Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and seven sectors persist.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and seven sectors persist.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (28 Dec)

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

Clarity Pharmaceuticals Ltd / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two changes for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and seven changes for ASX 200.</li>
<li>The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th December 2025.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two changes for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and seven changes for ASX 200.
The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th December 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec25: Reference Period Ending Soon; Some Surprises Possible

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two changes for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and five changes for ASX 200.</li>
<li>The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th December 2025.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two changes for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and five changes for ASX 200.
The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th December 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec25: LNW Float Revision; Gold Names Rally; More Surprises Possible

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 13 adds, 2 deletes and 1 listing change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)</a> in September. There are capping and float changes too.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 14.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$2.5bn. There are 12 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>There are multiple stocks that will have same-way flows from other index trackers at the same time, and the impact will be amplified.</li>
</ul>


There are 13 adds, 2 deletes and 1 listing change for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in September. There are capping and float changes too.
Estimated one-way turnover is 14.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$2.5bn. There are 12 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
There are multiple stocks that will have same-way flows from other index trackers at the same time, and the impact will be amplified.


MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 13 Adds, 2 Deletes; US$2.5bn Trade

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-fields-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25109:1" rel="noopener">Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)</a>’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is A$2.52 cash + value per share of GOR's NST stake.</li>
<li>The key condition is GOR shareholder approval. The scheme vote should pass partly due to the benign shareholder structure.  </li>
<li>The offer is attractive. At the last close and for a 13 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.2%/8.1%. </li>
</ul>


The Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) IE considers Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is A$2.52 cash + value per share of GOR's NST stake.
The key condition is GOR shareholder approval. The scheme vote should pass partly due to the benign shareholder structure.  
The offer is attractive. At the last close and for a 13 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.2%/8.1%. 


Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI US)’s Scheme Vote on 22 September

Australia

Capricorn Metals Ltd operates as an exploration and production company. The Company specializes in the gold exploration and production services. Capricorn Metals serves customers in Australia.

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Capricorn Metals (CMM AU)

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (28 Dec)

Statistical methodology identifies nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and seven sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec25: Reference Period Ending Soon; Some Surprises Possible

We have revised our expectations for ASX 100 (please see discussion point below the insight). These are our final expectations for the December...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec25: LNW Float Revision; Gold Names Rally; More Surprises Possible

There are some changes to our list of expected ADDs and DELs since our last insight. There are some names very close to the border and can still...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 13 Adds, 2 Deletes; US$2.5bn Trade

There are 13 adds, 2 deletes, float and capping changes for the GDXJ. There are multiple stocks that have passive flows from the Fglobal, ASX and...

Brian Freitas

Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI US)’s Scheme Vote on 22 September

The vote is low-risk. The offer is attractive. At the last close and for a 13 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.2%/8.1%.

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (28 Dec)

​Statistical methodology identifies nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and seven sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec25: Reference Period Ending Soon; Some Surprises Possible

We have revised our expectations for ASX 100 (please see discussion point below the insight). These are our final expectations for the December...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec25: LNW Float Revision; Gold Names Rally; More Surprises Possible

There are some changes to our list of expected ADDs and DELs since our last insight. There are some names very close to the border and can still...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 13 Adds, 2 Deletes; US$2.5bn Trade

There are 13 adds, 2 deletes, float and capping changes for the GDXJ. There are multiple stocks that have passive flows from the Fglobal, ASX and...

Brian Freitas

Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI US)’s Scheme Vote on 22 September

The vote is low-risk. The offer is attractive. At the last close and for a 13 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.2%/8.1%.

Arun George

Statistical methodology identifies nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and seven sectors, offering unique insights into relative...