Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>US economic growth has shown exceptional resilience, with a strong payrolls report and other positive macroeconomic factors</li><li>Higher US yields may put pressure on dollar shorts and lead to a potential capitulation in those positions</li><li>Canadian dollar baskets may outperform in this environment, with higher US yields benefiting the CAD</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

US economic growth has shown exceptional resilience, with a strong payrolls report and other positive macroeconomic factorsHigher US yields may put pressure on dollar shorts and lead to a potential capitulation in those positionsCanadian dollar baskets may outperform in this environment, with higher US yields benefiting the CADThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: It was hard enough in the first place

<ul><li>Market pricing suggests nearly a 50% chance of a 50 basis point cut by the Fed, leading to uncertainty in the market.</li><li>The direction of the Fed's policy is clear regardless of the cut amount, with aggressive easing likely to continue throughout the year.</li><li>Concerns about labor market weakness in Canada have prompted the Bank of Canada to shift its focus from inflation to potential weakening in economic activity.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Market pricing suggests nearly a 50% chance of a 50 basis point cut by the Fed, leading to uncertainty in the market.The direction of the Fed's policy is clear regardless of the cut amount, with aggressive easing likely to continue throughout the year.Concerns about labor market weakness in Canada have prompted the Bank of Canada to shift its focus from inflation to potential weakening in economic activity.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Implications from FOMC and other G10 central banks

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>A lot is happening in markets ahead of what could be a significant turning point in sentiment, with the August CPI report landing in our inboxes at 14:30 CPH time.</li><li>The debate between Harris and Trump seems to have set the tone in markets leading up to the event, with the USD selling off as markets agree that Trump is likely the more bullish of the two on USD.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.A lot is happening in markets ahead of what could be a significant turning point in sentiment, with the August CPI report landing in our inboxes at 14:30 CPH time.The debate between Harris and Trump seems to have set the tone in markets leading up to the event, with the USD selling off as markets agree that Trump is likely the more bullish of the two on USD.

Positioning Watch: Markets Are Positioned for Softness (in Rates)

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>It’s been a relatively uneventful week, and we haven’t been overly active as we await September trends for our portfolio.</li><li>Examining our underlying model package, we’ve identified two major themes worth noting for the month ahead: the sudden weakness in China and the impending drawdown in USD liquidity.</li><li>Starting with China, we’ve highlighted how pollution levels are plummeting, while congestion data from ports, roads, and metros declined significantly in August.</li></ul>

It’s been a relatively uneventful week, and we haven’t been overly active as we await September trends for our portfolio.Examining our underlying model package, we’ve identified two major themes worth noting for the month ahead: the sudden weakness in China and the impending drawdown in USD liquidity.Starting with China, we’ve highlighted how pollution levels are plummeting, while congestion data from ports, roads, and metros declined significantly in August.

Portfolio Watch: Preparing for a nasty September due to liquidity

<ul><li>Markets remain focused on 2-3 rate cuts from the Fed, growth not rolling over fully, and inflation continuing its downward trajectory.</li><li>There seems to be no way to change this narrative among market participants.</li><li>The slightly hawkish PCE in the US and today’s relatively high German inflation print (in harmonized terms) had a hard time moving rates markets, which are currently pricing more than 2.5 cuts from the Fed and more than 2 cuts from the ECB by year-end, with Fed September pricing even showing a tiny lean towards 50 bps.</li></ul>

Markets remain focused on 2-3 rate cuts from the Fed, growth not rolling over fully, and inflation continuing its downward trajectory.There seems to be no way to change this narrative among market participants.The slightly hawkish PCE in the US and today’s relatively high German inflation print (in harmonized terms) had a hard time moving rates markets, which are currently pricing more than 2.5 cuts from the Fed and more than 2 cuts from the ECB by year-end, with Fed September pricing even showing a tiny lean towards 50 bps.

Positioning Watch – Metals bets are finally being squared, but retail is piling in

Canada

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

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CAD (USDCAD CURNCY)

Global FX: It was hard enough in the first place

The US economy is experiencing strong growth, with blockbuster payrolls reports exceeding expectations, while markets grapple with interest rate...

At Any Rate

Global FX: Implications from FOMC and other G10 central banks

Market pricing and economist forecasts indicate a significant chance of a 50 basis point cut by the Fed, while Canada's labor market weakness is...

At Any Rate

Positioning Watch: Markets Are Positioned for Softness (in Rates)

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch. A lot is happening in markets ahead of what could be a significant turning point...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Preparing for a nasty September due to liquidity

It’s been a relatively uneventful week, and we haven’t been overly active as we await September trends for our portfolio. Examining our underlying...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Metals bets are finally being squared, but retail is piling in

Markets remain focused on 2-3 rate cuts from the Fed, growth not rolling over fully, and inflation continuing its downward trajectory. There seems...

Steno Research

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