Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The market is pricing Ricoh as a terminal print asset, but the company has demonstrated an ability to harvest this asset and grow its cash flows.</li>
<li>Bears confuse managed IT's commodity perimeter with Ricoh's real core. Japanese enterprise document workflows are contractually and culturally sticky, resisting platform automation.</li>
<li>Activist Investors own shares of Ricoh equal to 57 days ADV, and they've increased their position as the stock under-performed. They were too early, but the consensus is late.</li>
</ul>


The market is pricing Ricoh as a terminal print asset, but the company has demonstrated an ability to harvest this asset and grow its cash flows.
Bears confuse managed IT's commodity perimeter with Ricoh's real core. Japanese enterprise document workflows are contractually and culturally sticky, resisting platform automation.
Activist Investors own shares of Ricoh equal to 57 days ADV, and they've increased their position as the stock under-performed. They were too early, but the consensus is late.


Ricoh (7752):  Activists Were Early, the Consensus Is Late

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS SUMMARY - 3rd FEBRUARY •</strong></p><div><p>Of Wednesday's 100 results announcements, 78% scored positively for earnings momentum despite trailing revenues falling by 5.7% on average and a 2.1 percentage point decline in operating margins. Only 8% of companies were in the red for the quarter.  64% of the 53 annual forecasts/revision announcements scored positively, and the average Forecast/Revision score was +1.2 points.</p></div><div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Wednesday's 'best' large-cap announcements came from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hirose-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13513:1" rel="noopener">Hirose Electric (6806 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brother-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6114:1" rel="noopener">Brother Industries (6448 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a>. The 'worst' were from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eisai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21001:1" rel="noopener">Eisai (4523 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-enix-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15003:1" rel="noopener">Square Enix (9684 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a>.  We would also note the relatively modest improvement in the trading companies.</p>
</div><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/186/604/original/2021-02-04_04-53-07.png?1612382019" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="186604"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/186/605/original/2021-02-04_04-54-02.png?1612382054" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="186605"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/186/606/original/2021-02-04_04-54-35.png?1612382089" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="186606"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/186/607/original/2021-02-04_04-55-18.png?1612382134" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="186607"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/186/608/original/2021-02-04_04-56-09.png?1612382183" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="186608"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/186/609/original/2021-02-04_04-56-48.png?1612382221" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="186609"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/186/610/original/2021-02-04_04-57-14.png?1612382245" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="186610"></figure></section><div style="text-align: center;" class="content-caption">     Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>

• RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS SUMMARY - 3rd FEBRUARY •Of Wednesday's 100 results announcements, 78% scored positively for earnings momentum despite trailing revenues falling by 5.7% on average and a 2.1 percentage point decline in operating margins. Only 8% of companies were in the red for the quarter.  64% of the 53 annual forecasts/revision announcements scored positively, and the average Forecast/Revision score was +1.2 points.
• BEST &amp; WORST •
Wednesday's 'best' large-cap announcements came from Hirose Electric (6806 JP), Brother Industries (6448 JP), and Sony (6758 JP). The 'worst' were from Eisai (4523 JP), Square Enix (9684 JP), and Z Holdings (4689 JP).  We would also note the relatively modest improvement in the trading companies.
     Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​02/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​03 Hirose, Eisai..

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

<p>In Japan, high Beta names and names with a high % of Foreign Investors underperformed this week after doing very well the previous week. It has been quite a while since high Beta names have consistently outperformed. However, Retail Investor names continue to do well. </p>

In Japan, high Beta names and names with a high % of Foreign Investors underperformed this week after doing very well the previous week. It has been quite a while since high Beta names have consistently outperformed. However, Retail Investor names continue to do well. 

High Beta and Names with a High % of Foreign Investors Underperformed This Week in Japan....

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

<p>The analyst viewpoint series features interviews with analysts from several of the 46 markets covered in Euromonitor’s Consumer Finance research programme, discussing key payment trends or developments in their respective research markets.</p>

The analyst viewpoint series features interviews with analysts from several of the 46 markets covered in Euromonitor’s Consumer Finance research programme, discussing key payment trends or developments in their respective research markets.

Analyst Viewpoint on Consumer Finance : Japan

<p>In this second of a series of articles examining the FashionTech scene in Japan, Euromonitor International looks at Japanese FashionTech companies operating in BtoC areas, particularly via sharing economy and personalisation. For the first article, please click <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/can-tech-save-the-declining-japanese-apparel-industry-fashiontech-series-1-3" target="_blank">here</a>.</p>

In this second of a series of articles examining the FashionTech scene in Japan, Euromonitor International looks at Japanese FashionTech companies operating in BtoC areas, particularly via sharing economy and personalisation. For the first article, please click here.

Can Tech Save The Declining Japanese Apparel Industry? Fashion-Tech Series (2/3)

Japan

BROTHER INDUSTRIES, LTD. manufactures and markets communications and office equipment.  The Company's main products include facsimiles, digital copy machines, label printers, and word processors.  Brother Industries also manufactures and sells sewing machines and other tools.  The Company operates its business worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Brother Industries (6448 JP)

Ricoh (7752): Activists Were Early, the Consensus Is Late

Market undervaluing Ricoh as print asset, but company showing ability to grow cash flows. Bears misunderstanding core business. Activist investors...

Michael Allen

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 02/03 Hirose, Eisai..

Of Wednesday's 100 results announcements, 78% scored positively for earnings momentum despite trailing revenues falling by 5.7% on average and a...

Campbell Gunn

High Beta and Names with a High % of Foreign Investors Underperformed This Week in Japan....

In Japan, high Beta names and names with a high % of Foreign Investors underperformed this week after doing very well the previous week. It has...

Custom Products Group

Analyst Viewpoint on Consumer Finance : Japan

The analyst viewpoint series features interviews with analysts from several of the 46 markets covered in Euromonitor’s Consumer Finance research...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Can Tech Save The Declining Japanese Apparel Industry? Fashion-Tech Series (2/3)

In this second of a series of articles examining the FashionTech scene in Japan, Euromonitor International looks at Japanese FashionTech companies...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Ricoh (7752): Activists Were Early, the Consensus Is Late

​Market undervaluing Ricoh as print asset, but company showing ability to grow cash flows. Bears misunderstanding core business. Activist investors...

Michael Allen

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​02/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​03 Hirose, Eisai..

Of Wednesday's 100 results announcements, 78% scored positively for earnings momentum despite trailing revenues falling by 5.7% on average and a...

Campbell Gunn

High Beta and Names with a High % of Foreign Investors Underperformed This Week in Japan....

In Japan, high Beta names and names with a high % of Foreign Investors underperformed this week after doing very well the previous week. It has...

Custom Products Group

Analyst Viewpoint on Consumer Finance : Japan

The analyst viewpoint series features interviews with analysts from several of the 46 markets covered in Euromonitor’s Consumer Finance research...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Can Tech Save The Declining Japanese Apparel Industry? Fashion-Tech Series (2/3)

In this second of a series of articles examining the FashionTech scene in Japan, Euromonitor International looks at Japanese FashionTech companies...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Market undervaluing Ricoh as print asset, but company showing ability to grow cash flows. Bears misunderstanding core business. Activist investors...

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 02/03 Hirose, Eisai..