Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 24 adds and 22 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 504.</li>
<li>We expect 20 of the 24 HSCI inclusions to be Stock Connect adds from the open on 8 September. 19 of the 22 deletions could be removed from Stock Connect.</li>
<li>On average, stocks that are expected to be added to Southbound Stock Connect have outperformed stocks that are expected to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
</ul>


There are 24 adds and 22 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 504.
We expect 20 of the 24 HSCI inclusions to be Stock Connect adds from the open on 8 September. 19 of the 22 deletions could be removed from Stock Connect.
On average, stocks that are expected to be added to Southbound Stock Connect have outperformed stocks that are expected to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 24 Adds, 22 Deletes, Changes to Southbound Stock Connect & BIG Outperformance

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Cao Cao is a ride hailing platform in China that raised US$236m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>As of 2024, it held a 5.4% market share as per Frost &amp; Sullivan.</li>
<li>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Cao Cao is a ride hailing platform in China that raised US$236m in its Hong Kong IPO.
As of 2024, it held a 5.4% market share as per Frost &amp; Sullivan.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.


Cao Cao IPO Trading: Weak Institutional Demand; Clawback Triggered

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Chinese ride-hailing platform CaoCao plans to issue 44.2m shares at the HKEx IPO at an indicative price of HK$41.9/share, and raise net proceeds of US$219m at a valuation of HK$28.9bn.</li>
<li>CaoCao’s earnings have seen strong growth during the last 2-3 years, however, much of this growth is driven through debt financing which has resulted in a highly geared balance sheet.</li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caocao-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42803:1" rel="noopener">CaoCao (2643 HK)</a> 's IPO is overvalued at the indicative IPO price and we would recommend staying on the sidelines.</li>
</ul>


Chinese ride-hailing platform CaoCao plans to issue 44.2m shares at the HKEx IPO at an indicative price of HK$41.9/share, and raise net proceeds of US$219m at a valuation of HK$28.9bn.
CaoCao’s earnings have seen strong growth during the last 2-3 years, however, much of this growth is driven through debt financing which has resulted in a highly geared balance sheet.
Our valuation analysis suggests that CaoCao (2643 HK) 's IPO is overvalued at the indicative IPO price and we would recommend staying on the sidelines.


<ul>
<li>Backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caocao-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42803:1" rel="noopener">CaoCao (2643 HK)</a> is a ride-hailing platform operating in China and has filed for an IPO on the HKEx to raise around US$237m.</li>
<li>The company’s revenues have seen significant growth with expanding into new cities, while it has managed to generated gross margins and reduce operating losses.</li>
<li>However, CaoCao’s balance sheet is highly leveraged with borrowings accounting for 1.77x of total assets and in dire need of cash to grow its business and repay debt.</li>
</ul>


Backed by Geely Auto (175 HK) , CaoCao (2643 HK) is a ride-hailing platform operating in China and has filed for an IPO on the HKEx to raise around US$237m.
The company’s revenues have seen significant growth with expanding into new cities, while it has managed to generated gross margins and reduce operating losses.
However, CaoCao’s balance sheet is highly leveraged with borrowings accounting for 1.77x of total assets and in dire need of cash to grow its business and repay debt.


CaoCao IPO: Improving Financials but In Need of Cash

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caocao-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42803:1" rel="noopener">CaoCao (2643 HK)</a> has launched its IPO to raise US$236 million at HK$41.94 per share. The shares will be listed on 25 June.</li>
<li>I previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/caocao-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:189909" rel="noopener">CaoCao IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/caocao-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:190152" rel="noopener">CaoCao IPO: The Bear Case</a>. </li>
<li>In this note, I present my forecasts and discuss valuation. My analysis suggests that CaoCao is at best fairly valued at the offer price. Therefore, avoid the IPO.</li>
</ul>



CaoCao (2643 HK) has launched its IPO to raise US$236 million at HK$41.94 per share. The shares will be listed on 25 June.
I previously discussed the IPO in CaoCao IPO: The Bull Case and CaoCao IPO: The Bear Case. 
In this note, I present my forecasts and discuss valuation. My analysis suggests that CaoCao is at best fairly valued at the offer price. Therefore, avoid the IPO.


China

CaoCao Inc. develops and manages an online car hailing service platform. The Company provides personal car hailing, group car hailing, reserved car hailing, safe car hailing, airport pick up and drop off, half day rental, and other services. CaoCao also offers autonomous driving technology development services.

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CaoCao (2643 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance: 24 Adds, 22 Deletes, Changes to Southbound Stock Connect & BIG Outperformance

There are 24 adds and 22 deletes for the HSCI in Sep. 20 stocks could be added to Stock Connect and 19 removed. The Connect adds have outperformed...

Brian Freitas

Cao Cao IPO Trading: Weak Institutional Demand; Clawback Triggered

Cao Cao raised US$236m in its Hong Kong IPO. We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the...

Nicholas Tan

CaoCao IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

CaoCao will debut on he HKEx today offering 44.2m shares at a final IPO price of HK$41.9 per share. The HK offering is oversubscribed by 21.1x...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

CaoCao IPO: Improving Financials but In Need of Cash

CaoCao plans to raise US$237m through HKEx IPO. The company's earnings have seen strong improvement during the last 2-years, however, debt-to-total...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

CaoCao IPO (2643 HK): Valuation Insights

In this note, I present my forecasts and discuss valuation. My analysis suggests that CaoCao is at best fairly valued at the offer price....

Arun George

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