Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P Small Cap 600 Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in full swing; continue to ride the trend higher.</li>
<li>Our election day Compass report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and last week's Compass (11/19/24) was similarly titled "Buy the Pullback Again" </li>
<li>We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early part of 2025, with small- and mid-caps leading the way, and for index support at 20-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in full swing; continue to ride the trend higher.
Our election day Compass report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and last week's Compass (11/19/24) was similarly titled "Buy the Pullback Again" 
We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early part of 2025, with small- and mid-caps leading the way, and for index support at 20-day MAs.


Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight; Overweight Mid/Small-Caps

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have significantly improved over the past week.</li>
<li>Last week's 11/5/24 report titled "Buy the Pullback" discussed how we were buyers, expecting a strong end-of-year rally to start that day or the following day (day after the election)</li>
<li>The strong rally officially started on election day, and all that is left to do is ride the trend higher into year-end and the early part of 2025</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have significantly improved over the past week.
Last week's 11/5/24 report titled "Buy the Pullback" discussed how we were buyers, expecting a strong end-of-year rally to start that day or the following day (day after the election)
The strong rally officially started on election day, and all that is left to do is ride the trend higher into year-end and the early part of 2025


Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-Of-Year Rally Underway; Four Sector Upgrades, One Downgrade

<ul>
<li>Outlook remains bullish following the SPX multi-month base breakout above 5670-5783, alongside constructive market dynamics. The market is quite clearly telling us that the path of least resistance is higher.</li>
<li>We would treat any pre-election pullback (if it comes) as a buying opportunity, and we expect to see support on the SPX at 5760 and 5655-5670.</li>
<li>We believe there will be a strong end-of-year rally that will extend into the early part of 2025 due to bullish end-of-year seasonal tendencies during up years (SPX +22.1% YTD).</li>
</ul>


Outlook remains bullish following the SPX multi-month base breakout above 5670-5783, alongside constructive market dynamics. The market is quite clearly telling us that the path of least resistance is higher.
We would treat any pre-election pullback (if it comes) as a buying opportunity, and we expect to see support on the SPX at 5760 and 5655-5670.
We believe there will be a strong end-of-year rally that will extend into the early part of 2025 due to bullish end-of-year seasonal tendencies during up years (SPX +22.1% YTD).


Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX; Bitcoin Breaking Out

<ul>
<li>Since 11/21/23 Compass we have discussed weekly that even a minor 2-5% pullback is far from a guarantee, considering "breakaway gaps" and what appeared to be an ongoing "lockout rally"</li>
<li>All we got was a 1% peak to trough decline in the S&amp;P 500, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) pulled back 2.9% (though left the 11/14/23 gap unfilled).</li>
<li>Now, SPX and QQQ are breaking out yet again after a multi-week consolidation period, including SPX breaking above 2-year resistance at 4600-4607. This is what a strong market looks like.</li>
</ul>


Since 11/21/23 Compass we have discussed weekly that even a minor 2-5% pullback is far from a guarantee, considering "breakaway gaps" and what appeared to be an ongoing "lockout rally"
All we got was a 1% peak to trough decline in the S&amp;P 500, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) pulled back 2.9% (though left the 11/14/23 gap unfilled).
Now, SPX and QQQ are breaking out yet again after a multi-week consolidation period, including SPX breaking above 2-year resistance at 4600-4607. This is what a strong market looks like.


Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

Dow Jones Industrial Average / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 has marginally surpassed the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023. </li>
<li>As noted in our 6/6/23 Compass, we are vigilant at these levels given we expect inflation to remain elevated, but we <em><strong>cannot be bearish</strong></em>if the SPX is above 4165-4200</li>
<li>Breadth has continued to improve within the Russell 2000, and the $IWM is approaching our first target of $190 following the breakout above $180. Also see breadth improving within SPX.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 has marginally surpassed the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023. 
As noted in our 6/6/23 Compass, we are vigilant at these levels given we expect inflation to remain elevated, but we cannot be bearishif the SPX is above 4165-4200
Breadth has continued to improve within the Russell 2000, and the $IWM is approaching our first target of $190 following the breakout above $180. Also see breadth improving within SPX.


Dow Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 Ahead of FOMC; Buy Ideas Within Manufacturing/Industrials

United States

Carnival PLC owns and operates cruise ships. The Company offers cruise vacations in North America, Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, South America, and Australia. Dually-listed company with CCL US.

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Carnival (CUK US)

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight; Overweight Mid/Small-Caps

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight $XLY $RSPD $XRT; Overweight Mid- & Small-Caps $IWM $IJR $IJH. Latest "Buy...

Vermilion Research

Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-Of-Year Rally Underway; Four Sector Upgrades, One Downgrade

Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-of-Year Rally Underway $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Four Sector Upgrades ($XLF to overweight, $XLY $XLI and $IYT to...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX; Bitcoin Breaking Out

Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $NDX $IWM; Bitcoin and Silver Breaking Out $IBIT $SLV. Pullbacks =...

Vermilion Research

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; $SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607, $COMP Breakout Above 14,400. This is what a strong...

Vermilion Research

Dow Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 Ahead of FOMC; Buy Ideas Within Manufacturing/Industrials

Dow $DJI Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 ahead of FOMC. Breadth continues to improve within the Russell 2000 $IWM, and breadth improving within...

Vermilion Research

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