Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

OceanaGold Philippines / Equity Bottom-Up

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Valuation: At $4,500/oz, the nine-name median is 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA; excluding Capricorn (18.6x), the sector prices in little of current gold.</li>
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 Performance:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centerra-gold-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25634:1" rel="noopener">Centerra Gold (CG CN)</a>  (+56.5%) and Wesdome (+51.8%) lead YTD, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-mining-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a>  (‑6.2%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinross-gold-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25396:1" rel="noopener">Kinross Gold (K CN)</a> (‑16.4%) lag on the lowest EV/EBITDA (3.9x, 4.2x).</li>
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Picks: We like <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a> for upcoming catalysts, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> for its yield of 10-12%, and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Apex Mining (APX PM)</a> for future growth. </li>
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Valuation: At $4,500/oz, the nine-name median is 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA; excluding Capricorn (18.6x), the sector prices in little of current gold.

 Performance:Centerra Gold (CG CN)  (+56.5%) and Wesdome (+51.8%) lead YTD, while Barrick Mining (B US)  (‑6.2%) and Kinross Gold (K CN) (‑16.4%) lag on the lowest EV/EBITDA (3.9x, 4.2x).

Picks: We like Barrick Mining (B US) for upcoming catalysts, OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) for its yield of 10-12%, and Apex Mining (APX PM) for future growth. 


GOLD MINING SECTOR: Comparative Valuation, Share Price Performance & Gold Price Sensitivity

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 Four names across ASX, PSE, and SGX initiate our gold mining coverage. The universe will expand as models/management meetings are completed across additional ASEAN and Australian producers.</li>
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 Earnings leverage is non-linear: fixed-cost names gain the most between $4,000 and $5,000/oz. Above $4,500/oz, three modelled companies achieve EBITDA margins above 60%. </li>
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Cheapest Stock: Apex Mining (PSE: APX). 6.2x P/E and 3.8x EV/EBITDA at $5,000/oz/Highest Growth Potential: Capricorn Metals (ASX: CMM): Funded pathway to 300,000 oz/pa via the KGP expansion (underway)</li>
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 Four names across ASX, PSE, and SGX initiate our gold mining coverage. The universe will expand as models/management meetings are completed across additional ASEAN and Australian producers.

 Earnings leverage is non-linear: fixed-cost names gain the most between $4,000 and $5,000/oz. Above $4,500/oz, three modelled companies achieve EBITDA margins above 60%. 

Cheapest Stock: Apex Mining (PSE: APX). 6.2x P/E and 3.8x EV/EBITDA at $5,000/oz/Highest Growth Potential: Capricorn Metals (ASX: CMM): Funded pathway to 300,000 oz/pa via the KGP expansion (underway)


Comparative Valuation & Gold Price Sensitivity Analysis of Four Gold Stocks

Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

<ul><li>Environmental approvals for Capricorn Metals&rsquo; significant Mt Gibson gold project have taken much longer than thought, but there might just be light now at the end of the tunnel.</li><li> Capricorn Metals awaits government approvals Together, Karlawinda and Mt Gibson expected to take production to over 300kozpa Capricorn preferred as a low cost, high quality miner UBS initiates coverage</li></ul>

Environmental approvals for Capricorn Metals&rsquo; significant Mt Gibson gold project have taken much longer than thought, but there might just be light now at the end of the tunnel. Capricorn Metals awaits government approvals Together, Karlawinda and Mt Gibson expected to take production to over 300kozpa Capricorn preferred as a low cost, high quality miner UBS initiates coverage

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

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Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capricorn-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10775:1" rel="noopener">Capricorn Metals (CMM AU)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perseus-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15306:1" rel="noopener">Perseus Mining (PRU AU)</a> price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
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Highlights: Going long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capricorn-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10775:1" rel="noopener">Capricorn Metals (CMM AU)</a> and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perseus-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15306:1" rel="noopener">Perseus Mining (PRU AU)</a> targets a 5% return.</li>
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Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
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Context: The Capricorn Metals (CMM AU) vs. Perseus Mining (PRU AU) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlights: Going long Capricorn Metals (CMM AU) and short Perseus Mining (PRU AU) targets a 5% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Capricorn Metals (CMM AU) Vs. Perseus Mining (PRU AU): Gold Miners Stat Arb Opportunity Returns

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Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
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Highlights: Currently six pair trade opportunities across three markets and six sectors persist.</li>
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Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently six pair trade opportunities across three markets and six sectors persist.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (5 Jan '26)

Australia

Capricorn Metals Ltd operates as an exploration and production company. The Company specializes in the gold exploration and production services. Capricorn Metals serves customers in Australia.

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Capricorn Metals (CMM AU)

Comparative Valuation & Gold Price Sensitivity Analysis of Four Gold Stocks

Apex cheapest at 6x P/E; OGP yields 13% with 90% FCF payout; Capricorn doubles to 300koz self-funded. All four print 50%+ EBITDA at $5k gold....

Sameer Taneja

Capricorn Metals' Wait Is (Almost) Over

Environmental approvals for Capricorn Metals’ significant Mt Gibson gold project have taken much longer than thought, but there might just be...

FNArena