Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

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Back on the 18 March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:367:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK)</a> (KLN) <a href="http://www3.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/SEHK/2019/0318/LTN20190318261.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the possible spin-off and separate listing of 63%-held Kerry Express (Thailand) (KET) on the stock exchange of Thailand. KET is principally engaged in the business of express delivery business in Thailand. 
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A strategic partnership was established with GI Global Media Public, a subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15943" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15943:1" rel="noopener">BTS Group Holdings (BTS TB)</a>, <a href="http://www3.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/SEHK/2018/0424/LTN20180424095.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">in July 2018</a>. GI Global paid THB5.9bn (HK$1.475bn) for 23% of KIT, implying a then market value of $6.4bn,  or ~HK$4bn for KLN's 63% stake.
Details of KET's December listing have now been issued - all <a href="https://market.sec.or.th/public/ipos/IPOSEQ01.aspx?TransID=305545" target="_blank" rel="noopener">relevant information</a> is in Thai. That stake in KET is now worth ~50% more, if using the mid-point of the IPO range. 
More below the fold.
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Back on the 18 March, Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) (KLN) announced the possible spin-off and separate listing of 63%-held Kerry Express (Thailand) (KET) on the stock exchange of Thailand. KET is principally engaged in the business of express delivery business in Thailand. 


A strategic partnership was established with GI Global Media Public, a subsidiary of BTS Group Holdings (BTS TB), in July 2018. GI Global paid THB5.9bn (HK$1.475bn) for 23% of KIT, implying a then market value of $6.4bn,  or ~HK$4bn for KLN's 63% stake.
Details of KET's December listing have now been issued - all relevant information is in Thai. That stake in KET is now worth ~50% more, if using the mid-point of the IPO range. 
More below the fold.





Kerry Logistics (636 HK): Kerry Express' Spin-Off

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bts-group-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15943:1" rel="noopener">BTS Group Holdings (BTS TB)</a> is back on the market to sell 1.3bn shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vgi-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12409:1" rel="noopener">VGI PCL (VGI TB)</a> at a fixed price of THB6 per share. VGI beat estimates in its latest Q2 results but the massive deal size may impede near-term performance as it accounts for 44 days of three-month ADV.We covered BTS' 2019 selldown in:<ul><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vgi-global-media-placement-high-growth-monopoly-with-good-returns-from-past-deals" target="_blank" rel="noopener">VGI Global Media Placement: High Growth Monopoly with Good Returns from Past Deals</a></li></ul>

BTS Group Holdings (BTS TB) is back on the market to sell 1.3bn shares in VGI PCL (VGI TB) at a fixed price of THB6 per share. VGI beat estimates in its latest Q2 results but the massive deal size may impede near-term performance as it accounts for 44 days of three-month ADV.We covered BTS' 2019 selldown in:VGI Global Media Placement: High Growth Monopoly with Good Returns from Past Deals

VGI Global Placement - Biggest Block Ever by BTS

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Equity Bottom-Up

We met up with two major companies recently, namely skytrain operator BTS and airline Bangkok Airways. The two firms as well as STEC are currently in a consortium to upgrade the Bt290bn UtaPao terminal to service 60m visitors/yr. This is the quick run-down:<ul>
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BTS reported annual profit of Bt8.16bn, up 184% on the back of the Baywater sales and 22% EBITDA growth. Ridership and mass transit revenue dropped 22%, severely hurting the core business (80% of revenues), and this crushed the value of BTSGIF by a whopping Bt4.9bn in realized losses.</li>
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Media revenues, mainly VGI, rose 10% as advertisers continued to move from mainstream to transit and digital media, but the higher costs drove down segmental profits by 12%. Kerry Thailand also lost Bt270m. The property business lost Bt16m even as revenues rose 6%.</li>
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Bangkok Airways reported a loss of Bt339m in Q1'20 on the back of an 18% revenue decline and 23% passenger decline. The company expects things to get better on the domestic front in June, but Europe, with its fragile economy and high unemployment, could take until next year.</li>
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Non-core businesses. BA already has a catering, ground service, and cargo business. They recently opened a training center and a joint venture at UtaPao Airport, but currently have no plans to list it yet. </li>
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We met up with two major companies recently, namely skytrain operator BTS and airline Bangkok Airways. The two firms as well as STEC are currently in a consortium to upgrade the Bt290bn UtaPao terminal to service 60m visitors/yr. This is the quick run-down:

BTS reported annual profit of Bt8.16bn, up 184% on the back of the Baywater sales and 22% EBITDA growth. Ridership and mass transit revenue dropped 22%, severely hurting the core business (80% of revenues), and this crushed the value of BTSGIF by a whopping Bt4.9bn in realized losses.

