Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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Welcome back to the portfolio updates series!
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I recently read Michael J. Mauboussin’s book, More Than You Know, which is full of practical investment lessons drawn from various fields not necessarily related to investing.
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The quote below is from a chapter discussing market efficiency and cautioning investors against misusing behavioral finance to conclude that humans are irrational, and therefore, markets must be irrational as well.
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Welcome back to the portfolio updates series!


I recently read Michael J. Mauboussin’s book, More Than You Know, which is full of practical investment lessons drawn from various fields not necessarily related to investing.


The quote below is from a chapter discussing market efficiency and cautioning investors against misusing behavioral finance to conclude that humans are irrational, and therefore, markets must be irrational as well.



Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the resistance at 1,370/1,376 points (25-day EMA/50-day EMA) and the support at 1,360/1,355 points.</li><li>If there are indications of an economic slowdown while inflation remains persistently high, it could negatively impact both the US stock markets and global equity markets.</li><li>This reflects signs of recovery in the UK economy, a crucial factor prompting the FMS in April to increase the investment weight of UK markets.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the resistance at 1,370/1,376 points (25-day EMA/50-day EMA) and the support at 1,360/1,355 points.If there are indications of an economic slowdown while inflation remains persistently high, it could negatively impact both the US stock markets and global equity markets.This reflects signs of recovery in the UK economy, a crucial factor prompting the FMS in April to increase the investment weight of UK markets.

<ul><li>I recently came across a thought-provoking blog post by Andrew Walker on his YAVB discussing the possibility of a bubble forming in quality stocks.</li><li>Although Andrew acknowledged that the title might be seen as provocative, he raised valid concerns about the potential challenges of achieving satisfactory returns in the future by investing in quality-growth-at-a-reasonable-price stocks, given their lofty valuations.</li><li>As an example, he pointed to Costco, which is presently trading at a P/E ratio of 50 despite its long-term expected growth rate only slightly surpassing that of the US GDP.</li></ul>

I recently came across a thought-provoking blog post by Andrew Walker on his YAVB discussing the possibility of a bubble forming in quality stocks.Although Andrew acknowledged that the title might be seen as provocative, he raised valid concerns about the potential challenges of achieving satisfactory returns in the future by investing in quality-growth-at-a-reasonable-price stocks, given their lofty valuations.As an example, he pointed to Costco, which is presently trading at a P/E ratio of 50 despite its long-term expected growth rate only slightly surpassing that of the US GDP.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>Asian bourses rebounded after the US 10-year bond yield dropped, which enabled the SET to rise for the eighth day in a row, even though the market did not have any new positive factors to boost it.</li><li>The index was able to stand above the 200-day EMA line at 1,570 points, clarifying the upward trend and confirming a move back to the 1,600-point level.</li><li>We expect the index to rise further, but investors will have to deal with volatility because the buying has been focused on speculation.</li></ul>

Asian bourses rebounded after the US 10-year bond yield dropped, which enabled the SET to rise for the eighth day in a row, even though the market did not have any new positive factors to boost it.The index was able to stand above the 200-day EMA line at 1,570 points, clarifying the upward trend and confirming a move back to the 1,600-point level.We expect the index to rise further, but investors will have to deal with volatility because the buying has been focused on speculation.

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,523/1,518 points and the resistance at 1,540/1,545 points.</li><li>The key issues today include US and global equity markets potentially being boosted by the expectation that the Fed could decide to maintain interest rates on May 3 (this differs from the market view expecting the Fed to raise the fed funds rate once more).</li><li>We recommend stocks benefiting from the peaking of interest rates and the downtrend of bond yields, namely those in the property sector (AP and QH) and the finance sector (AEONTS).</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,523/1,518 points and the resistance at 1,540/1,545 points.The key issues today include US and global equity markets potentially being boosted by the expectation that the Fed could decide to maintain interest rates on May 3 (this differs from the market view expecting the Fed to raise the fed funds rate once more).We recommend stocks benefiting from the peaking of interest rates and the downtrend of bond yields, namely those in the property sector (AP and QH) and the finance sector (AEONTS).

Canada

Brookfield Corporation operates as an asset management company. The Company invests in long-life, high-quality assets and businesses, as well as focuses on real estate, infrastructure, and renewable power sectors. Brookfield serves customers worldwide.

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Brookfield (BN CN)

Portfolio Update: May 2024

Welcome back to the portfolio updates series! I recently read Michael J. Mauboussin’s book, More Than You Know, which is full of practical...

Contrarian Cashflows

US Employment in April

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the resistance at 1,370/1,376 points (25-day EMA/50-day EMA) and the support at...

Krungthai XSpring

Portfolio Update: April 2024

I recently came across a thought-provoking blog post by Andrew Walker on his YAVB discussing the possibility of a bubble forming in quality...

Contrarian Cashflows

Technical Analysis

Asian bourses rebounded after the US 10-year bond yield dropped, which enabled the SET to rise for the eighth day in a row, even though the market...

Krungthai XSpring

Today's Dominant Ideas

The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,523/1,518 points and the resistance at 1,540/1,545 points. The key issues today include...

Krungthai XSpring

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