HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After a tragic 61.4pp underperformance against the HSI in 2025, the market is almost unanimously bearish on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, which presents opportunities in 2026.</li>
<li>Negative news did not push it further down; P/B is at over 1SD below average, and net cash-to-share price is 5.6pp above the historical average.</li>
<li>3Q25 margins are so depressed that sustaining the price war is difficult. As the 7th-heaviest HSI constituent, it is the one to move the Index next year. </li>
</ul>


After a tragic 61.4pp underperformance against the HSI in 2025, the market is almost unanimously bearish on Meituan (3690 HK), which presents opportunities in 2026.
Negative news did not push it further down; P/B is at over 1SD below average, and net cash-to-share price is 5.6pp above the historical average.
3Q25 margins are so depressed that sustaining the price war is difficult. As the 7th-heaviest HSI constituent, it is the one to move the Index next year. 


2026 High Conviction: Meituan (3690 HK) - Contrarian Perspectives

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.</li>
<li>The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$50bn (US$6.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi (1810 HK)</a> is the biggest buy due to HSIII Index inclusion and capping, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> is the biggest capping sell.</li>
</ul>


The December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$50bn (US$6.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.

Xiaomi (1810 HK) is the biggest buy due to HSIII Index inclusion and capping, while Alibaba (9988 HK) is the biggest capping sell.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Dec 2025)

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSI in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on HSBC, China Life, JD.COM, TRIP.COM, CCB, MEITUAN, China Life, Trip.Com, HSBC, Jd, CCB, Meituan.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSI in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on HSBC, China Life, JD.COM, TRIP.COM, CCB, MEITUAN, China Life, Trip.Com, HSBC, Jd, CCB, Meituan.


HSI Index Earning Revision (Nov): HSBC, China Life, JD.COM, TRIP.COM, CCB, MEITUAN, China Life

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HS TECH in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on JD.COM, JD Health, LI AUTO, BYD, BIDU, MEITUAN, TRIP.COM, Trip.Com, Jd, Bidu, BYD, Li Auto, Meituan, Jd Health.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HS TECH in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on JD.COM, JD Health, LI AUTO, BYD, BIDU, MEITUAN, TRIP.COM, Trip.Com, Jd, Bidu, BYD, Li Auto, Meituan, Jd Health.


HS TECH Index Earning Revision (Nov): JD.COM, JD Health, LI AUTO, BYD, BIDU, MEITUAN, TRIP.COM

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 14th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Xpeng (9868 HK), TraHK HSI ETF (2800 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 14th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Xpeng (9868 HK), TraHK HSI ETF (2800 HK).


China

BYD Electronic (International) Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells handset components and modules, and provides assembly services for mobile phones. The company offers one-stop product solutions leveraging electronic information, AI, 5G, and IoT technologies, with its business spanning smartphones, computers, new energy vehicles, smart home solutions, and communication equipment. It was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

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BYD Electronic (285 HK)

2026 High Conviction: Meituan (3690 HK) - Contrarian Perspectives

The market's unanimous bearish stance on Meituan creates opportunities in 2026, given its low P/B and high net cash-to-share price. Margins are so...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Dec 2025)

The Dec rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSHKBIO indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the...

Brian Freitas

HSI Index Earning Revision (Nov): HSBC, China Life, JD.COM, TRIP.COM, CCB, MEITUAN, China Life

We analyzed HSI's consensus for Nov 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in HSBC, China Life, JD.COM, TRIP.COM, CCB, MEITUAN, China Life, Trip.Com,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HS TECH Index Earning Revision (Nov): JD.COM, JD Health, LI AUTO, BYD, BIDU, MEITUAN, TRIP.COM

We analyzed HS TECH's consensus for Nov 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in JD.COM, JD Health, LI AUTO, BYD, BIDU, MEITUAN, TRIP.COM, Trip.Com,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: Xpeng

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 14th and highlight short interest changes in Xpeng, TraHK HSI ETF.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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