Media revenues, mainly VGI, rose 10% as advertisers continued to move from mainstream to transit and digital media, but the higher costs drove down segmental profits by 12%. Kerry Thailand also lost Bt270m. The property business lost Bt16m even as revenues rose 6%.

Bangkok Airways reported a loss of Bt339m in Q1'20 on the back of an 18% revenue decline and 23% passenger decline. The company expects things to get better on the domestic front in June, but Europe, with its fragile economy and high unemployment, could take until next year.

Non-core businesses. BA already has a catering, ground service, and cargo business. They recently opened a training center and a joint venture at UtaPao Airport, but currently have no plans to list it yet. 


BTS and Bangkok Airways, UTaPao Brother-In-Arms

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bts-group-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15943:1">BTS Group Holdings (BTS TB)</a> is expected to see another draw down to support that presents an attractive buying opportunity assuming 9.80 base support holds weakness in late March which is our cycle low zone for Asia.Daily and weekly cycles are moving into oversold territory and expected to complete the downturn near that late March cycle zone. There is still some basing work to be done near the 10.50 region in order to build steams for a fresh rally cycle from April to June.The current bounce is viewed a corrective in nature as buy volumes remain weak with a rejection due under 12.40/50 immediate resistance.

BTS Group Holdings (BTS TB) is expected to see another draw down to support that presents an attractive buying opportunity assuming 9.80 base support holds weakness in late March which is our cycle low zone for Asia.Daily and weekly cycles are moving into oversold territory and expected to complete the downturn near that late March cycle zone. There is still some basing work to be done near the 10.50 region in order to build steams for a fresh rally cycle from April to June.The current bounce is viewed a corrective in nature as buy volumes remain weak with a rejection due under 12.40/50 immediate resistance.

BTS Group Attractive Buy Zone in Late March

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

In my inaugural insight on Thai stocks, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/airports-of-thailand-aot-yet-to-fall" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36434" rel="noopener">Airports of Thailand (AOT): Yet to Fall</a> , the company is just experiencing a drop in the number of tourists from China. This insight will discuss the management's willingness to help its tenants' survival during the COVID-19 period actually hurts more than it predicted. 
The management's willingness to provide cushion for its tenants means that it has to lose a defensive part of the business (concession). BUY on weakness? Not yet, unfortunately...

In my inaugural insight on Thai stocks, Airports of Thailand (AOT): Yet to Fall , the company is just experiencing a drop in the number of tourists from China. This insight will discuss the management's willingness to help its tenants' survival during the COVID-19 period actually hurts more than it predicted. 
The management's willingness to provide cushion for its tenants means that it has to lose a defensive part of the business (concession). BUY on weakness? Not yet, unfortunately...

Airports of Thailand (AOT): Fallen Enough?

Thailand

BTS Group Holdings Public Company Limited is a Thai multi-industry conglomerate with core businesses in mass transit, media, property development, and services. It operates the BTS Skytrain and Bus Rapid Transit systems in Bangkok, offers comprehensive offline-to-online marketing solutions, and invests in various synergistic ventures, including hotels and real estate. The company was founded in Bangkok, Thailand, in 1968.

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BTS Group (BTS TB)

Kerry Logistics (636 HK): Kerry Express' Spin-Off

Expect strong retail and institutional interest in KET, as e-commerce fuels the strong growth in the logistics sector, as this is the final...

David Blennerhassett

VGI Global Placement - Biggest Block Ever by BTS

BTS is back on the market to sell its shares in BTS. This is the biggest block ever since they started selling in 2017. The deal account for 15% of...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

BTS and Bangkok Airways, UTaPao Brother-In-Arms

We met up with two major companies recently, namely skytrain operator BTS and airline Bangkok Airways. The two firms as well as STEC are currently...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

BTS Group Attractive Buy Zone in Late March

BTS Group Holdings (BTS TB) is expected to see another draw down to support that presents an attractive buying opportunity assuming 9.80 base...

Thomas Schroeder

Airports of Thailand (AOT): Fallen Enough?

In my inaugural insight on Thai stocks, Airports of Thailand (AOT): Yet to Fall , the company is just experiencing a drop in the number of tourists...

Henry Soediarko

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