HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The IPO pricing of BUSY MING is attractive. P/E of 20-30x is an acceptable valuation range in the short term. The IPO pricing leaves certain upside potential for stock price.</li>
<li>The profit situation of the franchisees is not optimistic. The rate of store closures is increasing. This makes us start to worry about the sustainability of BUSY MING's franchise model.</li>
<li>The current high growth may not be sustainable.BUSY MING clearly hopes to successfully IPO during the current peak period of performance, but investors may face performance decline in the future.</li>
</ul>


The IPO pricing of BUSY MING is attractive. P/E of 20-30x is an acceptable valuation range in the short term. The IPO pricing leaves certain upside potential for stock price.
The profit situation of the franchisees is not optimistic. The rate of store closures is increasing. This makes us start to worry about the sustainability of BUSY MING's franchise model.
The current high growth may not be sustainable.BUSY MING clearly hopes to successfully IPO during the current peak period of performance, but investors may face performance decline in the future.


Busy Ming Group (1768 HK) IPO - Thoughts on Valuation and the Outlook

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/busy-ming-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45154:1" rel="noopener">Busy Ming Group (1768 HK)</a> is looking to raise up to HK$4.22bn (US$541m) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$50.7bn (US$6.5bn).</li>
<li>The large allocation to cornerstone investors reduces free-float market cap and could delay inclusion in global indices. Inclusion in one global index could take place in September at the earliest.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/busy-ming-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45154:1" rel="noopener">Busy Ming Group (1768 HK)</a> should be added to the HSCI in June and subsequently added to Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
</ul>



Busy Ming Group (1768 HK) is looking to raise up to HK$4.22bn (US$541m) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$50.7bn (US$6.5bn).
The large allocation to cornerstone investors reduces free-float market cap and could delay inclusion in global indices. Inclusion in one global index could take place in September at the earliest.

Busy Ming Group (1768 HK) should be added to the HSCI in June and subsequently added to Southbound Stock Connect.


Busy Ming (1768 HK): Not so Busy on the Index Inclusions

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Busy Ming is implied market cap of HKD84.6 billion (USD10.8 billion) which is 66% higher than the high end of the IPO valuation range. </li>
<li>We estimate Busy Ming to generate revenue of RMB67.7 billion (up 72.2% YoY) in 2025, RMB84.9 billion (up 25.3% YoY) in 2026, and RMB99.9 billion (up 17.7% YoY) in 2027.</li>
<li>Given the strong upside, we have a positive view of this IPO. Our base case valuation is based on P/E of 14.9x our estimated net profit of RMB5.1 billion (2027E).</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Busy Ming is implied market cap of HKD84.6 billion (USD10.8 billion) which is 66% higher than the high end of the IPO valuation range. 
We estimate Busy Ming to generate revenue of RMB67.7 billion (up 72.2% YoY) in 2025, RMB84.9 billion (up 25.3% YoY) in 2026, and RMB99.9 billion (up 17.7% YoY) in 2027.
Given the strong upside, we have a positive view of this IPO. Our base case valuation is based on P/E of 14.9x our estimated net profit of RMB5.1 billion (2027E).


Busy Ming Hong Kong IPO Valuation Analysis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/busy-ming-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45154:1" rel="noopener">Busy Ming Group (1768 HK)</a> goes public on 28 January on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange seeking to raise more than $400m at a valuation of $6.5bn</li>
<li>IPO free float is below 5% due to locked cornerstone investors such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/temasek-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28816:1" rel="noopener">Temasek (TMSK SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackrock-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6249:1" rel="noopener">BlackRock (BLK US)</a>.</li>
<li>Earliest inclusion in Global indices is expected in March 2027 following the lock-up expiry of cornerstone and other shareholders.</li>
</ul>



Busy Ming Group (1768 HK) goes public on 28 January on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange seeking to raise more than $400m at a valuation of $6.5bn
IPO free float is below 5% due to locked cornerstone investors such as Tencent (700 HK), Temasek (TMSK SP) and BlackRock (BLK US).
Earliest inclusion in Global indices is expected in March 2027 following the lock-up expiry of cornerstone and other shareholders.


Busy Ming (1768 HK): Low IPO Float Delays Global Index Inclusion

<ul>
<li>Busy Ming Group (1768 HK) is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong next week. The IPO price range is between HK$229.60 and HK$236.60.</li>
<li>At the top of the range, it would bring in about HK$3.3 billion (US$420 million) and value the company at about HK$50.7 billion (US$6.5 billion).</li>
<li>The company experienced explosive growth in the past four years, driven mainly by rapid store expansion and the Super Ming acquisition.</li>
</ul>


Busy Ming Group (1768 HK) is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong next week. The IPO price range is between HK$229.60 and HK$236.60.
At the top of the range, it would bring in about HK$3.3 billion (US$420 million) and value the company at about HK$50.7 billion (US$6.5 billion).
The company experienced explosive growth in the past four years, driven mainly by rapid store expansion and the Super Ming acquisition.


China

Busy Ming is a Chinese snack and beverage retailer that operates a vast network of stores across China. The company offers a wide range of snacks and beverages, including bakery, confectionery, biscuits, nuts, puffed snacks, instant meals, chocolates, and preserves. It operates under the "Busy for You" and "Super Ming" brands through self-operated and franchised stores, focusing on a value retail model. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Changsha, China.

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Busy Ming (1768 HK)

Busy Ming Group (1768 HK) IPO - Thoughts on Valuation and the Outlook

BUSY MING's attractive IPO pricing leaves upside potential, but concerns arise over franchisee profits and sustainability of growth model....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Busy Ming (1768 HK): Not so Busy on the Index Inclusions

Busy Ming is looking to raise up to US$541m in its IPO, valuing the company at US$6.5bn. A large cornerstone allocation reduces float and global...

Brian Freitas

Busy Ming Hong Kong IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Busy Ming is implied market cap of HKD84.6 billion (USD10.8 billion) which is 66% higher than the high end of the IPO...

Douglas Kim

Busy Ming (1768 HK): Low IPO Float Delays Global Index Inclusion

Busy Ming IPO on 28 Jan on SEHK at a $6.5bn valuation, with locked cornerstone investors such as Tencent and BlackRock keeping free float below 5%...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Busy Ming Hong Kong IPO Preview

Busy Ming Group (1768 HK) is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong next week. The IPO price range is between HK$229.60 and HK$236.60.

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Busy Ming Group (1768 HK) IPO - Thoughts on Valuation and the Outlook

​BUSY MING's attractive IPO pricing leaves upside potential, but concerns arise over franchisee profits and sustainability of growth model....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Busy Ming (1768 HK): Not so Busy on the Index Inclusions

Busy Ming is looking to raise up to US$541m in its IPO, valuing the company at US$6.5bn. A large cornerstone allocation reduces float and global...

Brian Freitas

Busy Ming Hong Kong IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Busy Ming is implied market cap of HKD84.6 billion (USD10.8 billion) which is 66% higher than the high end of the IPO...

Douglas Kim

Busy Ming (1768 HK): Low IPO Float Delays Global Index Inclusion

Busy Ming IPO on 28 Jan on SEHK at a $6.5bn valuation, with locked cornerstone investors such as Tencent and BlackRock keeping free float below 5%...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Busy Ming Hong Kong IPO Preview

Busy Ming Group (1768 HK) is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong next week. The IPO price range is between HK$229.60 and HK$236.60.

Douglas Kim

BUSY MING's attractive IPO pricing leaves upside potential, but concerns arise over franchisee profits and sustainability of growth model....