Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

The Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the Eurozone continued its downward trend, coming in at 10.2% in March 2016 compared to 10.4% in February and 11.2% in March 2015. The unemployment rate was at its lowest level since August 2011, and the gradual improvement in the labor market is expected to continue.The decline in the unemployment was largely across the board amongst the Eurozone members. It decreased to 10% in France in March 2016 compared to 10.2% in February while it fell to 4.2%…

The Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the Eurozone continued its downward trend, coming in at 10.2% in March 2016 compared to 10.4% in February and 11.2% in March 2015. The unemployment rate was at its lowest level since August 2011, and the gradual improvement in the labor market is expected to continue.The decline in the unemployment was largely across the board amongst the Eurozone members. It decreased to 10% in France in March 2016 compared to 10.2% in February while it fell to 4.2%…

Eurozone: Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate Continues to Trend Downwards

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Uni President Enterprises and President Chain Store Corp (an affiliate of Uni-President Group) have agreed to acquire a controlling 60% stake ownership of Carrefour Taiwan from Carrefour SA (CA FP).</li>
<li>We believe the acquisition of the additional 49.5% stake in Carrefour Taiwan is likely to have a positive impact on Uni President Enterprises (1216 TT).</li>
<li>Uni President Enterprises is trading at P/S multiple of 0.77x so the acquisition multiple of 0.6x would be slightly lower than Uni President Enterprises' current valuation multiple. </li>
</ul>


Uni President Enterprises and President Chain Store Corp (an affiliate of Uni-President Group) have agreed to acquire a controlling 60% stake ownership of Carrefour Taiwan from Carrefour SA (CA FP).
We believe the acquisition of the additional 49.5% stake in Carrefour Taiwan is likely to have a positive impact on Uni President Enterprises (1216 TT).
Uni President Enterprises is trading at P/S multiple of 0.77x so the acquisition multiple of 0.6x would be slightly lower than Uni President Enterprises' current valuation multiple. 


Uni President Enterprises: Positive Catalyst from Additional Stake Purchase of Carrefour Taiwan

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Auchan, together with private equity, explores a possible €23.5/share offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carrefour-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21409:1" rel="noopener">Carrefour SA (CA FP)</a> (pro forma €105 billion revenues and 500,000 employees), after last October's attempt failed. Synergies should be sizeable. </li>
<li>On a simple LBO model, at year 5, the cumulative IRR would be 15.0%, and leverage would be 3.8x. Anti-trust and political hurdles are to be expected.</li>
<li>The creation of a French champion, should likely be favoured by French politicians. Recommendation is long CA FP, underpinned by a 22e 9.6% FCF yield, with potential offer upside.</li>
</ul>


Auchan, together with private equity, explores a possible €23.5/share offer for Carrefour SA (CA FP) (pro forma €105 billion revenues and 500,000 employees), after last October's attempt failed. Synergies should be sizeable. 
On a simple LBO model, at year 5, the cumulative IRR would be 15.0%, and leverage would be 3.8x. Anti-trust and political hurdles are to be expected.
The creation of a French champion, should likely be favoured by French politicians. Recommendation is long CA FP, underpinned by a 22e 9.6% FCF yield, with potential offer upside.


Auchan/Carrefour: Ongoing Merger Plans, LBO

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21673:1" rel="noopener">METRO AG (MEO GR)</a> will close its Japan operations at the end of October. It follows <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carrefour-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21409:1" rel="noopener">Carrefour SA (CA FP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesco-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22187:1" rel="noopener">Tesco PLC (TSCO LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walmart-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11134:1" rel="noopener">Walmart (WMT US)</a> as the latest major international player to try and fail in the Japanese market and leaves Costco as the only international chain retailer – but a clearly successful one at least.

METRO AG (MEO GR) will close its Japan operations at the end of October. It follows Carrefour SA (CA FP), Tesco PLC (TSCO LN) and Walmart (WMT US) as the latest major international player to try and fail in the Japanese market and leaves Costco as the only international chain retailer – but a clearly successful one at least. 

President, Vision Research

Robert C Prather Jr

President

Vision Research

Vision Research was formed in 2004 with the vision of generating the best possible fundamental analysis and investment research for smid cap US equities. In 2008, we broadened our coverage to include mid/large cap US stocks.  After researching a  few ideas outside the US each year for a number of years, we launched a dedicated non-US equity product at the end of 2015.  This was followed by the introduction of a product focused on IPOs in mid-2017.

Fundamental Insight

This Belgian grocer faces difficult comparisons from Covid tailwinds and increasing competitive pressures from newer and established peers.  Weak cash flow generation and a premium valuation are also of interest.

This Belgian grocer faces difficult comparisons from Covid tailwinds and increasing competitive pressures from newer and established peers.  Weak cash flow generation and a premium valuation are also of interest.

Colruyt (COLR BB) : The Downside Risks Abound in the Shopping Cart

France

Carrefour SA operates chains of supermarkets, hypermarkets, discount, cash and carry, and frozen food stores in Europe, the Americas, and Asia.

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Carrefour SA (CA FP)

Eurozone: Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate Continues to Trend Downwards

The Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the Eurozone continued its downward trend, coming in at 10.2% in March 2016 compared to 10.4% in...

Rajan Govil

Uni President Enterprises: Positive Catalyst from Additional Stake Purchase of Carrefour Taiwan

We believe the acquisition of the additional 49.5% stake in Carrefour Taiwan is likely to have a positive impact on Uni President Enterprises (1216...

Douglas Kim

Auchan/Carrefour: Ongoing Merger Plans, LBO

The possibility of a new French champion, which would avoid falling in the hands of private equity. The LBO maths add up and synergies could be...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Metro Cash and Carry to Exit Japan

One of the few foreign players in Japan's food market has confirmed it will quit the market. Only Costco remains although Amazon is expanding its...

Michael Causton

Colruyt (COLR BB) : The Downside Risks Abound in the Shopping Cart

Belgium's grocery market share leader looks expensive when considering elevated competition that is only increasing and the unwinding of COVID...

Robert C Prather Jr

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