Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The HSTECH index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.</li>
<li>We continue to expect no index changes for March 2026. However, we estimate there to be around US$862mn in one-way flows triggered by capping.</li>
<li>The official index changes and indicative weights for the March 2026 index rebal event will be announced publicly after the close on Friday 13th February 2026.</li>
</ul>


The HSTECH index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
We continue to expect no index changes for March 2026. However, we estimate there to be around US$862mn in one-way flows triggered by capping.
The official index changes and indicative weights for the March 2026 index rebal event will be announced publicly after the close on Friday 13th February 2026.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Mar26: No Changes Likely; US$860mn One-Way; Announcement Next Week

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>This insight updates our previous: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/byd-1211-hk-tactical-outlook-is-this-a-good-time-to-go-long-possibly-yes" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Is This a Good Time To Go LONG? Possibly Yes.</a> (Published on Dec 29, boomeranged on Jan 2).</li>
<li>As previously signaled, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> may be in the process of bottoming and possibly restart rallying. This tactical view is short term, <strong>our target is 106.4 (Q3 target).</strong>
</li>
<li>The stock is getting overbought, it does not mean the rally cannot continue past 106.4, but for now we will keep a conservative view, and we'll come back with updates.</li>
</ul>


This insight updates our previous: BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Is This a Good Time To Go LONG? Possibly Yes. (Published on Dec 29, boomeranged on Jan 2).
As previously signaled, BYD (1211 HK) may be in the process of bottoming and possibly restart rallying. This tactical view is short term, our target is 106.4 (Q3 target).

The stock is getting overbought, it does not mean the rally cannot continue past 106.4, but for now we will keep a conservative view, and we'll come back with updates.


BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Taking Off?

<ul>
<li>The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations of index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSTECH index rebal event in March 2026.</li>
<li>We expect no index changes but we estimate there to be roughly US$840mn in one-way flows in March 2026.</li>
</ul>


The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations of index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSTECH index rebal event in March 2026.
We expect no index changes but we estimate there to be roughly US$840mn in one-way flows in March 2026.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Mar26: Final Ranks; US$840mn One-Way

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a> ended on 31 December, the changes will be announced on 13 February and implemented on 6 March.</li>
<li>No constituent changes will result in a one-way turnover of 1.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$12bn (U$1.5bn).</li>
<li>There is a low probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chery-automobile-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39918:1" rel="noopener">Chery Automobile (9973 HK)</a> being considered for index inclusion.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance of the Hang Seng TECH Index ended on 31 December, the changes will be announced on 13 February and implemented on 6 March.
No constituent changes will result in a one-way turnover of 1.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$12bn (U$1.5bn).
There is a low probability of Geely Auto (175 HK) and Chery Automobile (9973 HK) being considered for index inclusion.


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Changes If Index Universe Is Expanded

<ul>
<li>This insight is an update of the<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/byd-1211-hk-tactical-outlook-time-to-go-long-not-yet" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> insight published on December 15th</a>. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> stock has been downtrending for a while, and LONG positioning starts to become attractive. </li>
<li>Right now our model is still saying that the short-term upside is limited, same as it did on December 15th but the model was recalculated and shows new profit targets.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> started this week very strongly, closing up +3.74% on Monday. The stock may be bottoming, so we are favorable to buying here, with some caveats.</li>
</ul>


This insight is an update of the insight published on December 15th. The BYD (1211 HK) stock has been downtrending for a while, and LONG positioning starts to become attractive. 
Right now our model is still saying that the short-term upside is limited, same as it did on December 15th but the model was recalculated and shows new profit targets.

BYD (1211 HK) started this week very strongly, closing up +3.74% on Monday. The stock may be bottoming, so we are favorable to buying here, with some caveats.


BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Is This a Good Time To Go LONG? Possibly Yes.

China

BYD Company Limited manufactures automotive products. The Company produces ordinary passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and other products. BYD also operates battery making, rail transportation construction, and other businesses.

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BYD (002594 CH)

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Mar26: No Changes Likely; US$860mn One-Way; Announcement Next Week

Geely Auto (175 HK) and Chery Automobile (9973 HK) are interesting cases. Deciding their suitability for HSTECH is a highly-subjective call and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Taking Off?

As indicated in previous insight at the end of December, BYD (1211 HK) seems to be bottoming and restarting its rally. Our short-term target is...

Nico Rosti

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Mar26: Final Ranks; US$840mn One-Way

Based on our latest estimates, we see one-way flow of US$840mn which translates to a turnover of 1.8%. Currently, we do not expect any index changes.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Changes If Index Universe Is Expanded

No constituent changes expected but capping leads to big flows. Low probability of 2 stocks being added after meeting the Autonomous criterion and...

Brian Freitas

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Is This a Good Time To Go LONG? Possibly Yes.

BYD closed the week at 98.75, just above our model's Q2 profit target. It's not too late to enter the trade, read the insight and find out why we...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Mar26: No Changes Likely; US$860mn One-Way; Announcement Next Week

Geely Auto (175 HK) and Chery Automobile (9973 HK) are interesting cases. Deciding their suitability for HSTECH is a highly-subjective call and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Taking Off?

As indicated in previous insight at the end of December, ​BYD (1211 HK) seems to be bottoming and restarting its rally. Our short-term target is...

Nico Rosti

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Mar26: Final Ranks; US$840mn One-Way

Based on our latest estimates, we see one-way flow of US$840mn which translates to a turnover of 1.8%. Currently, we do not expect any index changes.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Changes If Index Universe Is Expanded

No constituent changes expected but capping leads to big flows. Low probability of 2 stocks being added after meeting the Autonomous criterion and...

Brian Freitas

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Is This a Good Time To Go LONG? Possibly Yes.

BYD closed the week at 98.75, just above our model's Q2 profit target. It's not too late to enter the trade, read the insight and find out why we...

Nico Rosti

As indicated in previous insight at the end of December, BYD (1211 HK) seems to be bottoming and restarting its rally. Our short-term target is...