Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US banks HFD in Fed H8 weekly release suggests strong income for US banks</li>
<li>LLR stagnating weekly basis for a long time, suggesting little incremental credit costs</li>
<li>LDR also expanding, with low growth of high costs deposits, 2Q25 profit can be strong</li>
</ul>


US banks HFD in Fed H8 weekly release suggests strong income for US banks
LLR stagnating weekly basis for a long time, suggesting little incremental credit costs
LDR also expanding, with low growth of high costs deposits, 2Q25 profit can be strong


US Banks - Loan Loss Reserves Stagnating On Weekly Basis, Indicator of Benign Credit Metrics

<ul>
<li>Strong weekly data from the CP market and from granular loan data of US banks</li>
<li>C&amp;I type lending is also included in the CP market and other loans to FI's</li>
<li>Loans to other FI's is up 21% YoY and C&amp;I lending, reached a new high since early FY24</li>
</ul>


Strong weekly data from the CP market and from granular loan data of US banks
C&amp;I type lending is also included in the CP market and other loans to FI's
Loans to other FI's is up 21% YoY and C&amp;I lending, reached a new high since early FY24


US Banks - Granular Weekly Data Suggest C&I Is Robust, Underlying Economy, Credit Metrics

<ul>
<li>Commercial paper outstanding in the US issued by non-financials is at its highest levels in the most recent week, since at least early FY23</li>
<li>The growth rate of CP outstanding in the US, from companies that make stuff, not banks, is growing at 10% YoY</li>
<li>This is another indicator of relatively strong underlying economics in the US, like what we see with HFD for US banks with C&amp;I and Other Loans To Non FI's</li>
</ul>


Commercial paper outstanding in the US issued by non-financials is at its highest levels in the most recent week, since at least early FY23
The growth rate of CP outstanding in the US, from companies that make stuff, not banks, is growing at 10% YoY
This is another indicator of relatively strong underlying economics in the US, like what we see with HFD for US banks with C&amp;I and Other Loans To Non FI's


US Banks & Economy - Commercial Paper Outstanding in Recent Week, Is Highest of Any Week in Series

<ul>
<li>In the last week of April, US banks saw USD22bn higher 'loans to non-depository financial institutions. Much of this will be C&amp;I through private credit. </li>
<li>Total cash holdings moved down in the same week from USD3,240bn to USD3,072bn, marking a significant delta in risk aversion - toward risk, not away.</li>
<li>Deposits are still high at USD18,058bn which can move back into markets, where non-large time deposits appear to be doing this, over month of April</li>
</ul>


In the last week of April, US banks saw USD22bn higher 'loans to non-depository financial institutions. Much of this will be C&amp;I through private credit. 
Total cash holdings moved down in the same week from USD3,240bn to USD3,072bn, marking a significant delta in risk aversion - toward risk, not away.
Deposits are still high at USD18,058bn which can move back into markets, where non-large time deposits appear to be doing this, over month of April


US Banks - Last Week of April Saw $22bn Loan Rise, With Cash Down $168bn

<ul>
<li>The most recent Fed Financial Stability Report released on 25 April shows that Other Lending to FI's for banks includes Private Credit </li>
<li>This means that the C&amp;I loan category of banks is partly diluted, where banks are providing this lending via private lenders </li>
<li>The implications are highly positive to the understanding of underlying credit demand, economic strength, and bank health</li>
</ul>


The most recent Fed Financial Stability Report released on 25 April shows that Other Lending to FI's for banks includes Private Credit 
This means that the C&amp;I loan category of banks is partly diluted, where banks are providing this lending via private lenders 
The implications are highly positive to the understanding of underlying credit demand, economic strength, and bank health


US Banks - Granular Data in Fed Report, Shows Private Credit Growth Is Strong

United States

Capital One Financial Corporation is a diversified bank. The Bank, through its subsidiaries, offers a broad spectrum of financial products and services to consumers, small businesses and commercial clients both domestically and internationally.  Capital One has bank locations in Connecticut, Louisiana, New Jersey, New York, and Texas.

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Capital One Financial (COF US)

US Banks - Loan Loss Reserves Stagnating On Weekly Basis, Indicator of Benign Credit Metrics

Weekly data from Fed shows bank's loan loss reserves continue their stagnation, suggesting limited incremental credit costs, suggesting benign...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Granular Weekly Data Suggest C&I Is Robust, Underlying Economy, Credit Metrics

There is good new high-frequency data from US banks and the Commercial Paper market suggesting a strong underlying economy for core C&I credit.

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks & Economy - Commercial Paper Outstanding in Recent Week, Is Highest of Any Week in Series

US commercial paper outstanding issued by non-financials is at highest level in most recent week since Fed's time series, growth is 10% YoY, this...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Last Week of April Saw $22bn Loan Rise, With Cash Down $168bn

Weekly data from US banks shows very strong rise in loans to other FIs and an exceptionally strong decline in total cash assets. View this...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Granular Data in Fed Report, Shows Private Credit Growth Is Strong

There is granular data from Fed showing that loans to nonbank FI's will include CLOs and private credit. This means that C&I lending is stronger...

Daniel Tabbush

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