Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> has been correcting for four days from 111.4 (last WEEKLY Close) to 107.0 on Wednesday. Our model is flagging a potential BUY opportunity at a discounted price.</li>
<li>We have maintained a constructive view on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/byd-1211-hk-tactical-outlook-is-this-a-good-time-to-go-long-possibly-yes" target="_blank" rel="noopener">since late December 2025</a>, seeing a potential bottoming process that we tracked and reaffirmed in multiple insights since then.</li>
<li>This insight utilizes our proprietary quantitative model to quantify the extent of the current price extension, specifically calculated relative to the current trend, matched against similar historical  analogues.</li>
</ul>



BYD (1211 HK) has been correcting for four days from 111.4 (last WEEKLY Close) to 107.0 on Wednesday. Our model is flagging a potential BUY opportunity at a discounted price.
We have maintained a constructive view on BYD (1211 HK)since late December 2025, seeing a potential bottoming process that we tracked and reaffirmed in multiple insights since then.
This insight utilizes our proprietary quantitative model to quantify the extent of the current price extension, specifically calculated relative to the current trend, matched against similar historical  analogues.


BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Opportunity to Enter a Potential Multi-Week Rally

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A severe fire broke out in BYD’s Pingshan factory on April 14.</li>
<li>This is the first time that BYD admitts a factory fire.</li>
<li>No limit on spreading the fire news reflects the authorities’ attitude to BYD.</li>
</ul>


A severe fire broke out in BYD’s Pingshan factory on April 14.
This is the first time that BYD admitts a factory fire.
No limit on spreading the fire news reflects the authorities’ attitude to BYD.


BYD (1211 HK): The Fire Disaster – On Site and on Social Media

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>On 7 October, Hang Seng announced the conclusions of the market consultation to increase the number of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> constituents from 30 to 50.</li>
<li>While most of the proposals will be implemented as proposed, a liquidity requirement has been tightened, and revenue thresholds have been imposed for companies qualifying through the Sales Growth Stream.</li>
<li>The changes will be implemented in a single step at the December rebalance and that creates a lot of flow for all the index members, current and new.</li>
</ul>


On 7 October, Hang Seng announced the conclusions of the market consultation to increase the number of Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) constituents from 30 to 50.
While most of the proposals will be implemented as proposed, a liquidity requirement has been tightened, and revenue thresholds have been imposed for companies qualifying through the Sales Growth Stream.
The changes will be implemented in a single step at the December rebalance and that creates a lot of flow for all the index members, current and new.


HSTECH Index: Market Consultation Conclusions, Updated Potential Adds & The Borderline Names

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Context: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26048:1" rel="noopener">BYD (002594 CH)</a> reports Q4 2025 results on 27 March 2026 after market close.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Options markets imply a larger move than the historical average. The stock has shown asymmetric reactions, with fewer but stronger upside moves.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Gain insight into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> earnings-day price history, volatility dynamics, and dividend outlook to better position for the upcoming announcement.</li>
</ul>



Context: BYD (1211 HK) / BYD (002594 CH) reports Q4 2025 results on 27 March 2026 after market close.

Highlights: Options markets imply a larger move than the historical average. The stock has shown asymmetric reactions, with fewer but stronger upside moves.

Why Read: Gain insight into BYD (1211 HK) earnings-day price history, volatility dynamics, and dividend outlook to better position for the upcoming announcement.


BYD (1211 HK / 002594 CH) Earnings 27 March: Expected Move, Volatility Dynamics, Dividend Outlook

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>The reintroduction of the EV sales tax in China dampened growth prospects so far, as reflected by the poor Jan and Feb 2026 sales numbers. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> created a new revenue stream in Australia besides selling EV units with a gross margin of almost 99%, although the impact on the company is still small. </li>
<li>Valuation is much more compelling now, but investors are cautioned to hold to see the impact on sales tax. The high oil price could spike interest in EVs again. </li>
</ul>


The reintroduction of the EV sales tax in China dampened growth prospects so far, as reflected by the poor Jan and Feb 2026 sales numbers. 

BYD (1211 HK) created a new revenue stream in Australia besides selling EV units with a gross margin of almost 99%, although the impact on the company is still small. 
Valuation is much more compelling now, but investors are cautioned to hold to see the impact on sales tax. The high oil price could spike interest in EVs again. 


China

BYD Company Limited manufactures automotive products. The Company produces ordinary passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and other products. BYD also operates battery making, rail transportation construction, and other businesses.

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BYD (002594 CH)

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Opportunity to Enter a Potential Multi-Week Rally

BYD (1211 HK) dipped 5% in 4 days, our model sees a buy-the-dip moment, a potential BUY opportunity at discounted price to enter a potential rally...

Nico Rosti

HSTECH Index: Market Consultation Conclusions, Updated Potential Adds & The Borderline Names

Introduction/tightening of revenue/liquidity criteria changes the list of potential adds. Estimated one-way turnover at the Dec rebalance is 14.2%...

Brian Freitas

BYD (1211 HK / 002594 CH) Earnings 27 March: Expected Move, Volatility Dynamics, Dividend Outlook

BYD (1211 HK, 002594 CH) set to report Q4 2025 results with options markets predicting larger moves than historical average, offering insights...

Gaudenz Schneider

BYD(1211): Neutral

China's EV sales tax reintroduction impacts growth, but BYD finds a new revenue stream in Australia with a high gross margin. Investors cautioned...

Henry Soediarko

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52-week Range

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BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Opportunity to Enter a Potential Multi-Week Rally

​BYD (1211 HK) dipped 5% in 4 days, our model sees a buy-the-dip moment, a potential BUY opportunity at discounted price to enter a potential rally...

Nico Rosti

BYD (1211 HK): The Fire Disaster – On Site and on Social Media

A severe fire broke out in BYD’s Pingshan factory on April 14. This is the first time that BYD admitted a factory fire. No limit on spreading the...

Ming Lu

HSTECH Index: Market Consultation Conclusions, Updated Potential Adds & The Borderline Names

Introduction/tightening of revenue/liquidity criteria changes the list of potential adds. Estimated one-way turnover at the Dec rebalance is 14.2%...

Brian Freitas

BYD (1211 HK / 002594 CH) Earnings 27 March: Expected Move, Volatility Dynamics, Dividend Outlook

​BYD (1211 HK, 002594 CH) set to report Q4 2025 results with options markets predicting larger moves than historical average, offering insights...

Gaudenz Schneider

BYD(1211): Neutral

​China's EV sales tax reintroduction impacts growth, but BYD finds a new revenue stream in Australia with a high gross margin. Investors cautioned...

Henry Soediarko

BYD (1211 HK) dipped 5% in 4 days, our model sees a buy-the-dip moment, a potential BUY opportunity at discounted price to enter a potential rally...

BYD (1211 HK, 002594 CH) set to report Q4 2025 results with options markets predicting larger moves than historical average, offering insights...

China's EV sales tax reintroduction impacts growth, but BYD finds a new revenue stream in Australia with a high gross margin. Investors cautioned...