Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

SHEIN Global Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Over the last 25 months, there's been a steady stream of bad news for DTC platform SHEIN</li>
<li>The latest challenges: US tariff chaos &amp; Amazon's launch of its competing platform, <em>Haul </em>
</li>
<li>Tariff changes &amp; growth of <em>Haul</em> could mean SHEIN IPO gets done at fraction of 2023 valuation</li>
</ul>


Over the last 25 months, there's been a steady stream of bad news for DTC platform SHEIN
The latest challenges: US tariff chaos &amp; Amazon's launch of its competing platform, Haul 

Tariff changes &amp; growth of Haul could mean SHEIN IPO gets done at fraction of 2023 valuation


It's Been a Tough Two+ Years for SHEIN & Its Investors, & Things Don't Get Easier From Here

<ul>
<li>Crucial US "de minimis" imports exemption will end this Thursday night, May 1st</li>
<li>Beginning May 2nd, low-value direct-to-US consumer imports subject to duties, reporting </li>
<li>For US consumers, buying from SHEIN et al set to become more expensive, more onerous</li>
</ul>


Crucial US "de minimis" imports exemption will end this Thursday night, May 1st
Beginning May 2nd, low-value direct-to-US consumer imports subject to duties, reporting 
For US consumers, buying from SHEIN et al set to become more expensive, more onerous


May 1st Marks End of US "De Minimis" Exemption that Has Enabled Growth of SHEIN, Temu, & AliExpress

<ul>
<li>SHEIN's US sellers will be able to use Amazon for US fulfillment by end of 2025</li>
<li>SHEIN will open up its Chinese manufacturing capabilities to outside brands</li>
<li>Changes are in response to lost "de minimis" loophole, search for growth drivers</li>
</ul>


SHEIN's US sellers will be able to use Amazon for US fulfillment by end of 2025
SHEIN will open up its Chinese manufacturing capabilities to outside brands
Changes are in response to lost "de minimis" loophole, search for growth drivers


Two Big Changes to SHEIN's Business Model in Response to the End of US "De Minimis" Exemption

<ul>
<li>SHEIN has received formal permission from China's CSRC to list its shares in Hong Kong</li>
<li>The IPO could value SHEIN at US$40-50B per reports, about half of its valuation in 2022</li>
<li>Also: Temu fined 200M Euros for unsafe goods | New EU fee on cheap Chinese imports</li>
</ul>


SHEIN has received formal permission from China's CSRC to list its shares in Hong Kong
The IPO could value SHEIN at US$40-50B per reports, about half of its valuation in 2022
Also: Temu fined 200M Euros for unsafe goods | New EU fee on cheap Chinese imports


SHEIN Gets CSRC's OK for HK IPO | Temu Fined 200M Euros | New EU Fee Could Sharply Raise Costs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Parcel volume growth in April slowed to just 2-3% for the four China-listed express firms</li>
<li>This is a noticeable softening of the pace of growth seen in March and Q126 (around 7%)</li>
<li>It suggests that mainstream Chinese e-Commerce activity in early Q226 has slowed</li>
</ul>


Parcel volume growth in April slowed to just 2-3% for the four China-listed express firms
This is a noticeable softening of the pace of growth seen in March and Q126 (around 7%)
It suggests that mainstream Chinese e-Commerce activity in early Q226 has slowed


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | April Volume Growth Just 2-3% Vs 7% in March/Q126 | EComm Softer?

Hong Kong

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network Ltd. operates as an investment company. The Company provides equity investments, investment management, and other services. Cainiao Smart Logistics Network is located in Hong Kong.

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network (1437124D HK)

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Cainiao Smart Logistics Network (1437124D HK)

It's Been a Tough Two+ Years for SHEIN & Its Investors, & Things Don't Get Easier From Here

Now that fast-fashion giant SHEIN has finally filed offering documents in Hong Kong, we believe it's a good time to revisit the company's recent...

Tracking Traffic

May 1st Marks End of US "De Minimis" Exemption that Has Enabled Growth of SHEIN, Temu, & AliExpress

Now that fast-fashion giant SHEIN has finally filed offering documents in Hong Kong (July 27), we believe it's a good time to revisit the company's...

Tracking Traffic

Two Big Changes to SHEIN's Business Model in Response to the End of US "De Minimis" Exemption

Now that fast-fashion giant SHEIN has finally filed offering documents in Hong Kong (July 27), we believe it's a good time to revisit the company's...

Tracking Traffic

SHEIN Gets CSRC's OK for HK IPO | Temu Fined 200M Euros | New EU Fee Could Sharply Raise Costs

In this insight we highlight important news items affecting major players in China's direct-to-consumer eComm segment (SHEIN, Temu, AliExpress).

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | April Volume Growth Just 2-3% Vs 7% in March/Q126 | EComm Softer?

In April, China-listed express companies reported slower parcel volume growth of just 2-3% versus the 7% pace of growth from March and Q126. This...

Tracking Traffic

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