External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

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External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Market sentiment continues to shift in favour of the USD, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC for the week through last Tuesday.</li><li>Non-Commercial (speculative) traders took a small net USD short position to a sizeable net USD long position overall, via a USD10bn swing in aggregate positioning in the major currencies we monitor for this report.</li><li>Additional data shows Leveraged (hedge fund) traders cutting their USD4bn net USD short from last week to near flat while Real Money (institutional) halved their net USD short over the week to a little less than USD9bn.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Market sentiment continues to shift in favour of the USD, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC for the week through last Tuesday.Non-Commercial (speculative) traders took a small net USD short position to a sizeable net USD long position overall, via a USD10bn swing in aggregate positioning in the major currencies we monitor for this report.Additional data shows Leveraged (hedge fund) traders cutting their USD4bn net USD short from last week to near flat while Real Money (institutional) halved their net USD short over the week to a little less than USD9bn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative Sentiment Turns USD Bullish

<ul><li>The US dollar (USD) has underperformed in the third quarter, reflecting a constellation of factors that have shaken up currency trading and injected renewed volatility into markets.</li><li>We had expected the USD to ease somewhat in H2 as cyclical factors turn less supportive and while USD losses have moderated somewhat in recent trading, the net impact is still a somewhat weaker USD than we had anticipated at this stage.</li><li>USD weakness can be largely explained by the following. Firstly, US yields eased in July and fell sharply in August following the release of a weaker-than-expected US July employment report. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The US dollar (USD) has underperformed in the third quarter, reflecting a constellation of factors that have shaken up currency trading and injected renewed volatility into markets.We had expected the USD to ease somewhat in H2 as cyclical factors turn less supportive and while USD losses have moderated somewhat in recent trading, the net impact is still a somewhat weaker USD than we had anticipated at this stage.USD weakness can be largely explained by the following. Firstly, US yields eased in July and fell sharply in August following the release of a weaker-than-expected US July employment report. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD is trading mixed to a little lower overall on the session after a bull run that has stretched for 11 consecutive days through Monday’s trading.</li><li>Among developed market currencies, these sorts of sustained daily or weekly bull/bear runs rarely extend for deeply into double digits (more than 10 days or weeks in one direction, in other words) without some sort of pause or pull back.</li><li>The USD is looking generally over extended and prone to a minor correction at least on the charts but that does not necessarily mean a deep or sustained drop. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD is trading mixed to a little lower overall on the session after a bull run that has stretched for 11 consecutive days through Monday’s trading.Among developed market currencies, these sorts of sustained daily or weekly bull/bear runs rarely extend for deeply into double digits (more than 10 days or weeks in one direction, in other words) without some sort of pause or pull back.The USD is looking generally over extended and prone to a minor correction at least on the charts but that does not necessarily mean a deep or sustained drop. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - USDCAD Winning Streak Tests History

<ul><li>USDCAD’s push through resistance in the mid-1.36s at the start of the month set in motion a sustained rise in the USD to retest minor resistance at 1.3850, the peak from April.</li><li>A doublebottom (1.3440/45) interpretation of price action over the past couple of months would suggest that the USD’s rally is now more or less complete.</li><li>That is also reflected in very overbought intraday and daily (DMI, RSI) oscillator signals. Overbought/oversold conditions can prevail for an extended period so there is no guarantee of a CAD rebound at this point. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

USDCAD’s push through resistance in the mid-1.36s at the start of the month set in motion a sustained rise in the USD to retest minor resistance at 1.3850, the peak from April.A doublebottom (1.3440/45) interpretation of price action over the past couple of months would suggest that the USD’s rally is now more or less complete.That is also reflected in very overbought intraday and daily (DMI, RSI) oscillator signals. Overbought/oversold conditions can prevail for an extended period so there is no guarantee of a CAD rebound at this point. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>While the Bank of Canada’s 1/2 point rate cut Wednesday predictably left the CAD under pressure, the currency has outperformed many of its major currency peers on the week overall, suggesting broader USD strength as much as lower domestic interest rates account for USDCAD’s push to Thursday’s peak just under 1.3870.</li><li>The CAD has steadied today but scope for gains remains limited. Fundamental fair value sits at 1.3857 and the correlation screen highlights spreads as the primary influence on spot at the moment.</li><li>The CAD needs much lower US rates or a major sentiment shift on the USD if it is to improve significantly in the short run at least. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

While the Bank of Canada’s 1/2 point rate cut Wednesday predictably left the CAD under pressure, the currency has outperformed many of its major currency peers on the week overall, suggesting broader USD strength as much as lower domestic interest rates account for USDCAD’s push to Thursday’s peak just under 1.3870.The CAD has steadied today but scope for gains remains limited. Fundamental fair value sits at 1.3857 and the correlation screen highlights spreads as the primary influence on spot at the moment.The CAD needs much lower US rates or a major sentiment shift on the USD if it is to improve significantly in the short run at least. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CAD Weekly outlook – USDCAD Firm but Overbought

Canada

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

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CAD (USDCAD CURNCY)

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative Sentiment Turns USD Bullish

Market sentiment continues to shift in favour of the USD, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC for the week through...

Scotiabank

Monthly FX Outlook – September 2024

The US dollar (USD) has underperformed in the third quarter, reflecting a constellation of factors that have shaken up currency trading and...

Scotiabank

FX Snapshot - USDCAD Winning Streak Tests History

FX Market Update—The USD is trading mixed to a little lower overall on the session after a bull run that has stretched for 11 consecutive days...

Scotiabank

CAD Technical Overview

USDCAD’s push through resistance in the mid-1.36s at the start of the month set in motion a sustained rise in the USD to retest minor resistance at...

Scotiabank

CAD Weekly outlook – USDCAD Firm but Overbought

While the Bank of Canada’s 1/2 point rate cut Wednesday predictably left the CAD under pressure, the currency has outperformed many of its major...

Scotiabank

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