External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

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External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>CFTC positioning data show a second successive improvement in speculative USD sentiment but the improvement is limited (less than USD500mn) and Speculative Accounts retain a net short USD position on aggregate of USD12.5bn.</li><li>This is little changed over the past three weeks, perhaps reflecting light, summer trading. Real Money Accounts retain a sizeable aggregate USD short position (USD38bn, up a little under USD2bn on the week) while Leveraged Accounts reversed a small, aggregate USD short position to a minor net long (USD5bn).</li><li>These hedge fund traders have tended to hold a similarly sized net USD long on aggregate since March.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC positioning data show a second successive improvement in speculative USD sentiment but the improvement is limited (less than USD500mn) and Speculative Accounts retain a net short USD position on aggregate of USD12.5bn.This is little changed over the past three weeks, perhaps reflecting light, summer trading. Real Money Accounts retain a sizeable aggregate USD short position (USD38bn, up a little under USD2bn on the week) while Leveraged Accounts reversed a small, aggregate USD short position to a minor net long (USD5bn).These hedge fund traders have tended to hold a similarly sized net USD long on aggregate since March.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative USD Sentiment Improves Slightly

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD is running into the end of the year on a soft note.</li><li>Seasonal trends pointed that way but CAD gains have been bolstered by the stronger risk appetite, as markets price in Fed rate cuts, and firmer industrial metals the correlation table suggests.</li><li>CAD gains are running ahead of fair value but, after a sustained period of undervaluation, that trend may persist. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is running into the end of the year on a soft note.Seasonal trends pointed that way but CAD gains have been bolstered by the stronger risk appetite, as markets price in Fed rate cuts, and firmer industrial metals the correlation table suggests.CAD gains are running ahead of fair value but, after a sustained period of undervaluation, that trend may persist. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>High beta currencies have done well over the past week.</li><li>A crack in the Fed’s hawkishness at last Wednesday’s FOMC boosted risk appetite and lifted pro-cyclical currencies.</li><li>Top of the pack over the last five trading sessions is the NOK (helped by the jump in Brent around Red Sea focus, for sure), followed by the ZAR, AUD, SEK and NZD.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

High beta currencies have done well over the past week.A crack in the Fed’s hawkishness at last Wednesday’s FOMC boosted risk appetite and lifted pro-cyclical currencies.Top of the pack over the last five trading sessions is the NOK (helped by the jump in Brent around Red Sea focus, for sure), followed by the ZAR, AUD, SEK and NZD.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - Stretched Valuation Does Not Preclude More USDCAD Losses

<ul><li>This week’s CFTC data reflect a deepening of USD bearish sentiment among investors.</li><li>Aggregate USD short positioning by Non -Commercial (speculative) accounts doubled in the week through Tuesday to reach USD6.3bn.</li><li>Additional data shows Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) reducing net USD longs slightly but exposure is holding close to recent levels.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

This week’s CFTC data reflect a deepening of USD bearish sentiment among investors.Aggregate USD short positioning by Non -Commercial (speculative) accounts doubled in the week through Tuesday to reach USD6.3bn.Additional data shows Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) reducing net USD longs slightly but exposure is holding close to recent levels.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Sentiment Grows, JPY Shorts Covered

<ul><li>So, the Fed is finished raising interest rates and given their revised outlook for lower inflation and slower growth, Fed Chairman Powell conceded that policymakers were now starting to think about when rate cuts will be appropriate.</li><li>The concession that the timing of rate cuts was now up for discussion was a more dovish development than markets were expecting.</li><li>Up until the blackout for this meeting, senior Fed officials were stressing the risk of policy remaining high for longer to combat inflation and, in that context, some pushback on market pricing for rate cuts would not have surprised yesterday.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

So, the Fed is finished raising interest rates and given their revised outlook for lower inflation and slower growth, Fed Chairman Powell conceded that policymakers were now starting to think about when rate cuts will be appropriate.The concession that the timing of rate cuts was now up for discussion was a more dovish development than markets were expecting.Up until the blackout for this meeting, senior Fed officials were stressing the risk of policy remaining high for longer to combat inflation and, in that context, some pushback on market pricing for rate cuts would not have surprised yesterday.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Canada

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

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CAD (USDCAD CURNCY)

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative USD Sentiment Improves Slightly

CFTC positioning data show a second successive improvement in speculative USD sentiment but the improvement is limited (less than USD500mn)

Scotiabank

CAD Weekly Outlook - Merry CADmas

The USD is running into the end of the year on a soft note. Seasonal trends pointed that way but CAD gains have been bolstered by the stronger risk...

Scotiabank

FX Snapshot - Stretched Valuation Does Not Preclude More USDCAD Losses

High beta currencies have done well over the past week. A crack in the Fed’s hawkishness at last Wednesday’s FOMC boosted risk appetite and lifted...

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Sentiment Grows, JPY Shorts Covered

Aggregate USD short positioning by Non -Commercial (speculative) accounts doubled in the week through Tuesday to reach USD6.3bn.

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Slump Extends After FOMC

USD broadly lower in the wake of the Fed decision; more losses look likely. CAD gains on soft USD fall out. Spot loses squeeze CAD shorts.

Scotiabank

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