Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>March and Q125 parcel volume growth slowed only slightly vs strong Q424 and FY24</li>
<li>Single-Digit unit price declines should be manageable for most of the express companies</li>
<li>But express "story" generally unexciting, and most shares should continue to lag Alibaba</li>
</ul>


March and Q125 parcel volume growth slowed only slightly vs strong Q424 and FY24
Single-Digit unit price declines should be manageable for most of the express companies
But express "story" generally unexciting, and most shares should continue to lag Alibaba


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March, Q125 Growth Solid | But Shares Lag Alibaba (April 2025)

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Crucial US "de minimis" imports exemption will end this Thursday night, May 1st</li>
<li>Beginning May 2nd, low-value direct-to-US consumer imports subject to duties, reporting </li>
<li>For US consumers, buying from SHEIN et al set to become more expensive, more onerous</li>
</ul>


Crucial US "de minimis" imports exemption will end this Thursday night, May 1st
Beginning May 2nd, low-value direct-to-US consumer imports subject to duties, reporting 
For US consumers, buying from SHEIN et al set to become more expensive, more onerous


May 1st Marks End of US "De Minimis" Exemption that Has Enabled Growth of SHEIN, Temu, & AliExpress

<ul>
<li>By some measures, combined Jan-Feb volume growth slowed vs recent trend growth rates</li>
<li>Volume leader ZTO rejoining volume share game in FY25, -ive implications for pricing?</li>
<li>With concerns about mainstream price growing, we continue to favor only SF Holding</li>
</ul>


By some measures, combined Jan-Feb volume growth slowed vs recent trend growth rates
Volume leader ZTO rejoining volume share game in FY25, -ive implications for pricing?
With concerns about mainstream price growing, we continue to favor only SF Holding


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volume, Price Trends | ZTO Rejoins Volume Game | (March 2025)

<ul>
<li>Investors had hoped to see tangible benefits of Taobao / Tmall access in Q424 results</li>
<li>But revenue growth acceleration was unimpressive, and core margins fell noticeably</li>
<li>We believe its disappointing Q424 numbers will result in near-term underperformance</li>
</ul>


Investors had hoped to see tangible benefits of Taobao / Tmall access in Q424 results
But revenue growth acceleration was unimpressive, and core margins fell noticeably
We believe its disappointing Q424 numbers will result in near-term underperformance


JD Logistics Q424 Earnings: Taobao / Tmall Access Fails to Generate Expected Benefits

<ul>
<li>Over the last 25 months, there's been a steady stream of bad news for DTC platform SHEIN</li>
<li>The latest challenges: US tariff chaos &amp; Amazon's launch of its competing platform, <em>Haul </em>
</li>
<li>Tariff changes &amp; growth of <em>Haul</em> could mean SHEIN IPO gets done at fraction of 2023 valuation</li>
</ul>


Over the last 25 months, there's been a steady stream of bad news for DTC platform SHEIN
The latest challenges: US tariff chaos &amp; Amazon's launch of its competing platform, Haul 

Tariff changes &amp; growth of Haul could mean SHEIN IPO gets done at fraction of 2023 valuation


It's Been a Tough Two+ Years for SHEIN & Its Investors, & Things Don't Get Easier From Here

Hong Kong

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network Ltd. operates as an investment company. The Company provides equity investments, investment management, and other services. Cainiao Smart Logistics Network is located in Hong Kong.

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network (1437124D HK)

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Cainiao Smart Logistics Network (1437124D HK)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March, Q125 Growth Solid | But Shares Lag Alibaba (April 2025)

In March and Q125, express volume growth remained firm, and unit price declines should be manageable for most express companies. But as an...

Tracking Traffic

May 1st Marks End of US "De Minimis" Exemption that Has Enabled Growth of SHEIN, Temu, & AliExpress

US "de minimis" import rules that have enabled the growth of platforms like SHEIN and Temu will change dramatically this week. We believe the...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volume, Price Trends | ZTO Rejoins Volume Game | (March 2025)

Combined January-February parcel volume growth moderated, but it's too early to say this is a departure from trend. We're now more concerned about...

Tracking Traffic

JD Logistics Q424 Earnings: Taobao / Tmall Access Fails to Generate Expected Benefits

JD Logistics' Q424 results showed no benefit from almost a full quarter's worth of access to Alibaba's Taobao / Tmall platforms. We believe...

Tracking Traffic

It's Been a Tough Two+ Years for SHEIN & Its Investors, & Things Don't Get Easier From Here

Over the past two+ years, SHEIN has faced a deluge of developments that threaten its future growth and profitability, especially in the US.

Tracking Traffic

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