Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In a dramatic turn of events, Hindenburg Research has publicly disclosed a short position against Carvana, intensifying the scrutiny on the online used-car retailer.</li><li>The latest report from Hindenburg, titled “Carvana: A Father-Son Accounting Grift for the Ages,” accuses the company of financial manipulation and unsustainable growth driven by a precarious subprime loan portfolio.</li><li>This revelation has sent ripples through the stock market, causing Carvana’s shares to dip by 1.9% in New York, marking a significant shift after a remarkable 284% surge in the previous year.</li></ul>

In a dramatic turn of events, Hindenburg Research has publicly disclosed a short position against Carvana, intensifying the scrutiny on the online used-car retailer.The latest report from Hindenburg, titled “Carvana: A Father-Son Accounting Grift for the Ages,” accuses the company of financial manipulation and unsustainable growth driven by a precarious subprime loan portfolio.This revelation has sent ripples through the stock market, causing Carvana’s shares to dip by 1.9% in New York, marking a significant shift after a remarkable 284% surge in the previous year.

Carvana Under Fire: Hindenburg Unveils Explosive Allegations!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had a near-term bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) from 4/22/25 to 11/19/25.</li>
<li>After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 report last week, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 report).</li>
<li>We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold. We believe SPX,QQQ, and IWM are in a new "lockout rally"</li>
</ul>


We had a near-term bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) from 4/22/25 to 11/19/25.
After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 report last week, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 report).
We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold. We believe SPX,QQQ, and IWM are in a new "lockout rally"


New Lockout Rally Underway on SPX, QQQ, and IWM? Yes. Here Is Why. Still Bullish

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have significantly improved over the past week.</li>
<li>Last week's 11/5/24 report titled "Buy the Pullback" discussed how we were buyers, expecting a strong end-of-year rally to start that day or the following day (day after the election)</li>
<li>The strong rally officially started on election day, and all that is left to do is ride the trend higher into year-end and the early part of 2025</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have significantly improved over the past week.
Last week's 11/5/24 report titled "Buy the Pullback" discussed how we were buyers, expecting a strong end-of-year rally to start that day or the following day (day after the election)
The strong rally officially started on election day, and all that is left to do is ride the trend higher into year-end and the early part of 2025


Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-Of-Year Rally Underway; Four Sector Upgrades, One Downgrade

<ul><li>Carvana Co. reported an outstanding performance in the third quarter of 2024, with significant financial achievements that attested both to their operational efficiency and market penetration.</li><li>The company registered a record net income of $148 million, with the adjusted EBITDA reaching $429 million, corresponding to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.7%.</li><li>These figures represent not only a record for Carvana Co. but also, as noted by CEO Ernie Garcia, mark the most profitable quarter among automotive public retailers ever.</li></ul>

Carvana Co. reported an outstanding performance in the third quarter of 2024, with significant financial achievements that attested both to their operational efficiency and market penetration.The company registered a record net income of $148 million, with the adjusted EBITDA reaching $429 million, corresponding to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.7%.These figures represent not only a record for Carvana Co. but also, as noted by CEO Ernie Garcia, mark the most profitable quarter among automotive public retailers ever.

Carvana Co.: Enhanced Online Marketplace Growth & Other Major Drivers

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P MidCap 400 additions by transition require market cap, float cap, sector balance, liquidity and earnings as parameters for inclusion.</li>
<li>The highest combined score from the parameters is given to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carvana-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26471:1" rel="noopener">CVNA</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robinhood-markets-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33532:1" rel="noopener">HOOD</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lpl-financial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16363:1" rel="noopener">LPLA</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/entegris-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12493:1" rel="noopener">ENTG</a> which makes them acceptable candidates for addition. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ensign-group-inc-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9297:1" rel="noopener">Ensign Group (ENSG US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mueller-industries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18247:1" rel="noopener">Mueller Industries (MLI US)</a> have the highest probability of being added out of the migrations. Market cap of migration candidates is estimated to be insufficient.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P MidCap 400 additions by transition require market cap, float cap, sector balance, liquidity and earnings as parameters for inclusion.
The highest combined score from the parameters is given to CVNA, HOOD, LPLA and ENTG which makes them acceptable candidates for addition. 

Ensign Group (ENSG US) and Mueller Industries (MLI US) have the highest probability of being added out of the migrations. Market cap of migration candidates is estimated to be insufficient.


S&P MidCap 400 September 2024 Forecasts: Highest Score to the HOOD, CVNA, LPLA, ENTG, ENSG and MLI

United States

Carvana Co. operates an online platform for buying used cars. The Company offers test drives, vehicle financing, and car reviews. Carvana serves customers in the United States.

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Carvana (CVNA US)

Carvana Under Fire: Hindenburg Unveils Explosive Allegations!

In a dramatic turn of events, Hindenburg Research has publicly disclosed a short position against Carvana, intensifying the scrutiny on the online...

Baptista Research

New Lockout Rally Underway on SPX, QQQ, and IWM? Yes. Here Is Why. Still Bullish

New Lockout Rally Underway on $SPX, $QQQ, and $IWM? Yes. The last time we made this same claim was in our 5/6/25 Compass report. Still Near-Term...

Vermilion Research

Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-Of-Year Rally Underway; Four Sector Upgrades, One Downgrade

Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-of-Year Rally Underway $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Four Sector Upgrades ($XLF to overweight, $XLY $XLI and $IYT to...

Vermilion Research

Carvana Co.: Enhanced Online Marketplace Growth & Other Major Drivers

Carvana Co. reported an outstanding performance in the third quarter of 2024, with significant financial achievements that attested both to their...

Baptista Research

S&P MidCap 400 September 2024 Forecasts: Highest Score to the HOOD, CVNA, LPLA, ENTG, ENSG and MLI

Robinhood (HOOD), Entegris (ENTG) and LPL Financial Holdings (LPLA) are amongst the highest scoring addition candidates based on mcap, fcap,...

Dimitris Ioannidis

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