IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nayuki-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32149:1" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings (NYK HK)</a> is the second-largest premium teahouse chain in China accounting for 18.9% of China’s premium modern teahouse market as measured by total retail consumption value in 2020, according to CIC. It is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 million, according to press reports.</p></div><div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nayuki-holdings-ipo-initiation-a-new-leaf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48532" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings IPO Initiation: A New Leaf</a>, we noted that premium teahouses have rapidly gained popularity in China as they bring new tea-drinking experiences and benefit from the structural trend of consumer’s consumption upgrades driven by higher disposable income. We opined that Nayuki has the right ingredients to offer investors an attractive play on this market.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nayuki-holdings-ipo-drinking-habits" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52873" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings IPO: Drinking Habits</a>, we noted that recent results (disclosed in the PHIP) show that Nayuki is well-positioned as a post-COVID-19 recovery play. In this note, we take the first look at Nayuki's potential valuation. </p></div>
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Nayuki Holdings (NYK HK) is the second-largest premium teahouse chain in China accounting for 18.9% of China’s premium modern teahouse market as measured by total retail consumption value in 2020, according to CIC. It is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 million, according to press reports.
In Nayuki Holdings IPO Initiation: A New Leaf, we noted that premium teahouses have rapidly gained popularity in China as they bring new tea-drinking experiences and benefit from the structural trend of consumer’s consumption upgrades driven by higher disposable income. We opined that Nayuki has the right ingredients to offer investors an attractive play on this market.
In Nayuki Holdings IPO: Drinking Habits, we noted that recent results (disclosed in the PHIP) show that Nayuki is well-positioned as a post-COVID-19 recovery play. In this note, we take the first look at Nayuki's potential valuation. 


Nayuki Holdings IPO: Valuation First-Look

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The recent lockdown in Hong Kong proves that unless everyone is vaccinated, the risk of a lockdown remains. Although it is over within 48 hours, the HK SAR government does not rule out the possibility of similar actions taking place in the future. </p>
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<p>For Long Only Investor - Going long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissin-foods-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26062:1" rel="noopener">Nissin Foods (1475 HK)</a> may not a superior return especially when Hong Kong is in the second outbreak but it will serve as a hedge when another lockdown is proposed.</p>
<p>For Long Short Investor - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cafe-de-coral-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2568:1" rel="noopener">Cafe De Coral Holdings (341 HK)</a> is well known to be the go-to tea house for Hong Kong residents thus a lockdown in a few places will affect their business which means slower recovery and their home delivery service is not exactly performing well either. </p>
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The recent lockdown in Hong Kong proves that unless everyone is vaccinated, the risk of a lockdown remains. Although it is over within 48 hours, the HK SAR government does not rule out the possibility of similar actions taking place in the future. 

For Long Only Investor - Going long Nissin Foods (1475 HK) may not a superior return especially when Hong Kong is in the second outbreak but it will serve as a hedge when another lockdown is proposed.
For Long Short Investor - Cafe De Coral Holdings (341 HK) is well known to be the go-to tea house for Hong Kong residents thus a lockdown in a few places will affect their business which means slower recovery and their home delivery service is not exactly performing well either. 


HK Lockdown Ideas: Long Nissin Food and Short Cafe De Coral

Equity Bottom-Up

Cafe De Coral Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cafe-de-coral-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2568:1" rel="noopener">Cafe De Coral Holdings (341 HK)</a> business in Hong Kong and China are recovering nicely due to the calming down of the COVID-19 as well as the strategy change to focus on the delivery and take away markets. One of the key initiatives is to redesign the menu offering so that it is more suitable for the delivery and take away customers. However, empirical evidence tells that the company is yet to reach a popular status in one of the food delivery apps in Hong Kong which is quite worrying. </p>
<p>The recent dining restrictions do not seem to bother investors much at all therefore there is still an opportunity to <strong>short Cafe de Coral</strong> in the short run. </p>

Cafe De Coral Holdings (341 HK) business in Hong Kong and China are recovering nicely due to the calming down of the COVID-19 as well as the strategy change to focus on the delivery and take away markets. One of the key initiatives is to redesign the menu offering so that it is more suitable for the delivery and take away customers. However, empirical evidence tells that the company is yet to reach a popular status in one of the food delivery apps in Hong Kong which is quite worrying. 
The recent dining restrictions do not seem to bother investors much at all therefore there is still an opportunity to short Cafe de Coral in the short run. 

