External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We summarize the Jan 2025 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.</li><li>Note that Jan discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Dec 2024 retail sales volume for each model, as Jan 2025 retail sales volume data have not been released yet.</li><li>The industrywide average discounts widened by 0.3ppts MoM in Jan 2025, based on our calculations, mainly driven by Chinese automakers, including BYD, Leapmotor and GAC Aion, and German brands, such as BMW and Audi. BYD plans to cover the majority of its models with autonomous driving (AD) functions this year, which may have resulted in higher discounts for its existing models. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Jan 2025 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.Note that Jan discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Dec 2024 retail sales volume for each model, as Jan 2025 retail sales volume data have not been released yet.The industrywide average discounts widened by 0.3ppts MoM in Jan 2025, based on our calculations, mainly driven by Chinese automakers, including BYD, Leapmotor and GAC Aion, and German brands, such as BMW and Audi. BYD plans to cover the majority of its models with autonomous driving (AD) functions this year, which may have resulted in higher discounts for its existing models. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - Leap, BYD, Aion Led Discount Increase in Jan

<ul><li>We are of the view that 4Q24 earnings of Geely, BYD and Li Auto could continue to be more resilient than most peers.</li><li>Net losses of Xpeng could narrow QoQ in 4Q24, while that of NIO may continue to widen QoQ, in our view.</li><li>Leapmotor turned profitable for the first time on a quarterly basis in 4Q24, stronger than most investors’ expectation. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We are of the view that 4Q24 earnings of Geely, BYD and Li Auto could continue to be more resilient than most peers.Net losses of Xpeng could narrow QoQ in 4Q24, while that of NIO may continue to widen QoQ, in our view.Leapmotor turned profitable for the first time on a quarterly basis in 4Q24, stronger than most investors’ expectation. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - 4Q24 Earnings Preview: Growing Divergence

<ul><li>We summarize the Dec 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.</li><li>Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15-18 stores for each brand) in 15 cities in China.</li><li>The following data reflect same-store metrics, and the metrics on a company level could be better than these figures, as most players are still expanding their sales network.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Dec 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15-18 stores for each brand) in 15 cities in China.The following data reflect same-store metrics, and the metrics on a company level could be better than these figures, as most players are still expanding their sales network.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - Jan 2025 NEV Sales to Fall MoM Despite Solid Dec Leading Indicators

<ul><li>Despite a pre-buying effect in 2024, we expect China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) sales volume to be still resilient in 2025.</li><li>We also project new-energy vehicle (NEV) market share to reach 57.8% in 2025E on a retail basis, which could make NEVs become mainstream in most price segments.</li><li>While some key themes including competition and the rising importance of new models are likely to continue in 2025, we also need to be prepared for new trends.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Despite a pre-buying effect in 2024, we expect China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) sales volume to be still resilient in 2025.We also project new-energy vehicle (NEV) market share to reach 57.8% in 2025E on a retail basis, which could make NEVs become mainstream in most price segments.While some key themes including competition and the rising importance of new models are likely to continue in 2025, we also need to be prepared for new trends.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - 2025 Outlook: Likely a replica of 2024, but more

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support at 1,425/1,411 points (50-week EMA) and the resistance at 1,442/1,445 points (50-day and 10-day EMA).</li><li>In the short term, a technical sell signal was triggered yesterday (falling below 1,432 points for the first time), reflecting a downward trend toward the key support levels at 1,411/1,405 points, respectively.</li><li>We maintain the recommendation to sell on rallies until a new technical buy signal emerges.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support at 1,425/1,411 points (50-week EMA) and the resistance at 1,442/1,445 points (50-day and 10-day EMA).In the short term, a technical sell signal was triggered yesterday (falling below 1,432 points for the first time), reflecting a downward trend toward the key support levels at 1,411/1,405 points, respectively.We maintain the recommendation to sell on rallies until a new technical buy signal emerges.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. November 28, 2024

China

BYD Company Limited manufactures automotive products. The Company produces ordinary passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and other products. BYD also operates battery making, rail transportation construction, and other businesses.

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BYD (002594 CH)

Auto - Leap, BYD, Aion Led Discount Increase in Jan

Note that Jan discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Dec 2024 retail sales volume for each model, as Jan 2025...

CMB International

Auto - 4Q24 Earnings Preview: Growing Divergence

We are of the view that 4Q24 earnings of Geely, BYD and Li Auto could continue to be more resilient than most peers. Net losses of Xpeng could...

CMB International

Auto - Jan 2025 NEV Sales to Fall MoM Despite Solid Dec Leading Indicators

We summarize the Dec 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li...

CMB International

Auto - 2025 Outlook: Likely a replica of 2024, but more

While some key themes including competition and the rising importance of new models are likely to continue in 2025, we also need to be prepared for...

CMB International

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. November 28, 2024

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support at 1,425/1,411 points (50-week EMA) and the resistance...

Krungthai XSpring

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