Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Nintendo blew the doors off with OP of ¥352.4bn vs. consensus at ¥314.9bn. Revenue of ¥1,308.5bn was also above consensus at ¥1,273bn, but by a smaller margin, showing the magnitude of the profitability improvements that we have been flagging as a key driver for the stock. Guidance of ¥300bn in OP for next FY looks conservative, and to us so does consensus at ¥369bn. Below we examine exactly how much upside may remain, but in short, it is not too late to buy.

Nintendo blew the doors off with OP of ¥352.4bn vs. consensus at ¥314.9bn. Revenue of ¥1,308.5bn was also above consensus at ¥1,273bn, but by a smaller margin, showing the magnitude of the profitability improvements that we have been flagging as a key driver for the stock. Guidance of ¥300bn in OP for next FY looks conservative, and to us so does consensus at ¥369bn. Below we examine exactly how much upside may remain, but in short, it is not too late to buy.

Nintendo – Deftly Animal Crossing Over the COVID Trap

Reviews of RE3 are broadly positive but not quite to the extent of RE2 which sold so well. However, game sales volumes in a franchise can often lag game quality so the question is whether this is affecting sales and profitability for Capcom. We analyse these points below.

Reviews of RE3 are broadly positive but not quite to the extent of RE2 which sold so well. However, game sales volumes in a franchise can often lag game quality so the question is whether this is affecting sales and profitability for Capcom. We analyse these points below.

Capcom – Tracking the Remake of RE3 Vs. RE2 and a Likely Beat

Event-Driven

Since the 17th of March we have published several notes regarding skews in performance between names that have heavy weights in TOPIX vs. those with heavy weights in the Nikkei. While it has required some very nimble trading the alpha generation if you were on the right side of the trades has been exceptionally good. We summarise the performance of the names we have highlighted and our thoughts on when to close out these trades below.

Since the 17th of March we have published several notes regarding skews in performance between names that have heavy weights in TOPIX vs. those with heavy weights in the Nikkei. While it has required some very nimble trading the alpha generation if you were on the right side of the trades has been exceptionally good. We summarise the performance of the names we have highlighted and our thoughts on when to close out these trades below.

Taking Stock of the Almost Excessive Alpha Generation From TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trades

On Thursday we highlighted a number of stock pairs that had seen extreme levels of relative performance dislocations, speculating that this was due to relative value unwinds that were being rushed for completion prior to the long weekend. This morning the skews are reversing and with Nikkei now outperforming Topix (+02.7% vs. -0.87% at the time of this writing) we believe this opportunity is being realised quickly. Our thoughts on next steps below.

On Thursday we highlighted a number of stock pairs that had seen extreme levels of relative performance dislocations, speculating that this was due to relative value unwinds that were being rushed for completion prior to the long weekend. This morning the skews are reversing and with Nikkei now outperforming Topix (+02.7% vs. -0.87% at the time of this writing) we believe this opportunity is being realised quickly. Our thoughts on next steps below.

Japan Long Weekend Portfolio Blowout Theme Is Working Quickly

We previously highlighted the strong skew between names which have a heavy weighting in Topix vs. those which have a heavy weighting in the Nikkei. Given extreme looking skews even in individual names it does not seem unreasonable that some relative value fund(s) are exiting positions aggressively prior to what could be a key long weekend for Japan with potentially heavy volatility on Monday. We examine some striking performance discrepancies below.

We previously highlighted the strong skew between names which have a heavy weighting in Topix vs. those which have a heavy weighting in the Nikkei. Given extreme looking skews even in individual names it does not seem unreasonable that some relative value fund(s) are exiting positions aggressively prior to what could be a key long weekend for Japan with potentially heavy volatility on Monday. We examine some striking performance discrepancies below.

What Is Getting Blown Out of Portfolios Before the Long Weekend in Japan?

Japan

CAPCOM CO., LTD. develops consumer video game software.  The Company also develops, manufactures, markets, and leases arcade game machines.  Capcom also operates amusement facilities.

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Capcom Co Ltd (9697 JP)

Nintendo – Deftly Animal Crossing Over the COVID Trap

Nintendo blew the doors off with OP of ¥352.4bn vs. consensus at ¥314.9bn. Revenue of ¥1,308.5bn was also above consensus at ¥1,273bn, but by a...

Mio Kato

Capcom – Tracking the Remake of RE3 Vs. RE2 and a Likely Beat

Reviews of RE3 are broadly positive but not quite to the extent of RE2 which sold so well. However, game sales volumes in a franchise can often lag...

Mio Kato

Taking Stock of the Almost Excessive Alpha Generation From TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trades

Since the 17th of March we have published several notes regarding skews in performance between names that have heavy weights in TOPIX vs. those...

Mio Kato

Japan Long Weekend Portfolio Blowout Theme Is Working Quickly

On Thursday we highlighted a number of stock pairs that had seen extreme levels of relative performance dislocations, speculating that this was due...

Mio Kato

What Is Getting Blown Out of Portfolios Before the Long Weekend in Japan?

We previously highlighted the strong skew between names which have a heavy weighting in Topix vs. those which have a heavy weighting in the Nikkei....

Mio Kato

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)