ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak-com-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a> 3Q2023 results confirmed that it is on track to achieving EBITDA breakeven in 4Q2023, with strong revenue growth and a significant improvement in its contribution margin.</li>
<li>The was a slight slowdown in marketplace revenue QoQ due to a high Lebaran base, mainly due to slower gaming. 4Q2023 should see a strong recovery and higher take rates. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak-com-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak</a> looks to be pressing all the right buttons but more granularity on what is driving higher take rates would be well-received . Valuations look attractive relative to peers.</li>
</ul>



Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) 3Q2023 results confirmed that it is on track to achieving EBITDA breakeven in 4Q2023, with strong revenue growth and a significant improvement in its contribution margin.
The was a slight slowdown in marketplace revenue QoQ due to a high Lebaran base, mainly due to slower gaming. 4Q2023 should see a strong recovery and higher take rates. 

Bukalapak looks to be pressing all the right buttons but more granularity on what is driving higher take rates would be well-received . Valuations look attractive relative to peers.


Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) - Taking the Track Towards Profitability

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia</a> may see a stabilisation of the declines in GTV that it has experienced over the last 2Qs, with some of the platform's new initiatives gaining traction.</li>
<li>The closure of TikTok Shop should be positive at the margin for Tokopedia but it has also rolled back its platform fee, which has had a positive impact on growth.</li>
<li>New initiatives include GoRide Transit, GoCorp, GoTo PLUS, and the GoPay app, with the latter seeing strong take-up. 3Q2023 results should reveal more details on initiatives. All-time low seems unjustified.</li>
</ul>



GoTo Gojek Tokopedia may see a stabilisation of the declines in GTV that it has experienced over the last 2Qs, with some of the platform's new initiatives gaining traction.
The closure of TikTok Shop should be positive at the margin for Tokopedia but it has also rolled back its platform fee, which has had a positive impact on growth.
New initiatives include GoRide Transit, GoCorp, GoTo PLUS, and the GoPay app, with the latter seeing strong take-up. 3Q2023 results should reveal more details on initiatives. All-time low seems unjustified.


GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - Building Positive Resonance with New Initiatives

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<li>The news that the Indonesian Government will target social commerce in Indonesia, as well as placing additional scrutiny on imported products sold through digital channels will impact TikTok hard.</li>
<li>TikTok Shop will not be allowed to operate in Indonesia in its present guise given the requirement to split social media and e-commerce, which will benefit peers Shopee and Tokopedia.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd</a> through Shopee will be the biggest beneficiary given it will require less promotional spending in Indonesia and it has also re-entered the Indian market with <em>FreeFire. </em>
</li>
</ul>


The news that the Indonesian Government will target social commerce in Indonesia, as well as placing additional scrutiny on imported products sold through digital channels will impact TikTok hard.
TikTok Shop will not be allowed to operate in Indonesia in its present guise given the requirement to split social media and e-commerce, which will benefit peers Shopee and Tokopedia.

Sea Ltd through Shopee will be the biggest beneficiary given it will require less promotional spending in Indonesia and it has also re-entered the Indian market with FreeFire. 



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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/global-digital-niaga-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34881:1" rel="noopener">Global Digital Niaga (BliBli) </a>continues to stand out from peers given a differentiated omnichannel model plus a greater portion of 1P but 3P sales are growing driven by Tiket.com.</li>
<li>TPV growth surpassed revenue growth in 1H2023 driven by Tiket.com but take rates and gross margins improved, as the company cut back on promotional spending and improved cost efficiencies. </li>
<li>BliBli booked organic growth with more users and a significant pick-up in the average order value, partially driven by Tiket.com. </li>
</ul>



Global Digital Niaga (BliBli) continues to stand out from peers given a differentiated omnichannel model plus a greater portion of 1P but 3P sales are growing driven by Tiket.com.
TPV growth surpassed revenue growth in 1H2023 driven by Tiket.com but take rates and gross margins improved, as the company cut back on promotional spending and improved cost efficiencies. 
BliBli booked organic growth with more users and a significant pick-up in the average order value, partially driven by Tiket.com. 


Global Digital Niaga (BELI IJ) - BliBli Ploughing a More Profitable Furrow

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aquila-acquisition-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35435:1" rel="noopener">Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK)</a> agreed to a De-SPAC transaction with ZG Group (formerly Zhaogang.com), the world’s largest digital platform for third-party steel transactions.</li>
<li>ZG has a questionable business model, struggling to generate profits or underlying FCF. This dynamic suggests that ZG has not established a sustainable competitive advantage. </li>
<li>The negotiated value of ZG in the De-SPAC transaction is HK$10,004 million (US$1,277 million). Our valuation analysis suggests that this negotiated value is unrealistic.</li>
</ul>



Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK) agreed to a De-SPAC transaction with ZG Group (formerly Zhaogang.com), the world’s largest digital platform for third-party steel transactions.
ZG has a questionable business model, struggling to generate profits or underlying FCF. This dynamic suggests that ZG has not established a sustainable competitive advantage. 
The negotiated value of ZG in the De-SPAC transaction is HK$10,004 million (US$1,277 million). Our valuation analysis suggests that this negotiated value is unrealistic.


Aquila Acquisition Corp (7836 HK): ZG Group’s Punchy Valuation

Indonesia

Bukalapak is an Indonesian technology company that operates an all-commerce platform, focusing on empowering micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and individual sellers. It has transformed from primarily an online marketplace for physical products to concentrating on four main business lines: Mitra Bukalapak (O2O MSME empowerment program), gaming, investment, and retail. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)