External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Our note from February 19th suggested that we were perhaps “passing through the eye of the tariff storm” at that point as markets reacted relatively calmly to the torrent of tariff threats from the White House.</li><li>Developments over the past 24 hours suggest that the next wave of tariff uncertainty is breaking over markets.</li><li>I, like many other I suspect, had felt that the levying of 25% tariffs was highly unlikely. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our note from February 19th suggested that we were perhaps “passing through the eye of the tariff storm” at that point as markets reacted relatively calmly to the torrent of tariff threats from the White House.Developments over the past 24 hours suggest that the next wave of tariff uncertainty is breaking over markets.I, like many other I suspect, had felt that the levying of 25% tariffs was highly unlikely. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - Tariff Pile On to Keep the CAD Under Pressure

<ul><li>CFTC data for the week through Tuesday February 25th reflects a significant further decline in broader USD bullish sentiment.</li><li>Net Non-Commercial (speculative) traders slashed core net USD longs USD8.1bn over the week, the largest one-week sentiment shift against the USD since last August.</li><li>That trend was reflected across data covering other market participants. Leveraged accounts (hedge funds) trimmed net USD longs USD2.3bn while Real Money (institutional) traders moved off neutral on the USD to open a USD6bn net short, their first bearish positioning on the USD in aggregate since early November. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC data for the week through Tuesday February 25th reflects a significant further decline in broader USD bullish sentiment.Net Non-Commercial (speculative) traders slashed core net USD longs USD8.1bn over the week, the largest one-week sentiment shift against the USD since last August.That trend was reflected across data covering other market participants. Leveraged accounts (hedge funds) trimmed net USD longs USD2.3bn while Real Money (institutional) traders moved off neutral on the USD to open a USD6bn net short, their first bearish positioning on the USD in aggregate since early November. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bullish USD Sentiment in Retreat

<ul><li>Bullish USD sentiment continues to fade. Net Non-Commercial (speculative) USD longs eased USD3bn on aggregate to USD23.5bn in the latest CFTC report covering the week through February 18th.</li><li>Additional data shows aggregate USD long positions held by Leveraged accounts (hedge funds) down USD2.5bn while Real Money (institutional) traders pared aggregate USD longs by a similar amount to sit net flat overall on the USD.</li><li>Combined net USD longs are down by a little over USD8bn in the latest data to total USD37.4bn, the lowest aggregate USD net long since the end of last year and down significantly from peak USD bullishness of near USD61bn seen in mid-January.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bullish USD sentiment continues to fade. Net Non-Commercial (speculative) USD longs eased USD3bn on aggregate to USD23.5bn in the latest CFTC report covering the week through February 18th.Additional data shows aggregate USD long positions held by Leveraged accounts (hedge funds) down USD2.5bn while Real Money (institutional) traders pared aggregate USD longs by a similar amount to sit net flat overall on the USD.Combined net USD longs are down by a little over USD8bn in the latest data to total USD37.4bn, the lowest aggregate USD net long since the end of last year and down significantly from peak USD bullishness of near USD61bn seen in mid-January.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Bullish Sentiment Fades

<ul><li>Markets are perhaps passing through the eye of the tariff storm.</li><li>After the first round of tariff threats leveled at Canada, Mexico and China over border and drug issues, President Trump’s tariff net has been cast wider to threaten, steel and aluminum, reciprocal tariffs on the US’ trading partners and, yesterday, the promise of 25% tariffs on (all?) autos, drugs and computer chip imports.</li><li>Markets have, perhaps become somewhat hardened to the president’s near constant threats of tariffs which are either delayed (as in the case of Canada and Mexico) or fail to appear without much explanation (as in the case of reciprocal tariffs).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Markets are perhaps passing through the eye of the tariff storm.After the first round of tariff threats leveled at Canada, Mexico and China over border and drug issues, President Trump’s tariff net has been cast wider to threaten, steel and aluminum, reciprocal tariffs on the US’ trading partners and, yesterday, the promise of 25% tariffs on (all?) autos, drugs and computer chip imports.Markets have, perhaps become somewhat hardened to the president’s near constant threats of tariffs which are either delayed (as in the case of Canada and Mexico) or fail to appear without much explanation (as in the case of reciprocal tariffs).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - CAD Volatility Slips, Spot May Settle into Range

<ul><li>The trend in recent CFTC data reports has reflected a moderation in bullish USD sentiment since the mid-January peak and that trend continued with the latest report filed on Friday.</li><li>Aggregate net long USD positioning among Non-Commercial (speculative) traders dropped USD4.7bn to USD26.5bn, the largest decline since late September (though that was just before the USD started its three-month rally).</li><li>Softening bullish sentiment is reflected in reduced net USD longs held by Leveraged (hedge fund) traders, which fell USD1bn to USD14.2bn while Real Money (institutional) traders slashed net USD longs by more than half to USD2.4bn this week. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The trend in recent CFTC data reports has reflected a moderation in bullish USD sentiment since the mid-January peak and that trend continued with the latest report filed on Friday.Aggregate net long USD positioning among Non-Commercial (speculative) traders dropped USD4.7bn to USD26.5bn, the largest decline since late September (though that was just before the USD started its three-month rally).Softening bullish sentiment is reflected in reduced net USD longs held by Leveraged (hedge fund) traders, which fell USD1bn to USD14.2bn while Real Money (institutional) traders slashed net USD longs by more than half to USD2.4bn this week. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Fades as JPY Bulls Return

Canada

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

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CAD (USDCAD CURNCY)

FX Snapshot - Tariff Pile On to Keep the CAD Under Pressure

I, like many other I suspect, had felt that the levying of 25% tariffs was highly unlikely. Or, if it came to 25% tariffs, they would not be in...

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bullish USD Sentiment in Retreat

Combined net USD long positioning is down by USD16.5bn in the latest week’s data to USD21bn, a third of the bullish net position seen just seven...

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Bullish Sentiment Fades

Net Non-Commercial (speculative) USD longs eased USD3bn on aggregate to USD23.5bn in the latest CFTC report covering the week through February 18th.

Scotiabank

FX Snapshot - CAD Volatility Slips, Spot May Settle into Range

After the first round of tariff threats leveled at Canada, Mexico and China over border and drug issues, President Trump’s tariff net has been cast...

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Fades as JPY Bulls Return

The trend in recent CFTC data reports has reflected a moderation in bullish USD sentiment since the mid-January peak and that trend continued with...

Scotiabank

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