Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average / Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

<ul>
<li>We still believe it's possible we've seen the lows for this pause/pullback on the SPX, and we see low probability of meaningful correction if SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support).</li>
<li>As initially discussed in our 8/29/23 Compass, we wouldn't be surprised to see another month+ (i.e., through the end of September, and possibly longer) of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.</li>
<li>Downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight due to 1.5+ year RS uptrend violation. Buys highlighted in Uranium and Energy (refiners and coal).</li>
</ul>


We still believe it's possible we've seen the lows for this pause/pullback on the SPX, and we see low probability of meaningful correction if SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support).
As initially discussed in our 8/29/23 Compass, we wouldn't be surprised to see another month+ (i.e., through the end of September, and possibly longer) of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.
Downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight due to 1.5+ year RS uptrend violation. Buys highlighted in Uranium and Energy (refiners and coal).


Downgrading Industrials to Market Weight; Major Supports Holding; Buys in Uranium and Refiners

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

Calumet Specialty Products Par / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Renewable energy surpassed coal as the world’s top electricity source in 1H25, with renewables supplying 34.3% of global electricity versus 33.1% for coal.</li><li>This milestone was driven by rapid expansion in China and India.</li><li>Meanwhile, in the US, renewable capacity is projected to more than double by 2033, supported by strong policies.</li><li>The US EV market faces a short-term slowdown due to subsidy expiration but remains on track long term.</li></ul>

Renewable energy surpassed coal as the world’s top electricity source in 1H25, with renewables supplying 34.3% of global electricity versus 33.1% for coal.This milestone was driven by rapid expansion in China and India.Meanwhile, in the US, renewable capacity is projected to more than double by 2033, supported by strong policies.The US EV market faces a short-term slowdown due to subsidy expiration but remains on track long term.

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Montana Renewables (Calumet [CLMT]) - October 13, 2025

<ul><li>On the latest WTR Small-Cap Spotlight, we were joined by Bruce Fleming, Chief Executive Officer of Montana Renewables and our host, Tim Gerdeman, WTR’s Vice- Chair &amp; Co-Founder, and Chief Marketing Officer.</li><li>Montana Renewables (MR) is an unrestricted subsidiary (private JV) of Calumet (NASDAQ: CLMT) and the first large-scale sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) producer in the US.</li><li>Fleming described MR as Montana’s largest agricultural investment. </li></ul>

On the latest WTR Small-Cap Spotlight, we were joined by Bruce Fleming, Chief Executive Officer of Montana Renewables and our host, Tim Gerdeman, WTR’s Vice- Chair &amp; Co-Founder, and Chief Marketing Officer.Montana Renewables (MR) is an unrestricted subsidiary (private JV) of Calumet (NASDAQ: CLMT) and the first large-scale sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) producer in the US.Fleming described MR as Montana’s largest agricultural investment. 

(CLMT) Montana Renewables CEO on First-Mover Advantages and Coming SAF Supply Squeeze

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index was down 3.1% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 2.6%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.5%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 2.4%).</li><li>Energy Technology (12.4% of the index) was down 5.3%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.7% of the index) was down 2.4%, ClimateTech Mining was down 2.6%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.5% of the index) was down 3.7%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: LTBR, NHHH, BNET, FTEK, SX, FCEL, VVPR, EGT, DNMR, TMC</li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 3.1% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 2.6%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.5%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 2.4%).Energy Technology (12.4% of the index) was down 5.3%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.7% of the index) was down 2.4%, ClimateTech Mining was down 2.6%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.5% of the index) was down 3.7%.Top 10 Performers: LTBR, NHHH, BNET, FTEK, SX, FCEL, VVPR, EGT, DNMR, TMC

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Calumet (CLMT)

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

<ul><li>Calumet received a $1.44 billion conditional loan guarantee from the DOE for its MRL renewable fuel facility</li><li>Market has not fully recognized the potential value of this announcement</li><li>Analysts predict CLMT shares could triple to $60+ by mid-2025 due to upcoming events and potential monetization opportunities</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Calumet received a $1.44 billion conditional loan guarantee from the DOE for its MRL renewable fuel facilityMarket has not fully recognized the potential value of this announcementAnalysts predict CLMT shares could triple to $60+ by mid-2025 due to upcoming events and potential monetization opportunitiesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Calumet Inc (CLMT) - Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024

United States

Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. produces specialty hydrocarbon products for domestic and international customers.  The Company processes crude oil into a variety of customized lubricating oils, solvents, and waxes.  Calumet also processes crude oil into a variety of fuel and fuel-related products, including unleaded gasoline, diesel fuel, and jet fuel.

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Calumet Specialty Products Par (CLMT US)

Downgrading Industrials to Market Weight; Major Supports Holding; Buys in Uranium and Refiners

Downgrading Industrials/Manufacturing $XLI to market weight. Still see low probability of a meaningful correction if the $SPX is above 4300-4325....

Vermilion Research

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Montana Renewables (Calumet [CLMT]) - October 13, 2025

Renewable energy surpassed coal as the world’s top electricity source in 1H25, with renewables supplying 34.3% of global electricity versus 33.1%...

Water Tower Research

(CLMT) Montana Renewables CEO on First-Mover Advantages and Coming SAF Supply Squeeze

Montana Renewables (MR) is an unrestricted subsidiary (private JV) of Calumet (NASDAQ: CLMT) and the first large-scale sustainable aviation fuel...

Water Tower Research

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Calumet (CLMT)

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 3.1% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 2.6%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.5%), and the Nasdaq Index (down...

Water Tower Research

Calumet Inc (CLMT) - Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024

Calumet received a $1.44 billion conditional loan guarantee from the DOE for its MRL renewable fuel facility. Market has not fully recognized the...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

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