IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oishi-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17370:1" rel="noopener">Oishi Group PCL (OISHI TB)</a> IFA opines that shareholders approve <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>’s delisting tender offer of THB59.00 per share at the EGM on 3 May.</li>
<li>The offer is conditional on Oishi shareholder approval which requires 75% approval by total outstanding shares and &lt;10% rejection by total outstanding shares.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive to the IFA’s fair value of THB53.48-56.42 per share. At last close and the end-July completion, the gross and annualised spread is 2.2% and 8.1%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


The Oishi Group PCL (OISHI TB) IFA opines that shareholders approve Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)’s delisting tender offer of THB59.00 per share at the EGM on 3 May.
The offer is conditional on Oishi shareholder approval which requires 75% approval by total outstanding shares and &lt;10% rejection by total outstanding shares.
The offer is attractive to the IFA’s fair value of THB53.48-56.42 per share. At last close and the end-July completion, the gross and annualised spread is 2.2% and 8.1%, respectively.


Oishi Group (OISHI TB): IFA Recommends the THB59.00 Delisting Offer

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Earnings is expected to improve QoQ in 4Q22 and recover YoY in 2023 support by higher consumer purchasing power causing by adjustment of minimum daily wages, higher consumption from FIFA</li>
<li>Core business performance should be recover QoQ   Domestic sales (35% of total sales): Strong revenue growth momentum for domestic energy drinks to persist in 4Q22 and throughout 2023 supported </li>
<li>CLMV sales(30% of total sales)is expected to recover both YoY and QoQ in 4Q22 to Bt1.5bn or two-years average sales in CLMV,driven by a recovery in Cambodia sales after flood </li>
</ul>


Earnings is expected to improve QoQ in 4Q22 and recover YoY in 2023 support by higher consumer purchasing power causing by adjustment of minimum daily wages, higher consumption from FIFA
Core business performance should be recover QoQ   Domestic sales (35% of total sales): Strong revenue growth momentum for domestic energy drinks to persist in 4Q22 and throughout 2023 supported 
CLMV sales(30% of total sales)is expected to recover both YoY and QoQ in 4Q22 to Bt1.5bn or two-years average sales in CLMV,driven by a recovery in Cambodia sales after flood 


CBG : Key Positive Catalyst Should Depend on Sales Performance from Vietnam

<ul>
<li>Downgrade recommendation to HOLD from BUY with a lower target price of Bt105 (Previous TP: Bt120). Our new target price reflects 2023 earnings downward revision by 12% to factored</li>
<li>3Q22 earnings fell both YoY and QoQ  Its net profit came out at Bt475m (-21%YoY, -36%QoQ). After earnings revision,the 9M22 result accounted for 75% of full-year net profit in 2022.</li>
<li>Revenue remained solid at Bt4.7bn (+19%YoY, -11%QoQ) supported by 1) an increase in sales of Carabao dang energy drinks by 19%YoY in domestic market</li>
</ul>


Downgrade recommendation to HOLD from BUY with a lower target price of Bt105 (Previous TP: Bt120). Our new target price reflects 2023 earnings downward revision by 12% to factored
3Q22 earnings fell both YoY and QoQ  Its net profit came out at Bt475m (-21%YoY, -36%QoQ). After earnings revision,the 9M22 result accounted for 75% of full-year net profit in 2022.
Revenue remained solid at Bt4.7bn (+19%YoY, -11%QoQ) supported by 1) an increase in sales of Carabao dang energy drinks by 19%YoY in domestic market


CBG : Weak Margin Pressured on 3Q22 Results

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>We propose a new set of global plays in accordance with the de- globalization trend, shifting the allocation toward Asia-based companies with better growth prospects than those that generate the bulk of their revenue in Western markets.</li><li>Our recommended stocks are CBG and SCGP.</li><li><div><div><p>The global economy is less synchronized than in the past, meaning that a global plays strategy should be more area focused to enhance the growth potential.</p></div></div></li></ul></div></div></div></div>

We propose a new set of global plays in accordance with the de- globalization trend, shifting the allocation toward Asia-based companies with better growth prospects than those that generate the bulk of their revenue in Western markets.Our recommended stocks are CBG and SCGP.The global economy is less synchronized than in the past, meaning that a global plays strategy should be more area focused to enhance the growth potential.

Changing Landscape for Global Plays - Shifting the Allocation of Global Plays Toward Asia

<ul>
<li>Maintain BUY recommendation for CBG with a target price of Bt120 (Previous TP: Bt125). We expect the company to report 3Q22 net profit at Bt615m (+2%YoY, -17%QoQ).</li>
<li>Expect weak CLMV sales to drag 3Q22 earnings   We expect 3Q22 net profit to be at Bt615m. Revenue in 3Q22 is expected at Bt4.7bn (+20%YoY, -10%QoQ)</li>
<li>Gross profit margin in 3Q22 is assumed to drop to 30.6% from 34.1% in 3Q21 and 30.8% in 2Q22. The YoY and QoQ</li>
</ul>


Maintain BUY recommendation for CBG with a target price of Bt120 (Previous TP: Bt125). We expect the company to report 3Q22 net profit at Bt615m (+2%YoY, -17%QoQ).
Expect weak CLMV sales to drag 3Q22 earnings   We expect 3Q22 net profit to be at Bt615m. Revenue in 3Q22 is expected at Bt4.7bn (+20%YoY, -10%QoQ)
Gross profit margin in 3Q22 is assumed to drop to 30.6% from 34.1% in 3Q21 and 30.8% in 2Q22. The YoY and QoQ


CBG : Expect Weak CLMV Sales to Drag 3Q22 Earnings

Thailand

Carabao Group PCL, through its subsidiary, manufactures and distributes energy drinks.

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Carabao Group (CBG TB)

Oishi Group (OISHI TB): IFA Recommends the THB59.00 Delisting Offer

The THB59.00 offer is attractive. The IFA’s fair value is THB53.48-56.42 per share. At the last close and the end-July completion, the annualised...

Arun George

CBG : Key Positive Catalyst Should Depend on Sales Performance from Vietnam

Earnings is expected to improve QoQ in 4Q22 and recover YoY in 2023 support by higher consumer purchasing power causing by adjustment of minimum...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

CBG : Weak Margin Pressured on 3Q22 Results

Downgrade recommendation to HOLD from BUY with a lower target price of Bt105 (Previous TP: Bt120).Our new target price reflects 2023 earnings...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Changing Landscape for Global Plays - Shifting the Allocation of Global Plays Toward Asia

The global economy is less synchronized than in the past, meaning that a global plays strategy should be more area focused to enhance the growth...

Krungthai XSpring

CBG : Expect Weak CLMV Sales to Drag 3Q22 Earnings

Maintain BUY recommendation for CBG with a target price of Bt120 (Previous TP: Bt125). We expect the company to report 3Q22 net profit at Bt615m...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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