External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>CFTC data reflects broadly steady positioning in the USD amongst all market participants running into the US Thanksgiving break last week.</li><li>Trends were split across specific currency contracts but aggregate exposure to the USD among NonCommercial (speculative) accounts was all but unchanged (just USD14mn higher, to be precise) on the week at USD23.3bn.</li><li>Leveraged traders (hedge funds) pared some USD2bn from their net long USD positions, taking exposure down to USD6.9bn, and Institutional (real money) traders held their tentative net long USD position little changed at USD1.3bn</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC data reflects broadly steady positioning in the USD amongst all market participants running into the US Thanksgiving break last week.Trends were split across specific currency contracts but aggregate exposure to the USD among NonCommercial (speculative) accounts was all but unchanged (just USD14mn higher, to be precise) on the week at USD23.3bn.Leveraged traders (hedge funds) pared some USD2bn from their net long USD positions, taking exposure down to USD6.9bn, and Institutional (real money) traders held their tentative net long USD position little changed at USD1.3bnContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Mixed but Stable into Holiday Break

<ul><li>I participated in a client call earlier today with my colleagues in Toronto, New York and Mexico where we all had a chance to give our assessment of the potential impact of Monday’s surprising news that President-elect Trump would impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on day one of his term unless border security was tightened up significantly.</li><li>We all broadly agreed that is a threat— leverage—to achieve non-trade-related goals rather than a real risk at this point.</li><li>The following is an attempt to summarize the FX-related content of the call.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

I participated in a client call earlier today with my colleagues in Toronto, New York and Mexico where we all had a chance to give our assessment of the potential impact of Monday’s surprising news that President-elect Trump would impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on day one of his term unless border security was tightened up significantly.We all broadly agreed that is a threat— leverage—to achieve non-trade-related goals rather than a real risk at this point.The following is an attempt to summarize the FX-related content of the call.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - USDCAD and Trump’s Tariffs

<ul><li>The latest snapshot of market positioning and investors sentiment on the major currencies form the CFTC shows a further increase in aggregate USD long positioning.</li><li>No great surprise, perhaps. Overall net long USD positioning among NonCommercial (speculative) accounts showed an increase of USD5.6bn in the week through last Tuesday, taking USD net longs (aggregated across the major currencies we monitor for this report) to USD23.3bn—back to peak USD bullishness seen through June of this year.</li><li>Additional data shows Leveraged traders (hedge funds) adding modestly again to net long USD positioning (USD8.9bn) while Institutional (real money) traders initiated their first net long USD position since late April.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The latest snapshot of market positioning and investors sentiment on the major currencies form the CFTC shows a further increase in aggregate USD long positioning.No great surprise, perhaps. Overall net long USD positioning among NonCommercial (speculative) accounts showed an increase of USD5.6bn in the week through last Tuesday, taking USD net longs (aggregated across the major currencies we monitor for this report) to USD23.3bn—back to peak USD bullishness seen through June of this year.Additional data shows Leveraged traders (hedge funds) adding modestly again to net long USD positioning (USD8.9bn) while Institutional (real money) traders initiated their first net long USD position since late April.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish EUR Sentiment Strengthens

<ul><li>The CAD has weakened to its lowest since 2020 in the wake of the US presidential election.</li><li>Broad strength in the USD followed the result as markets anticipated pro-growth and potentially inflationary policy moves by the incoming Trump administration.</li><li>The US swaps curve was in the process of revising Fed rate cut expectations even before the election amid resilient US growth and signs that the FOMC was less likely to follow up September’s rate 1/2-point rate cut with another bold move. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The CAD has weakened to its lowest since 2020 in the wake of the US presidential election.Broad strength in the USD followed the result as markets anticipated pro-growth and potentially inflationary policy moves by the incoming Trump administration.The US swaps curve was in the process of revising Fed rate cut expectations even before the election amid resilient US growth and signs that the FOMC was less likely to follow up September’s rate 1/2-point rate cut with another bold move. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Liable to Drop Further in Coming Weeks

<ul><li>The CAD is down modestly against the USD on the week, just about holding above 2-year range lows.</li><li>It is trading a little better than its commodity peers on the week but underperforming slightly versus the EUR, GBP and JPY.</li><li>The shift in CAD-negative variables appears to have stabilized, with the CAD fair value estimate holding around 1.3930 since mid-week. Measured correlations are very weak. Things are not getting worse but they are not getting obviously better for the CAD. Reaching to clutch a couple of CADpositive straws, the TRIX oscillator is rolling over more clearly. It has done a decent job of catching broader peaks and troughs in USDCAD recently. And, looking back over the past few years, the USD has tended to peak around this time of the year and these sorts of levels (October 2022 ~ 1.3977 and November 2023 ~ 1.39).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The CAD is down modestly against the USD on the week, just about holding above 2-year range lows.It is trading a little better than its commodity peers on the week but underperforming slightly versus the EUR, GBP and JPY.The shift in CAD-negative variables appears to have stabilized, with the CAD fair value estimate holding around 1.3930 since mid-week. Measured correlations are very weak. Things are not getting worse but they are not getting obviously better for the CAD. Reaching to clutch a couple of CADpositive straws, the TRIX oscillator is rolling over more clearly. It has done a decent job of catching broader peaks and troughs in USDCAD recently. And, looking back over the past few years, the USD has tended to peak around this time of the year and these sorts of levels (October 2022 ~ 1.3977 and November 2023 ~ 1.39).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CAD Weekly Outlook - Soft CAD Steadying Near Recent Lows

Canada

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

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CAD (USDCAD CURNCY)

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Mixed but Stable into Holiday Break

CFTC data reflects broadly steady positioning in the USD amongst all market participants running into the US Thanksgiving break last week.

Scotiabank

FX Snapshot - USDCAD and Trump’s Tariffs

We all broadly agreed that is a threat— leverage—to achieve non-trade-related goals rather than a real risk at this point. The following is an...

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish EUR Sentiment Strengthens

The latest snapshot of market positioning and investors sentiment on the major currencies form the CFTC shows a further increase in aggregate USD...

Scotiabank

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Liable to Drop Further in Coming Weeks

The CAD has weakened to its lowest since 2020 in the wake of the US presidential election. Broad strength in the USD followed the result as markets...

Scotiabank

CAD Weekly Outlook - Soft CAD Steadying Near Recent Lows

It is trading a little better than its commodity peers on the week but underperforming slightly versus the EUR, GBP and JPY.

Scotiabank

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