Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On a combined basis, air travel demand in January-February 2026 was up modestly Y/Y</li>
<li>Chinese carriers face sharply higher international jet fuel prices, up 60%+ vs February</li>
<li>Planned fuel surcharges planned for April could hit consumer demand for air travel</li>
</ul>


On a combined basis, air travel demand in January-February 2026 was up modestly Y/Y
Chinese carriers face sharply higher international jet fuel prices, up 60%+ vs February
Planned fuel surcharges planned for April could hit consumer demand for air travel


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January-February Growth Softer | Fuel Surcharges Could Hit Demand

Founder

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

Cherrystone Hill Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA: US) has named Executive Vice Chairman and interim CEO Stefano Pessina as CEO, a move that has been expected. Mr. Pessina had built up Alliance Boots into a leading European and Asian health &amp; beauty retail chain. We expect the company to resume its acquisition program, but the US market looks like the top priority at the moment. WBA will increase its presence in Asia: the only question is timing.

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA: US) has named Executive Vice Chairman and interim CEO Stefano Pessina as CEO, a move that has been expected. Mr. Pessina had built up Alliance Boots into a leading European and Asian health &amp; beauty retail chain. We expect the company to resume its acquisition program, but the US market looks like the top priority at the moment. WBA will increase its presence in Asia: the only question is timing.

Walgreens Boots Alliance Names Permanent CEO: Global Expansion to Continue

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Yes there are a few good China companies out there. In general a company like China Merchants has a good long term theme going for it (see April notes). But in shipping there are more badly run companies than good ones.&nbsp; What follows is an update on a piece I did for a specialized shipping publication following a long line of pieces I have put out delving into COSCO and CSCL corporate governance nightmares over the years. The truth is investors were ripped off on valuations from day one, with bankers helping as a result of shoddy work. Seasoned investors of course are not surprised to find this out. But what still amazes after so many years is the extent of mis-deeds and quite often the lack of interest to delve further into the problems. Feedback I've gotten so far are industry insiders agreeing with the extent of the corruption, and an expression of frustration they could not discuss more openly (although I think the spirit of Xi Jinping's exhortations would support further examination. ... recently Reuters and others did look into new facets of breakdowns at CSCL and COSCO).

Yes there are a few good China companies out there. In general a company like China Merchants has a good long term theme going for it (see April notes). But in shipping there are more badly run companies than good ones.&nbsp; What follows is an update on a piece I did for a specialized shipping publication following a long line of pieces I have put out delving into COSCO and CSCL corporate governance nightmares over the years. The truth is investors were ripped off on valuations from day one, with bankers helping as a result of shoddy work. Seasoned investors of course are not surprised to find this out. But what still amazes after so many years is the extent of mis-deeds and quite often the lack of interest to delve further into the problems. Feedback I've gotten so far are industry insiders agreeing with the extent of the corruption, and an expression of frustration they could not discuss more openly (although I think the spirit of Xi Jinping's exhortations would support further examination. ... recently Reuters and others did look into new facets of breakdowns at CSCL and COSCO).

A Brief History of Corporate Governance Nightmares at China's Flagship Shipping Companies

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electric-power-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15457:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) (9501 JP)</a> trade is to short or long-sell into exuberance. Shorts should wait until the pump exhausts itself (or appears to).</li>
<li>At 0.34x forward P/B, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a> is cheap. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5775:1" rel="noopener">Swire Properties (1972 HK)</a> at 0.33x is also inexpensive. But HK IP drags. Ger exposure to the stub.</li>
<li>Elliott sees <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-o-s-k-lines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20717:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (9104 JP)</a> as undervalued. Best to be long than short on an outright basis, but there is not a lot of detail out there yet.</li>
</ul>


The Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) (9501 JP) trade is to short or long-sell into exuberance. Shorts should wait until the pump exhausts itself (or appears to).
At 0.34x forward P/B, Swire Pacific (19 HK) is cheap. Swire Properties (1972 HK) at 0.33x is also inexpensive. But HK IP drags. Ger exposure to the stub.
Elliott sees Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (9104 JP) as undervalued. Best to be long than short on an outright basis, but there is not a lot of detail out there yet.


Last Week In Event SPACE: TEPCO, Swire, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines. CK Hutchison

The "new" Economic Silk Belt initiative is not new, and includes more dimensions than initially believed to have. It is a positive for China and global infrastructure plays. But other issues include continued massive movement outward of people via construction workforces as well as potential and eventual growth of military influence.

The "new" Economic Silk Belt initiative is not new, and includes more dimensions than initially believed to have. It is a positive for China and global infrastructure plays. But other issues include continued massive movement outward of people via construction workforces as well as potential and eventual growth of military influence.

China's New International Political Economy

Hong Kong

Cathay Pacific is a premium travel lifestyle brand offering scheduled passenger and cargo air transportation, along with low-cost travel and various lifestyle products and services. The airline connects Hong Kong, mainland China, and the world through its hub at Hong Kong International Airport. It was founded in Hong Kong in 1946.

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Cathay Pacific (293 HK)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January-February Growth Softer | Fuel Surcharges Could Hit Demand

On a combined basis, January-February Chinese air travel rose modestly compare to 2025. If carriers follow through with planned fuel surcharges,...

Tracking Traffic

Walgreens Boots Alliance Names Permanent CEO: Global Expansion to Continue

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA: US) has named Executive Vice Chairman and interim CEO Stefano Pessina as CEO, a move that has been expected. Mr....

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

A Brief History of Corporate Governance Nightmares at China's Flagship Shipping Companies

Yes there are a few good China companies out there. In general a company like China Merchants has a good long term theme going for it (see April...

Charles De Trenck

Last Week In Event SPACE: TEPCO, Swire, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines. CK Hutchison

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

China's New International Political Economy

The "new" Economic Silk Belt initiative is not new, and includes more dimensions than initially believed to have. It is a positive for China and...

Charles De Trenck

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52-week Range

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