External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume, based on insurance data, rose 9% YoY to 1.86mn units in Sep 2022, 3% lower than our prior forecast.</li><li>Wholesale volume surged 33% YoY to 2.33mn units, 8% higher than our prior projection due to more inventories pushed to dealers than expected.</li><li>Almost 260,000 units of inventories were added into dealers in Sep 2022, the most in any Sep in history. </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume, based on insurance data, rose 9% YoY to 1.86mn units in Sep 2022, 3% lower than our prior forecast.Wholesale volume surged 33% YoY to 2.33mn units, 8% higher than our prior projection due to more inventories pushed to dealers than expected.Almost 260,000 units of inventories were added into dealers in Sep 2022, the most in any Sep in history. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – 2H22E likely beat; FY23E consensus overstated

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Golden week data missed market’s already low expectation for all three major categories - property sales, domestic tourism spending and auto sales.</li><li>4Q is unlikely to be a big surprise as property and its supply chain (20-30% of GDP) will still be the major drag that could neutralize the still resilient auto and gradually recovering consumption.</li><li>Together with more market volatility from pandemic and CPC meeting, we recommend investors to avoid one-sided long or short, but focus on pair trade opportunities to play the difference of BtoC over BtoB as BtoB is more vulnerable in terms of bad debts and pricing power than BtoC amid weak macro.</li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Golden week data missed market’s already low expectation for all three major categories - property sales, domestic tourism spending and auto sales.4Q is unlikely to be a big surprise as property and its supply chain (20-30% of GDP) will still be the major drag that could neutralize the still resilient auto and gradually recovering consumption.Together with more market volatility from pandemic and CPC meeting, we recommend investors to avoid one-sided long or short, but focus on pair trade opportunities to play the difference of BtoC over BtoB as BtoB is more vulnerable in terms of bad debts and pricing power than BtoC amid weak macro.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cross sector report – Post-Golden Week: More positive on BToC recovery potential; Cautious on BToB

<ul><li>NIO, Xpeng miss, Li L9 exceeded 10,000 units. Both NIO and Xpeng just hit the lower bound of their 3Q22 sales guidance.</li><li>NIO’s Sep sales volume was about 1,000 units lower than our prior estimates due to sequentially declining sales volume for the ET7.</li><li>We suspect NIO’s supply chain issue is still lingering given ET7’s sufficient order backlog.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

NIO, Xpeng miss, Li L9 exceeded 10,000 units. Both NIO and Xpeng just hit the lower bound of their 3Q22 sales guidance.NIO’s Sep sales volume was about 1,000 units lower than our prior estimates due to sequentially declining sales volume for the ET7.We suspect NIO’s supply chain issue is still lingering given ET7’s sufficient order backlog.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Set for NEV new-high sales in Sep and 4Q22

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) wholesale volume surged 37% YoY to 2.13mn units in Aug 2022, 1% higher than our prior projection.</li><li>Similar to Jul 2022, that figure made the best Aug wholesale volume in history and 13% higher than the second-best Aug sales occurred in 2017.</li><li>Retail sales volume, based on insurance data, rose 18% YoY to 1.89mn units, 2% lower than our prior forecast.</li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) wholesale volume surged 37% YoY to 2.13mn units in Aug 2022, 1% higher than our prior projection.Similar to Jul 2022, that figure made the best Aug wholesale volume in history and 13% higher than the second-best Aug sales occurred in 2017.Retail sales volume, based on insurance data, rose 18% YoY to 1.89mn units, 2% lower than our prior forecast.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – What we worried earlier is partially priced in now

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

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Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to fall, with the resistance at 1,685/1,693 points and the support at 1,650/1,645 points (10-day EMA).</li><li>Negative momentum will be generated by US inflation in August coming it at +8.3% YoY, higher than the market's expectation at +8.10% YoY – fed funds futures now suggest a 33% probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 1.00% (with a 67% probability of a 0.75% increase), which pulled US markets down sharply yesterday.</li><li>According to Thaisettakij News, after reviewing the related laws, the board of the Council of State is expected to rule that the NBTC does not hold the authority to regulate the merger deal between TRUE and DTAC.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to fall, with the resistance at 1,685/1,693 points and the support at 1,650/1,645 points (10-day EMA).Negative momentum will be generated by US inflation in August coming it at +8.3% YoY, higher than the market's expectation at +8.10% YoY – fed funds futures now suggest a 33% probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 1.00% (with a 67% probability of a 0.75% increase), which pulled US markets down sharply yesterday.According to Thaisettakij News, after reviewing the related laws, the board of the Council of State is expected to rule that the NBTC does not hold the authority to regulate the merger deal between TRUE and DTAC.

China

BYD Company Limited manufactures automotive products. The Company produces ordinary passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and other products. BYD also operates battery making, rail transportation construction, and other businesses.

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BYD (002594 CH)

China Auto Sector – 2H22E likely beat; FY23E consensus overstated

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume, based on insurance data, rose 9% YoY to 1.86mn units in Sep 2022, 3% lower than our prior...

CMB International

Cross sector report – Post-Golden Week: More positive on BToC recovery potential; Cautious on BToB

Golden week data missed market’s already low expectation for all three major categories - property sales, domestic tourism spending and auto sales.

CMB International

China Auto Sector – Set for NEV new-high sales in Sep and 4Q22

NIO’s Sep sales volume was about 1,000 units lower than our prior estimates due to sequentially declining sales volume for the ET7.

CMB International

China Auto Sector – What we worried earlier is partially priced in now

Similar to Jul 2022, that figure made the best Aug wholesale volume in history and 13% higher than the second-best Aug sales occurred in 2017.

CMB International

Market Outlook

The SET Index is expected to fall, with the resistance at 1,685/1,693 points and the support at 1,650/1,645 points (10-day EMA). Negative momentum...

Krungthai XSpring

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