External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

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External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The CAD is ending the week with a small net gain versus a generally strong USD, outperforming is core G10 and most of its commodity peers.</li><li>The CAD was also one of the least volatile major currencies this week as the USD pivoted narrowly around 1.44.</li><li>The USD popped higher on the back of stronger than forecast jobs data but the CAD remained resilient, making marginal gains on solid-looking Canadian employment report for December</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The CAD is ending the week with a small net gain versus a generally strong USD, outperforming is core G10 and most of its commodity peers.The CAD was also one of the least volatile major currencies this week as the USD pivoted narrowly around 1.44.The USD popped higher on the back of stronger than forecast jobs data but the CAD remained resilient, making marginal gains on solid-looking Canadian employment report for DecemberContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Steady as Uncertainty Mounts

<ul><li>Our recently updated forecasts reflected a sharp U-turn in our views on the USD following the outcome of the US presidential election.</li><li>President-elect Trump’s plans to pursue deregulation, tax cuts and tariffs implied more upside potential in the US economy, higher for longer US rates and a strong for longer USD.</li><li>We adjusted our FX forecasts significantly in response and call for USDCAD reach 1.45 in H2 2025 and hold there through the end of the year. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our recently updated forecasts reflected a sharp U-turn in our views on the USD following the outcome of the US presidential election.President-elect Trump’s plans to pursue deregulation, tax cuts and tariffs implied more upside potential in the US economy, higher for longer US rates and a strong for longer USD.We adjusted our FX forecasts significantly in response and call for USDCAD reach 1.45 in H2 2025 and hold there through the end of the year. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - CAD Ruffled by Political Uncertainty

<ul><li>CFTC data for the week through December 10 reflects a small improvement in overall USD bullish sentiment.</li><li>Aggregate net Non-Commercial USD longs versus the major currencies we cover in this report rose USD1.5bn to USD24.3bn.</li><li>Additional data shows Real Money (institutional) traders cut their small net USD long from the prior week back to zero while Leveraged (hedge fund) traders boosted net USD longs by about USD2bn to USD10.5bn. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC data for the week through December 10 reflects a small improvement in overall USD bullish sentiment.Aggregate net Non-Commercial USD longs versus the major currencies we cover in this report rose USD1.5bn to USD24.3bn.Additional data shows Real Money (institutional) traders cut their small net USD long from the prior week back to zero while Leveraged (hedge fund) traders boosted net USD longs by about USD2bn to USD10.5bn. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Data - USD Bull Sentiment Strengthens

<ul><li>A larger-than-forecast rise in the Canadian unemployment rate to 6.8% in November, leaves the CAD trading defensively into the end of the week.</li><li>The US employment data largely met expectations, supporting the outlook for a 1/4-point cut from the Fed later this month but the odds of a 1/2-point move from the Bank of Canada next week have strengthened.</li><li>Swaps now indicate 44bps of anticipated easing Wednesday.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

A larger-than-forecast rise in the Canadian unemployment rate to 6.8% in November, leaves the CAD trading defensively into the end of the week.The US employment data largely met expectations, supporting the outlook for a 1/4-point cut from the Fed later this month but the odds of a 1/2-point move from the Bank of Canada next week have strengthened.Swaps now indicate 44bps of anticipated easing Wednesday.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Prone to More Losses, Limited Scope for Rebounds

<ul><li>The latest snapshot of FX sentiment from the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders data shows little change in USD positioning overall through early December, with traders perhaps lacking the motivation to adjust exposures after the Thanksgiving break.</li><li>Aggregate long USD positioning among Non-Commercial (speculative) accounts fell USD498mn over the week to USD22.8bn—after holding steady at USD23.3bn over the prior two weeks.</li><li>Additional data shows Leveraged traders (hedge funds) adding about USD1.5bn to net long USD positions, taking exposure up to USD8.5bn, while Institutional (real money) traders doubled net long USDs to USD3bn.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The latest snapshot of FX sentiment from the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders data shows little change in USD positioning overall through early December, with traders perhaps lacking the motivation to adjust exposures after the Thanksgiving break.Aggregate long USD positioning among Non-Commercial (speculative) accounts fell USD498mn over the week to USD22.8bn—after holding steady at USD23.3bn over the prior two weeks.Additional data shows Leveraged traders (hedge funds) adding about USD1.5bn to net long USD positions, taking exposure up to USD8.5bn, while Institutional (real money) traders doubled net long USDs to USD3bn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment/Positioning Stable

Canada

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

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CAD (USDCAD CURNCY)

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Steady as Uncertainty Mounts

The CAD is ending the week with a small net gain versus a generally strong USD, outperforming is core G10 and most of its commodity peers.

Scotiabank

FX Snapshot - CAD Ruffled by Political Uncertainty

Our recently updated forecasts reflected a sharp U-turn in our views on the USD following the outcome of the US presidential election.

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Data - USD Bull Sentiment Strengthens

Speculative traders moved in different directions on the major currencies. They boosted net JPY longs USD1.9bn and lifted net GBP longs by USD634mn.

Scotiabank

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Prone to More Losses, Limited Scope for Rebounds

A larger-than-forecast rise in the Canadian unemployment rate to 6.8% in November, leaves the CAD trading defensively into the end of the week.

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment/Positioning Stable

The latest snapshot of FX sentiment from the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders data shows little change in USD positioning overall through early December

Scotiabank

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