External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD rallied hard on the back of Friday’s US jobs data as US yields popped sharply higher and the currency has built on those gains early Monday following Fed Chairman Powell’s “60 Minutes” interview last night (pre-recorded ahead of the NFP data) which further doused market expectations for a March rate cut.</li><li>Powell said the “danger of moving too soon is that the job is not done” and reiterated that policymakers may not have enough confidence that inflation is moving lower in a sustainable way by March.</li><li>March swaps reflect just 4bps of easing now, with a full 25bps cut not reflected in OIS pricing until June. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD rallied hard on the back of Friday’s US jobs data as US yields popped sharply higher and the currency has built on those gains early Monday following Fed Chairman Powell’s “60 Minutes” interview last night (pre-recorded ahead of the NFP data) which further doused market expectations for a March rate cut.Powell said the “danger of moving too soon is that the job is not done” and reiterated that policymakers may not have enough confidence that inflation is moving lower in a sustainable way by March.March swaps reflect just 4bps of easing now, with a full 25bps cut not reflected in OIS pricing until June. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Recovery Extends on Higher US Yields

<ul><li>The USD remains range-bound in broad terms and is trading mixed on the session again in the absence of a stronger sense of direction across the major currencies.</li><li>Gains in the dollar index (DXY) peaked around 103.8 yesterday, equating to a retest of last week’s high.</li><li>The turn lower in the index tilts short-term technical risks to the downside and a test of the 103 area but whether the markets can muster the momentum to push lower ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision remains to be seen. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD remains range-bound in broad terms and is trading mixed on the session again in the absence of a stronger sense of direction across the major currencies.Gains in the dollar index (DXY) peaked around 103.8 yesterday, equating to a retest of last week’s high.The turn lower in the index tilts short-term technical risks to the downside and a test of the 103 area but whether the markets can muster the momentum to push lower ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision remains to be seen. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The latest snapshot of FX sentiment and positioning provided by the CFTC data for the week through January 23rd reflect a further reduction in overall USD bearishness, in keeping with the broader USD rebound seen in early 2024 so far.</li><li>Non-commercial (speculative) traders pared aggregate USD shorts (against the major currencies we monitor for this report) USD3.6bn in the week through last Tuesday, taking the overall net short back to USD5.7bn.</li><li>Additional data shows Institutional Accounts (real money traders) clipping aggregate USD longs USD4.5bn on the week while Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) reduced a small net long from the prior couple of weeks to effectively flat</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The latest snapshot of FX sentiment and positioning provided by the CFTC data for the week through January 23rd reflect a further reduction in overall USD bearishness, in keeping with the broader USD rebound seen in early 2024 so far.Non-commercial (speculative) traders pared aggregate USD shorts (against the major currencies we monitor for this report) USD3.6bn in the week through last Tuesday, taking the overall net short back to USD5.7bn.Additional data shows Institutional Accounts (real money traders) clipping aggregate USD longs USD4.5bn on the week while Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) reduced a small net long from the prior couple of weeks to effectively flatContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Improves on EUR Long Liquidation

<ul><li>Markets reacted somewhat oddly to the BoC policy decision.</li><li>While the policy statement removed the wording around the suggestion that policy could be tightened further, that is hardly a surprising development, given that the last rate hike came in July.</li><li>There were few other dovish concessions in the statement, which rather laboured on about inflation and, especially, the persistence of underlying inflation. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Markets reacted somewhat oddly to the BoC policy decision.While the policy statement removed the wording around the suggestion that policy could be tightened further, that is hardly a surprising development, given that the last rate hike came in July.There were few other dovish concessions in the statement, which rather laboured on about inflation and, especially, the persistence of underlying inflation. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - US Data May Shift USDCAD Range

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD is trading narrowly mixed against the core majors on the session so far but early losses in the EUR are helping lift the DXY back towards the ceiling of the recent consolidation range in the index and giving the USD a generally firmer look.</li><li>The JPY and AUD are leading gains among the G10 currencies, with the KRW and ZAR at the top of the overnight performance league for the expanded major currency universe.</li><li>The BoJ left monetary policy settings on hold, as expected. But Governor Ueda’s said certainty around the price outlook was rising and that policy makers would consider raising rates if the Bank’s price objectives are in sight. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD is trading narrowly mixed against the core majors on the session so far but early losses in the EUR are helping lift the DXY back towards the ceiling of the recent consolidation range in the index and giving the USD a generally firmer look.The JPY and AUD are leading gains among the G10 currencies, with the KRW and ZAR at the top of the overnight performance league for the expanded major currency universe.The BoJ left monetary policy settings on hold, as expected. But Governor Ueda’s said certainty around the price outlook was rising and that policy makers would consider raising rates if the Bank’s price objectives are in sight. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Canada

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

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CAD (USDCAD CURNCY)

FX Daily - USD Recovery Extends on Higher US Yields

Powell said the “danger of moving too soon is that the job is not done” and reiterated that policymakers may not have enough confidence that...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Slips on Lower Yields

The USD remains range-bound in broad terms and is trading mixed on the session again in the absence of a stronger sense of direction across the...

Scotiabank

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Improves on EUR Long Liquidation

The latest snapshot of FX sentiment and positioning provided by the CFTC data for the week through January 23rd reflect a further reduction in...

Scotiabank

FX Snapshot - US Data May Shift USDCAD Range

While the policy statement removed the wording around the suggestion that policy could be tightened further, that is hardly a surprising...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - EUR Weakness Boosts DXY

The JPY and AUD are leading gains among the G10 currencies, with the KRW and ZAR at the top of the overnight performance league for the expanded...

Scotiabank

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