>
<li>On 7 March, the consortium disclosed two additional irrevocable (3.47% of outstanding shares) and satisfied two regulatory preconditions (UK FCA and Singapore MAS).</li>
<li>Since announcing the offer, peers have materially derated, lowering the vote risk. At the last close and for an end August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.5%/10.1%</li>
</ul>



ESR Group (1821 HK)’s preconditional scheme offer from the consortium is either cash (HK$13.00), scrip or a combination of cash/scrip. The offer is final.
On 7 March, the consortium disclosed two additional irrevocable (3.47% of outstanding shares) and satisfied two regulatory preconditions (UK FCA and Singapore MAS).
Since announcing the offer, peers have materially derated, lowering the vote risk. At the last close and for an end August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.5%/10.1%


Canada

Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. operates as an investment management firm. The Company focuses on property development, renewable energy, infrastructure, insurance, and private equity. Brookfield Asset Management serves customers worldwide.

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Brookfield Asset Management Lt (BAM US)

ESR Group (1821 HK): Consortium’s Expansion Talks Suggest Progress

The probability of an offer remains high, and the latest Bloomberg reports suggest progress towards a binding proposal. Our best guess is that an...

Arun George

Dalrymple Bay Infra Placement - Good Track Record but Might Be Too Chunky

Brookfield Asset Management Lt (BAM US) aims to raise around US$278m via selling 23.3% of Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure L (DBI AU).

Sumeet Singh

ESR Group (1821 HK): Precondition Satisfied

This is a done deal, helped by irrevocables and the material derating of peers. At the last close and for an early August payment, the gross...

Arun George

Blood, Sweat, and Bids: Grifols Draws Renewed Interest from Brookfield

Brookfield's renewed interest in Grifols signals confidence in its turnaround, with strengthened financials and potential for improved future...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

ESR Group (1821 HK): Steady Progress

The additional irrevocable and material derating of peers lowers the vote risk. The consortium is making steady progress in satisfying the...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ESR Group (1821 HK): Consortium’s Expansion Talks Suggest Progress

The probability of an offer remains high, and the latest Bloomberg reports suggest progress towards a binding proposal. Our best guess is that an...

Arun George

Dalrymple Bay Infra Placement - Good Track Record but Might Be Too Chunky

Brookfield Asset Management Lt (BAM US) aims to raise around US$278m via selling 23.3% of Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure L (DBI AU).

Sumeet Singh

ESR Group (1821 HK): Precondition Satisfied

This is a done deal, helped by irrevocables and the material derating of peers. At the last close and for an early August payment, the gross...

Arun George

Blood, Sweat, and Bids: Grifols Draws Renewed Interest from Brookfield

​Brookfield's renewed interest in Grifols signals confidence in its turnaround, with strengthened financials and potential for improved future...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

ESR Group (1821 HK): Steady Progress

The additional irrevocable and material derating of peers lowers the vote risk. The consortium is making steady progress in satisfying the...

Arun George

Brookfield's renewed interest in Grifols signals confidence in its turnaround, with strengthened financials and potential for improved future...