Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Hainan Jinpan Smart Technology / Index Rebalance

Hainan Jinpan Smart Technology (688676 CH)

<ul>
<li>The review period for the June rebalance ends 30 April. We expect the changes to be announced 31 May with the implementation taking place after the close on 14 June.</li>
<li>We forecast 10 changes for the index, including migrations between the STAR 100 Index and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>Excluding the migrations, the potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last few months and that could continue as we head to the end of the review period.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the June rebalance ends 30 April. We expect the changes to be announced 31 May with the implementation taking place after the close on 14 June.
We forecast 10 changes for the index, including migrations between the STAR 100 Index and the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX). 
Excluding the migrations, the potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last few months and that could continue as we head to the end of the review period.


STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: 10 Changes as Potential Adds Outperform

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We would see CanSino’s performance pick up obviously in 2024 - Revenue of meningococcal vaccines would up about 50% YoY. Both R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses would show a declining trend.</li>
<li>Starting from 2025, CanSino’s product matrix will become more diverse.Its financial performance will enter a virtuous cycle. Revenue in 2025 may exceed expectations, depending on the approval time of PCV13i.</li>
<li>CanSino is one of the few domestic vaccine companies that has ability to explore the international market. Mispricing/expectation differences in the market will give investors the opportunity for excess returns.</li>
</ul>


We would see CanSino’s performance pick up obviously in 2024 - Revenue of meningococcal vaccines would up about 50% YoY. Both R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses would show a declining trend.
Starting from 2025, CanSino’s product matrix will become more diverse.Its financial performance will enter a virtuous cycle. Revenue in 2025 may exceed expectations, depending on the approval time of PCV13i.
CanSino is one of the few domestic vaccine companies that has ability to explore the international market. Mispricing/expectation differences in the market will give investors the opportunity for excess returns.


CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) - 2024 Is the Best Time to Bottom-Fish This Stock

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>In 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cansino-biologics-inc-cc0c90b7-e854-4ba3-929b-914be1bd0d89" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32181:1" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics (688185 CH)</a> generated revenue of RMB561.7 million from the sales of meningococcal conjugate vaccines, up 266% YoY.</li>
<li>This year, consensus is expecting CanSino to report revenue of RMB858 million, up whopping 140% YoY, mainly driven by meningococcal vaccines.</li>
<li>CanSino is expected to add pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) vaccine in its revenue stream in 2025. The company’s PCV13i is a potential best-in-class improved PCV13.</li>
</ul>


In 2023, CanSino Biologics (688185 CH) generated revenue of RMB561.7 million from the sales of meningococcal conjugate vaccines, up 266% YoY.
This year, consensus is expecting CanSino to report revenue of RMB858 million, up whopping 140% YoY, mainly driven by meningococcal vaccines.
CanSino is expected to add pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) vaccine in its revenue stream in 2025. The company’s PCV13i is a potential best-in-class improved PCV13.


CanSino Biologics (688185 CH): Limited Downside Is Seen; Meningococcal Vaccines to Drive Growth

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 123.4% as of Apr 12th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -9.4ppt week-on-week, led by health care, utilities, information technology and offset by consumer staples.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for GWM, Beigene, Cansino, First Tractor.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 123.4% as of Apr 12th.
The average A-H premium changed by -9.4ppt week-on-week, led by health care, utilities, information technology and offset by consumer staples.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for GWM, Beigene, Cansino, First Tractor.


A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 12th): GWM, Beigene, Cansino, First Tractor

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 127.6% as of Mar 29th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 3.0ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, energy, materials and offset by real estate, information technology, health care.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Baiyunshan, Jiangxi Copper, ZTE, Tigermed, Cansino Biologics.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 127.6% as of Mar 29th.
The average A-H premium changed by 3.0ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, energy, materials and offset by real estate, information technology, health care.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Baiyunshan, Jiangxi Copper, ZTE, Tigermed, Cansino Biologics.


A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 29th): Baiyunshan, Jiangxi Copper, ZTE, Tigermed, Cansino Biologics

China

CanSino Biologics Inc. develops and manufactures biological vaccine products. The Company discovers quadrivalence meningococcal conjugate, pneumococcal polysaccharide, and adenovirus vector-based tuberculosis vaccines for human use. CanSino Biologics serves customers worldwide.

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CanSino Biologics (688185 CH)

STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: 10 Changes as Potential Adds Outperform

Excluding the migrations to/from the STAR50 Index, there has been strong outperformance over the recent past and that could continue for the next...

Brian Freitas

CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) - 2024 Is the Best Time to Bottom-Fish This Stock

CanSino's performance set to pick up in 2024. Diverse product matrix may bring higher-than-expected revenue in 2025. Investors will earn excess...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang