Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21673:1" rel="noopener">METRO AG (MEO GR)</a> will close its Japan operations at the end of October. It follows <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carrefour-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21409:1" rel="noopener">Carrefour SA (CA FP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesco-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22187:1" rel="noopener">Tesco PLC (TSCO LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walmart-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11134:1" rel="noopener">Walmart (WMT US)</a> as the latest major international player to try and fail in the Japanese market and leaves Costco as the only international chain retailer – but a clearly successful one at least.

METRO AG (MEO GR) will close its Japan operations at the end of October. It follows Carrefour SA (CA FP), Tesco PLC (TSCO LN) and Walmart (WMT US) as the latest major international player to try and fail in the Japanese market and leaves Costco as the only international chain retailer – but a clearly successful one at least. 

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.

Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

This Insight explains the main features of German non-voting savings shares and provides a list of the main ones traded. It mentions the reasons why preferred shareholders could be at a disadvantage in case of a takeover, and why some companies choose to offer conversion of preferred shares into ordinary shares.

This Insight explains the main features of German non-voting savings shares and provides a list of the main ones traded. It mentions the reasons why preferred shareholders could be at a disadvantage in case of a takeover, and why some companies choose to offer conversion of preferred shares into ordinary shares.

German Preferred Shares: Takeover and Conversion

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

WM Tech Corporation / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wm-tech-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32976:1" rel="noopener">WM Tech Corporation (WMT HK)</a> is a leading fresh food and FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods) retailer in China through the Wumart and Metro China brands. It is the largest premium store-based fresh food and FMCG retailer in China with a 19.5% market share as measured by sales in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. WM Tech counts <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lenovo-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13359:1" rel="noopener">Lenovo (992 HK)</a> as shareholders. WM Tech has filed for an HKEx IPO to raise potentially $1 billion, according to press reports.  The confusing “WM Tech” holdco name is to emphasise that the proprietary technology platform (WDOS) is a key differentiation from other players in an increasingly competitive market. The technology platform is claimed to provide a unified data loop between the online and offline channels to maximize operational efficiency and greatly improve the shopping experience. <div class="content-highlight">The full adoption of this technology platform is viewed as the key to delivering synergies from the April 2020 acquisition of Metro China from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21673:1" rel="noopener">METRO AG (MEO GR)</a>. While WM Tech is not the only store-based retailer with a complete technology platform, Wumart’s performance suggests that there is some merit in the claim of technology differentiation. Overall, we believe that WM Tech’s fundamentals offer more positives than negatives.</div>

WM Tech Corporation (WMT HK) is a leading fresh food and FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods) retailer in China through the Wumart and Metro China brands. It is the largest premium store-based fresh food and FMCG retailer in China with a 19.5% market share as measured by sales in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. WM Tech counts Tencent Holdings (700 HK) and Lenovo (992 HK) as shareholders. WM Tech has filed for an HKEx IPO to raise potentially $1 billion, according to press reports.  The confusing “WM Tech” holdco name is to emphasise that the proprietary technology platform (WDOS) is a key differentiation from other players in an increasingly competitive market. The technology platform is claimed to provide a unified data loop between the online and offline channels to maximize operational efficiency and greatly improve the shopping experience. The full adoption of this technology platform is viewed as the key to delivering synergies from the April 2020 acquisition of Metro China from METRO AG (MEO GR). While WM Tech is not the only store-based retailer with a complete technology platform, Wumart’s performance suggests that there is some merit in the claim of technology differentiation. Overall, we believe that WM Tech’s fundamentals offer more positives than negatives.

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker, Global Equity Research Ltd

Rickin Thakrar

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosiebensat-1-media-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21696:1" rel="noopener">Prosiebensat.1 (PSM GR)</a> , one of Germany’s largest free-to-air television stations has been subject to significant stake increase in recent weeks and now 24.2% owned by Silvio Berlusconi’s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediaset-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21207:1" rel="noopener">Mediaset SpA (MS IM)</a> . On top of this, private equity firm KKR has built a 5.2% stake while Czech Media Invest, run by billionaire Daniel Kretinsky, has now accumulated a 10% stake in the company.  Mr Kretinsky is well known in M&amp;A circles after unsuccessfully attempting to take over Germany grocery and electronics retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21673:1" rel="noopener">METRO AG (MEO GR)</a> last year.We believe consolidation is necessary for European cable and Prosieben looks cheap vs. its peer group after a recent sell-off. On the flip side, we think KKR’s stake could represent a potential blocking stake and could scuttle a complete takeover.Below we look at the current situation and give our initial thoughts on this unique development in the Euro cable space. More details below.

Prosiebensat.1 (PSM GR) , one of Germany’s largest free-to-air television stations has been subject to significant stake increase in recent weeks and now 24.2% owned by Silvio Berlusconi’s Mediaset SpA (MS IM) . On top of this, private equity firm KKR has built a 5.2% stake while Czech Media Invest, run by billionaire Daniel Kretinsky, has now accumulated a 10% stake in the company.  Mr Kretinsky is well known in M&amp;A circles after unsuccessfully attempting to take over Germany grocery and electronics retailer METRO AG (MEO GR) last year.We believe consolidation is necessary for European cable and Prosieben looks cheap vs. its peer group after a recent sell-off. On the flip side, we think KKR’s stake could represent a potential blocking stake and could scuttle a complete takeover.Below we look at the current situation and give our initial thoughts on this unique development in the Euro cable space. More details below.

Prosieben: Berlusconi Vs. KKR –a Failed Bidding War?

Germany

Metro AG operates retail stores and markets products over the Internet.  The Company operates cash and carry stores, supermarkets and hypermarkets, consumer electronics stores, department stores, theme stores, and online sales services.

METRO AG (MEO GR)

Metro Cash and Carry to Exit Japan

One of the few foreign players in Japan's food market has confirmed it will quit the market. Only Costco remains although Amazon is expanding its...

Michael Causton

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

Our cautious outlook is reinforced by ongoing developments. Relative strength improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, Health...

Vermilion Research

German Preferred Shares: Takeover and Conversion

This Insight explains the main features of German non-voting savings shares, why preferred shareholders could be at a disadvantage during...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

WM Tech IPO Initiation: Food for Thought

WM Tech has filed for an HKEx IPO to raise potentially $1 billion, according to press reports. Overall, we believe that WM Tech’s fundamentals...

Arun George

Prosieben: Berlusconi Vs. KKR –a Failed Bidding War?

Prosiebensat.1 (PSM GR) , one of Germany’s largest free-to-air television stations has been subject to significant stake increase in recent weeks...

Rickin Thakrar