Analyst

Steve

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China's beer sector is still trading up, despite the deflation concerns of the overall China consumer sector.</li>
<li>Visible ASP growth and margin improvement over the next few years make the sector an attractive investment opportunity.</li>
<li>Prefer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beer-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:399:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK)</a> as it offers the best risk-reward within the sector.  </li>
</ul>


China's beer sector is still trading up, despite the deflation concerns of the overall China consumer sector.
Visible ASP growth and margin improvement over the next few years make the sector an attractive investment opportunity.
Prefer China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) as it offers the best risk-reward within the sector.  


China Beer Sector: One of The Few Consumer Sectors That Are Still Trading Up After The Pandemic

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>We had diverging takeaways from our distributor chancel check after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, with beer being the only segment with positive momentum over 2Q.</li><li>Considering the price gap between beer and other alcoholic drinks, and also the growing preference of low alcoholic content, in our view, breweries still offer a multi-year story that looks to be sustainable in the next 4-5 years.</li><li>In the contrary, we continue to see near-term drags in baijiu, dairies and condiments that not only led to a lacklustre 2Q but also a possible slow 2H. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We had diverging takeaways from our distributor chancel check after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, with beer being the only segment with positive momentum over 2Q.Considering the price gap between beer and other alcoholic drinks, and also the growing preference of low alcoholic content, in our view, breweries still offer a multi-year story that looks to be sustainable in the next 4-5 years.In the contrary, we continue to see near-term drags in baijiu, dairies and condiments that not only led to a lacklustre 2Q but also a possible slow 2H. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Consumer Staples – Divergence continues

<ul><li>We untangle the “household excess saving” enigma.</li><li>Instead of a silver bullet, we consider it a status-quo in which consumers are confident enough to spend (or invest) beyond their pre-pandemic budgets by tapping into their savings accumulated during the pandemic, after they first normalize their spending to prepandemic level.</li><li>In other words, we believe the use of “excess saving” would predominantly kick-in upon a full-fledged consumption recovery. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We untangle the “household excess saving” enigma.Instead of a silver bullet, we consider it a status-quo in which consumers are confident enough to spend (or invest) beyond their pre-pandemic budgets by tapping into their savings accumulated during the pandemic, after they first normalize their spending to prepandemic level.In other words, we believe the use of “excess saving” would predominantly kick-in upon a full-fledged consumption recovery. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Consumer – From Reopening to Recovery

<ul><li>We expect encouraging 5.1 travel data. According to various sources and news we monitor, air passenger during the holiday is likely to surpass 9mn persons, tracking approximately 110% of the level we saw in 2019.</li><li>Splitting between domestic and overseas travellers, the former will likely grow by approximately 25%, while, for the latter, the recovery could track up to 30-40% of that in 2019.</li><li>By destination, air ticket booking to Hainan grew by 1.5x, and Hainan represented 93% of the travel destination of domestic trips.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect encouraging 5.1 travel data. According to various sources and news we monitor, air passenger during the holiday is likely to surpass 9mn persons, tracking approximately 110% of the level we saw in 2019.Splitting between domestic and overseas travellers, the former will likely grow by approximately 25%, while, for the latter, the recovery could track up to 30-40% of that in 2019.By destination, air ticket booking to Hainan grew by 1.5x, and Hainan represented 93% of the travel destination of domestic trips.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Consumer – Expecting Encouraging Data from the 5.1 Holiday This Year

<ul><li>We had positive takeaways on F&amp;B demand over the New Year holiday break from our chancel check with distributors.</li><li>In view of the strong foot traffic and hence gifting demand, Baijiu and Beer exceeded expectation, followed by soft drinks and RTD.</li><li>Dairies (including IMF) had a good recovery despite a relatively high inventory level. Both packaged snacks and instant noodle had good momentum.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We had positive takeaways on F&amp;B demand over the New Year holiday break from our chancel check with distributors.In view of the strong foot traffic and hence gifting demand, Baijiu and Beer exceeded expectation, followed by soft drinks and RTD.Dairies (including IMF) had a good recovery despite a relatively high inventory level. Both packaged snacks and instant noodle had good momentum.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Consumer – Positive Takeaway from F&B Distributors

Hong Kong

Budweiser Brewing Company APAC is a leading beverage company that produces, imports, markets, distributes, and sells beer and other non-beer beverages across Asia-Pacific. It offers a portfolio of over 50 beer brands, including Budweiser, Stella Artois, Corona, Harbin, Hoegaarden, and Cass. The company is headquartered in Hong Kong and was founded in 1876.

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Budweiser Brewing Company APAC (1876 HK)

China Beer Sector: One of The Few Consumer Sectors That Are Still Trading Up After The Pandemic

China's beer sector is still trading up, despite the deflation concerns of the overall China consumer sector. One of the best consumer sectors to...

Steve

China Consumer Staples – Divergence continues

We had diverging takeaways from our distributor chancel check after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, with beer being the only segment with...

CMB International

China Consumer – From Reopening to Recovery

In other words, we believe the use of “excess saving” would predominantly kick-in upon a full-fledged consumption recovery.

CMB International

China Consumer – Expecting Encouraging Data from the 5.1 Holiday This Year

According to various sources and news we monitor, air passenger during the holiday is likely to surpass 9mn persons, tracking approximately 110% of...

CMB International

China Consumer – Positive Takeaway from F&B Distributors

In view of the strong foot traffic and hence gifting demand, Baijiu and Beer exceeded expectation, followed by soft drinks and RTD

CMB International

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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