Cafe De Coral (341): Still Unfazed by the New Restriction

<p>After the amazing Q2 2020 performance, the Q3 result was less stellar compared as the pandemic has seemed to be under control but the recent increase in the outbreak means it is the right time to <strong>cover the shorts</strong> in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissin-foods-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26062:1" rel="noopener">Nissin Foods (1475 HK)</a> and go <strong>long</strong> with the assumption that the fear factor will kick in again that will create a panic buying and once again - stay at home during the pandemic. </p>
<p>For long-short investors - the long trade of Nissin Foods can be paired up with either a short in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mtr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13289:1" rel="noopener">MTR Corp (66 HK)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cafe-de-coral-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2568:1" rel="noopener">Cafe De Coral Holdings (341 HK)</a> , both of which trade at ludicrous valuation while maintaining a questionable performance in the next quarter if the lockdown in Hong Kong is going to be reinstated. </p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/172/900/original/image_63144037491605899958762.png?1605899960" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="172900"></figure>
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<p>source: Capital IQ</p>
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After the amazing Q2 2020 performance, the Q3 result was less stellar compared as the pandemic has seemed to be under control but the recent increase in the outbreak means it is the right time to cover the shorts in Nissin Foods (1475 HK) and go long with the assumption that the fear factor will kick in again that will create a panic buying and once again - stay at home during the pandemic. 
For long-short investors - the long trade of Nissin Foods can be paired up with either a short in MTR Corp (66 HK) or Cafe De Coral Holdings (341 HK) , both of which trade at ludicrous valuation while maintaining a questionable performance in the next quarter if the lockdown in Hong Kong is going to be reinstated. 


source: Capital IQ


Nissin Food (1475): HK COVID-19 - Reversal of WFH Vs Going Out

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> is uniquely positioned as a Thai company listed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1047:1" rel="noopener">SGX (SGX SP)</a> with an exposure to the reopening of tourism in Thailand. The Thai government has proposed to exempt Chinese tourists from the required 14-day quarantine by 2021 and replace that with an app or token to trace their whereabouts during their holiday in Thailand. With the positive vaccine announcement, this initiative will be rolled out sooner rather than later and possibly be expanded for other countries too which means the number of tourists in Thailand will soon resume to the almost pre-COVID-19 level. </p>
<p>At 16x PER, 2.8x PBR, and 13.4 EV/EBITDA, Thai Beverage is trading at a  <strong>63% PER discount, 76% PBR discount, and 36% EV/EBITDA discount </strong>to the regional brewery peers<strong> and a 65% PER discount, 53% PBR discount, and 50% EV/EBITDA discount to the </strong>other Thai tourism-related stocks. </p>

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) is uniquely positioned as a Thai company listed in SGX (SGX SP) with an exposure to the reopening of tourism in Thailand. The Thai government has proposed to exempt Chinese tourists from the required 14-day quarantine by 2021 and replace that with an app or token to trace their whereabouts during their holiday in Thailand. With the positive vaccine announcement, this initiative will be rolled out sooner rather than later and possibly be expanded for other countries too which means the number of tourists in Thailand will soon resume to the almost pre-COVID-19 level. 
At 16x PER, 2.8x PBR, and 13.4 EV/EBITDA, Thai Beverage is trading at a  63% PER discount, 76% PBR discount, and 36% EV/EBITDA discount to the regional brewery peers and a 65% PER discount, 53% PBR discount, and 50% EV/EBITDA discount to the other Thai tourism-related stocks. 

Thai Beverage (Thbev): Brewing for Reopening

Hong Kong

Cafe De Coral Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates quick service restaurants, fast casual dining, institutional catering and specialty restaurant chains, and food manufacturing business.

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Cafe De Coral Holdings (341 HK)

Nayuki Holdings IPO: Valuation First-Look

Nayuki is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 million, according to press reports. In this note, we take the first look at Nayuki's...

Arun George

HK Lockdown Ideas: Long Nissin Food and Short Cafe De Coral

The recent lockdown in HK proves that unless everyone is vaccinated, the risk remains. The HK SAR government does not rule out the possibility of...

Henry Soediarko

Cafe De Coral (341): Still Unfazed by the New Restriction

The recent dining restrictions do not seem to bother investors much at all therefore there is still an opportunity to short Cafe de Coral in the...

Henry Soediarko

Nissin Food (1475): HK COVID-19 - Reversal of WFH Vs Going Out

How severe it will get in Hong Kong and will the government re-instate the lockdown. It is time to go long Nissin food and start shorting MTR and...

Henry Soediarko

Thai Beverage (Thbev): Brewing for Reopening

Thai Beverage is uniquely positioned as a Thai company listed in Singapore with an exposure to the reopening of tourism in Thailand.

Henry Soediarko

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