European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Grifols' founding families and Brookfield ask the Board for the necessary information to evaluate an offer for 100% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grifols-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21274:1" rel="noopener">Grifols SA (GRF SM)</a>. The CNMV has halted trading in the shares.</li>
<li>Grifols is worth €5.5 billion, after plummeting 39% in 2024. The deal smacks of desperation from the founding families, worried not to lose control of the company to debt holders. </li>
<li>There should be a minimum premium to guarantee offer success, at least 15% to current share price (maybe even 30%). B shares are protected in case of takeover.</li>
</ul>


Grifols' founding families and Brookfield ask the Board for the necessary information to evaluate an offer for 100% of Grifols SA (GRF SM). The CNMV has halted trading in the shares.
Grifols is worth €5.5 billion, after plummeting 39% in 2024. The deal smacks of desperation from the founding families, worried not to lose control of the company to debt holders. 
There should be a minimum premium to guarantee offer success, at least 15% to current share price (maybe even 30%). B shares are protected in case of takeover.


<ul>
<li>On June 24, a share purchase agreement was signed between Brookfield and several shareholders, to acquire 53.12% of Neoen's outstanding shares at €39.85/share. Brookfield has also received irrevocables for 4.36%.</li>
<li>The offer price is generous and this looks a done deal. Spread 5.19%/7.29% (gross/annualised) seems interesting in spite of the longer approval process in energy deals.</li>
<li>The convertible NEOEN 2.875 14-SEP-2027 has a balanced profile. It is trading at (mid) 100.75 (vs. €37.82), vs. a fair price estimate of 113.773.</li>
</ul>


On June 24, a share purchase agreement was signed between Brookfield and several shareholders, to acquire 53.12% of Neoen's outstanding shares at €39.85/share. Brookfield has also received irrevocables for 4.36%.
The offer price is generous and this looks a done deal. Spread 5.19%/7.29% (gross/annualised) seems interesting in spite of the longer approval process in energy deals.
The convertible NEOEN 2.875 14-SEP-2027 has a balanced profile. It is trading at (mid) 100.75 (vs. €37.82), vs. a fair price estimate of 113.773.


Brookfield/Neoen: Share Purchase Agreement, Spread and Convertibles

Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Welcome back to the portfolio updates series!
</li>
<li>
I recently read Michael J. Mauboussin’s book, More Than You Know, which is full of practical investment lessons drawn from various fields not necessarily related to investing.
</li>
<li>
The quote below is from a chapter discussing market efficiency and cautioning investors against misusing behavioral finance to conclude that humans are irrational, and therefore, markets must be irrational as well.
</li>
</ul>



Welcome back to the portfolio updates series!


I recently read Michael J. Mauboussin’s book, More Than You Know, which is full of practical investment lessons drawn from various fields not necessarily related to investing.


The quote below is from a chapter discussing market efficiency and cautioning investors against misusing behavioral finance to conclude that humans are irrational, and therefore, markets must be irrational as well.



Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Colour me perplexed. Murakami Group ran up <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-matsushima-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13569:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)</a>'s share price in acquiring 29%. The pattern was clear, but one assumes everyone in-group was on the same page.</li>
<li>Two activist shareholders. And long only upping its stake. Heavily discounted <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-china-direct-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6862:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)</a> is in play.</li>
<li>A HUGE new buyback for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kansai-paint-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13340:1" rel="noopener">Kansai Paint (4613 JP)</a>. Really big. Buy Kansai Paint vs Nippon Paint. One can buy the pop. One can buy any dips after the pop. </li>
</ul>


Colour me perplexed. Murakami Group ran up Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)'s share price in acquiring 29%. The pattern was clear, but one assumes everyone in-group was on the same page.
Two activist shareholders. And long only upping its stake. Heavily discounted China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK) is in play.
A HUGE new buyback for Kansai Paint (4613 JP). Really big. Buy Kansai Paint vs Nippon Paint. One can buy the pop. One can buy any dips after the pop. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, China Merchants,Kansai Paint, Teijin, Sciclone Pharma

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brookfield-corp-e3b4f84d-56b4-4ae2-87f3-1c3e83138aea" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25297:1" rel="noopener">Brookfield (BN CN)</a> has entered exclusive negotiations with the top shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/neoen-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33002:1" rel="noopener">Neoen (NEOEN FP)</a> to acquire a 53.32% stake at €39.85/share, 26.9% premium, which will trigger a mandatory offer.</li>
<li>The offer represents 15.1x EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA vs. the median of peers at 9.3x. My fair-value estimate (DCF-based) is €33.76/share, therefore the offer is generous, in my view.</li>
<li>Expect the shares to close the spread tomorrow and trade around 3% gross spread and the convertibles to price higher (2% 06/25 at around €51.85, 2.875% 09/27 around 111.72%).</li>
</ul>



Brookfield (BN CN) has entered exclusive negotiations with the top shareholders of Neoen (NEOEN FP) to acquire a 53.32% stake at €39.85/share, 26.9% premium, which will trigger a mandatory offer.
The offer represents 15.1x EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA vs. the median of peers at 9.3x. My fair-value estimate (DCF-based) is €33.76/share, therefore the offer is generous, in my view.
Expect the shares to close the spread tomorrow and trade around 3% gross spread and the convertibles to price higher (2% 06/25 at around €51.85, 2.875% 09/27 around 111.72%).


Brookfield to Launch Mandatory Offer for Neoen

Canada

Brookfield Corporation operates as an asset management company. The Company invests in long-life, high-quality assets and businesses, as well as focuses on real estate, infrastructure, and renewable power sectors. Brookfield serves customers worldwide.

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Brookfield (BN CN)

(Desperate) Takeover Bid in the Making

Grifols' founding families and Brookfield ask the Board for the necessary information to evaluate an offer for 100% of Grifols SA (GRF SM). The...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Portfolio Update: May 2024

Welcome back to the portfolio updates series! I recently read Michael J. Mauboussin’s book, More Than You Know, which is full of practical...

Contrarian Cashflows

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, China Merchants,Kansai Paint, Teijin, Sciclone Pharma

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Brookfield to Launch Mandatory Offer for Neoen

Brookfield (BN CN) has entered exclusive negotiations with the top shareholders of Neoen (NEOEN FP) to acquire a 53.32% stake at €39.85/share,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

(Desperate) Takeover Bid in the Making

Grifols' founding families and Brookfield ask the Board for the necessary information to evaluate an offer for 100% of Grifols SA (GRF SM). The...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Brookfield/Neoen: Share Purchase Agreement, Spread and Convertibles

On June 24, a share purchase agreement was signed between Brookfield and several shareholders, to acquire 53.12% of Neoen's outstanding shares at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Portfolio Update: May 2024

Welcome back to the portfolio updates series! I recently read Michael J. Mauboussin’s book, More Than You Know, which is full of practical...

Contrarian Cashflows

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, China Merchants,Kansai Paint, Teijin, Sciclone Pharma

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Brookfield to Launch Mandatory Offer for Neoen

Brookfield (BN CN) has entered exclusive negotiations with the top shareholders of Neoen (NEOEN FP) to acquire a 53.32% stake at €39.85/share,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar