Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Annualised volatility in the S&amp;P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. &nbsp;Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average of volatility of 14% remains broadly in line with historical trends over the sweep of the past 45 years.</li><li>The positive surprise on 2Q US real GDP concealed the five year long stall in nominal GDP growth.&nbsp; The US Federal Reserve&rsquo;s unwillingness to combat disinflation has contributed to the growth stall.&nbsp; Investors remain unnerved by the Fed&rsquo;s willingness to tighten monetary policy at a time when inflation continues to undershoot its 2% target.</li><li>I expect financial market volatility to remain high until the Fed more clearly enunciates the goals of monetary policy and why it remains indifferent to achieving its inflation target.</li><li>In Australia, the poor 2Q capex survey confirmed that the economy is on the precipice of a 20% slump in business investment in FY2015/16.&nbsp; The long and drawn out transition from mining to non-mining capex continues to weigh on growth and frustrate the RBA.&nbsp; In my view, the re-balancing of growth will need an assist from further monetary stimulus.</li></ul>

Annualised volatility in the S&amp;P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. &nbsp;Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average of volatility of 14% remains broadly in line with historical trends over the sweep of the past 45 years.The positive surprise on 2Q US real GDP concealed the five year long stall in nominal GDP growth.&nbsp; The US Federal Reserve&rsquo;s unwillingness to combat disinflation has contributed to the growth stall.&nbsp; Investors remain unnerved by the Fed&rsquo;s willingness to tighten monetary policy at a time when inflation continues to undershoot its 2% target.I expect financial market volatility to remain high until the Fed more clearly enunciates the goals of monetary policy and why it remains indifferent to achieving its inflation target.In Australia, the poor 2Q capex survey confirmed that the economy is on the precipice of a 20% slump in business investment in FY2015/16.&nbsp; The long and drawn out transition from mining to non-mining capex continues to weigh on growth and frustrate the RBA.&nbsp; In my view, the re-balancing of growth will need an assist from further monetary stimulus.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Couche-Tard has withdrawn its offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> by unfairly laying the entire blame on the Board.</li>
<li>The Board has made credible progress, but the jury is still out on whether the Board’s plan will generate returns. Shareholders remain sceptical as the shares have underperformed the index.</li>
<li>In theory, the sell-off presents a buying opportunity (My SoTP valuation is JPY 2,376). However, the shares are likely to tread water as there are no near-term catalysts. </li>
</ul>


Couche-Tard has withdrawn its offer for Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) by unfairly laying the entire blame on the Board.
The Board has made credible progress, but the jury is still out on whether the Board’s plan will generate returns. Shareholders remain sceptical as the shares have underperformed the index.
In theory, the sell-off presents a buying opportunity (My SoTP valuation is JPY 2,376). However, the shares are likely to tread water as there are no near-term catalysts. 


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Dead Money as Couche-Tard Unsurprisingly Walks

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> AGM was a vote of confidence in the Board’s strategy of pursuing two parallel paths to generate value.  </li>
<li>The Board’s management initiatives are steadily being implemented, but have yet to deliver shareholder value. Since they were announced, the share price has modestly outperformed the Nikkei 225.</li>
<li>7&amp;I and Couche Tard signed an NDA but a viable divestiture plan to gain US regulatory approval remains in doubt, particularly as PE has emerged as the likely bidder. </li>
</ul>


The Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) AGM was a vote of confidence in the Board’s strategy of pursuing two parallel paths to generate value.  
The Board’s management initiatives are steadily being implemented, but have yet to deliver shareholder value. Since they were announced, the share price has modestly outperformed the Nikkei 225.
7&amp;I and Couche Tard signed an NDA but a viable divestiture plan to gain US regulatory approval remains in doubt, particularly as PE has emerged as the likely bidder. 


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Wait and Hope

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> has published two documents to respond to misinformation and detail its "<em>constructive engagement</em>" with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)</a>.</li>
<li>The statements underscore the Board’s serious doubts about securing US antitrust approval. The significant discrepancies in the engagement timeline point to two parties at loggerheads. </li>
<li>While the Board claims it is pursuing a dual-track process to create value, the reality is that the process is designed to hinder Couche-Tard's offer to facilitate the restructuring plan.</li>
</ul>



Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) has published two documents to respond to misinformation and detail its "constructive engagement" with Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN).
The statements underscore the Board’s serious doubts about securing US antitrust approval. The significant discrepancies in the engagement timeline point to two parties at loggerheads. 
While the Board claims it is pursuing a dual-track process to create value, the reality is that the process is designed to hinder Couche-Tard's offer to facilitate the restructuring plan.


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Uncomfortable Truths

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Casey's General Stores / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Casey's General Stores reported its third-quarter fiscal year 2025 results, showcasing several positive developments as well as areas that remain challenging.</li><li>On the positive side, the company’s total revenue rose to $3.9 billion, a 17.3% increase from the previous year, primarily driven by a substantial 20.4% increase in fuel gallons sold and impressive 15.3% growth in inside sales.</li><li>The growth in fuel sales, despite a 4.2% decline in retail fuel prices, indicates the company's effective market strategies and potential market share gains, particularly within the Mid-Continent region.</li></ul>

Casey's General Stores reported its third-quarter fiscal year 2025 results, showcasing several positive developments as well as areas that remain challenging.On the positive side, the company’s total revenue rose to $3.9 billion, a 17.3% increase from the previous year, primarily driven by a substantial 20.4% increase in fuel gallons sold and impressive 15.3% growth in inside sales.The growth in fuel sales, despite a 4.2% decline in retail fuel prices, indicates the company's effective market strategies and potential market share gains, particularly within the Mid-Continent region.

Casey's General Stores: Expansion in Texas & Eastern States to Capitalize On Potential Acquisition Opportunities!

United States

Casey's General Stores, Inc. operates convenience stores in the Midwest.  The Company's stores, operating under the name Casey's General Store, carry a selection of food, beverages, tobacco products, health and beauty aids, automotive products, and other non-food items, as well as sells gasoline.

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Casey's General Stores (CASY US)

Weekly Impressions

Annualised volatility in the S&P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average...

Sam Ferraro

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Dead Money as Couche-Tard Unsurprisingly Walks

In theory, the sell-off presents a buying opportunity (My SoTP valuation is JPY 2,376). However, the shares are likely to tread water as there are...

Arun George

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Wait and Hope

The AGM was a vote of confidence in the Board's plan. However, the effectiveness of the management initiatives remains uncertain, and a Couche-Tard...

Arun George

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Uncomfortable Truths

The statements underscore the Board’s serious doubts about securing US antitrust approval. The significant discrepancies in the engagement timeline...

Arun George

Casey's General Stores: Expansion in Texas & Eastern States to Capitalize On Potential Acquisition Opportunities!

Casey's General Stores reported its third-quarter fiscal year 2025 results, showcasing several positive developments as well as areas that remain...

Baptista Research

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