HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We summarized the varieties that would miss 2024 NRDL negotiation and have to wait until 2026 to enter medical insurance coverage. This however means competing products would have more advantages.</li>
<li>As the NRDL negotiation becomes more transparent/reasonable, there will be a balance point among companies’ profits, patient affordability and medical insurance budget. So, there's no need to be overly pessimistic.</li>
<li>The approval process of CanSino’s PCV13i could be faster than expected. 2024 is the best time to bottom-fish this stock. Reasonable market value is at least RMB5 billion.</li>
</ul>


We summarized the varieties that would miss 2024 NRDL negotiation and have to wait until 2026 to enter medical insurance coverage. This however means competing products would have more advantages.
As the NRDL negotiation becomes more transparent/reasonable, there will be a balance point among companies’ profits, patient affordability and medical insurance budget. So, there's no need to be overly pessimistic.
The approval process of CanSino’s PCV13i could be faster than expected. 2024 is the best time to bottom-fish this stock. Reasonable market value is at least RMB5 billion.


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.11) - 2024 NRDL Negotiation, China Biotech Outlook, Bottom Fish CanSino

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see 37 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 25 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September.</li>
<li>We expect 32 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 24 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 37 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 25 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September.
We expect 32 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 24 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>BIG Net SOUTHBOUND inflow continues. Notable in the past four weeks are US$1.9bn of net flow to Energy Hs and US$2.2bn to Banks in the H side of H/A Pairs.</li>
<li>AH Premia lowish in 52-week range, but still high for many pairs. I continue to expect further "convergence" among spreads, and the recent HA Premium bounce has lost momentum.</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
BIG Net SOUTHBOUND inflow continues. Notable in the past four weeks are US$1.9bn of net flow to Energy Hs and US$2.2bn to Banks in the H side of H/A Pairs.
AH Premia lowish in 52-week range, but still high for many pairs. I continue to expect further "convergence" among spreads, and the recent HA Premium bounce has lost momentum.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 21 Jun 2024):  AH Premia Stabilising Lower, Can Move A Leg Lower Still

<ul>
<li>Due to increasing competition/price reduction/overcapacity issue, outlook of domestic vaccine companies isn't optimistic, which has been reflected in 24Q1 results. However, there’s also a "special one" that deserves investors' attention.</li>
<li>The status of medical insurance funds is improving rather than deteriorating, but we’re currently in the first half of the decade with the highest pressure on medical insurance.</li>
<li>As the H.R.8333 proposal faced obstacles in the process of being included in NDAA, WuXi AppTec/WuXi Bio’s shares once rebounded.We remain conservative as situation is not as simple as imagined.</li>
</ul>


Due to increasing competition/price reduction/overcapacity issue, outlook of domestic vaccine companies isn't optimistic, which has been reflected in 24Q1 results. However, there’s also a "special one" that deserves investors' attention.
The status of medical insurance funds is improving rather than deteriorating, but we’re currently in the first half of the decade with the highest pressure on medical insurance.
As the H.R.8333 proposal faced obstacles in the process of being included in NDAA, WuXi AppTec/WuXi Bio’s shares once rebounded.We remain conservative as situation is not as simple as imagined.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun16)-WuXi Get A "Reprieve", Vaccine Company in Trouble, Insurance Surplus

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 105.3% as of Jun 14th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 1.6ppt week-on-week, led by consumer discretionary, information technology, financials and offset by consumer staples, utilities, real estate.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for  China Tourism, CGN Power, Huadian Power, Hua Hong Semi, Huaneng Power.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 105.3% as of Jun 14th.
The average A-H premium changed by 1.6ppt week-on-week, led by consumer discretionary, information technology, financials and offset by consumer staples, utilities, real estate.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for  China Tourism, CGN Power, Huadian Power, Hua Hong Semi, Huaneng Power.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 14th): China Tourism, CGN Power, Huadian Power, Hua Hong Semi, Huaneng Power

China

CanSino Biologics is a biopharmaceutical company specializing in the research, development, manufacturing, and commercialization of innovative vaccine products for human use, primarily focusing on infectious diseases. Its product portfolio includes vaccines for meningitis, pneumonia, pertussis, diphtheria, tetanus, COVID-19, tuberculosis, shingles, and Ebola virus disease. The company was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Tianjin, China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

CanSino Biologics (6185 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.11) - 2024 NRDL Negotiation, China Biotech Outlook, Bottom Fish CanSino

Some drugs won't be covered by insurance until 2026, giving competitors an edge. As NRDL negotiation is transparent, no need to be pessimistic on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

There could be nearly 80 adds/deletes for the HSCI in September. That will trigger changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and increase flows...

Brian Freitas

A/H Premium Tracker (To 21 Jun 2024): AH Premia Stabilising Lower, Can Move A Leg Lower Still

The Quiddity AH Monitor shows that while AH Premia have spent weeks "bouncing" off multi-year lows, the rebound impetus is slowing. There's room...

Travis Lundy

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun16)-WuXi Get A "Reprieve", Vaccine Company in Trouble, Insurance Surplus

Outlook for domestic vaccine companies is bleak, but one standout. Medical insurance status is improving. WuXi AppTec/WuXi Bio shares rebounded as...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 14th): China Tourism, CGN Power, Huadian Power, Hua Hong Semi, Huaneng Power

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Tourism, CGN Power, Huadian Power, Hua Hong Semi,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.11) - 2024 NRDL Negotiation, China Biotech Outlook, Bottom Fish CanSino

​Some drugs won't be covered by insurance until 2026, giving competitors an edge. As NRDL negotiation is transparent, no need to be pessimistic on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

There could be nearly 80 adds/deletes for the HSCI in September. That will trigger changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and increase flows...

Brian Freitas

A/H Premium Tracker (To 21 Jun 2024): AH Premia Stabilising Lower, Can Move A Leg Lower Still

The Quiddity AH Monitor shows that while AH Premia have spent weeks "bouncing" off multi-year lows, the rebound impetus is slowing. There's room...

Travis Lundy

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun16)-WuXi Get A "Reprieve", Vaccine Company in Trouble, Insurance Surplus

​Outlook for domestic vaccine companies is bleak, but one standout. Medical insurance status is improving. WuXi AppTec/WuXi Bio shares rebounded as...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 14th): China Tourism, CGN Power, Huadian Power, Hua Hong Semi, Huaneng Power

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Tourism, CGN Power, Huadian Power, Hua Hong Semi,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Some drugs won't be covered by insurance until 2026, giving competitors an edge. As NRDL negotiation is transparent, no need to be pessimistic on...

Outlook for domestic vaccine companies is bleak, but one standout. Medical insurance status is improving. WuXi AppTec/WuXi Bio shares rebounded as...