Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the war enters its second month.</li>
<li>Asian countries are highly dependent on oil and gas shipments from the Middle East, with airlines, petrochemical companies, and gas distribution companies all negatively affected.</li>
<li>Iran now controls when the flow of energy from the Middle East starts and thereby when the war stops. Gulf countries will not allow Iran to be the Straits gatekeeper.</li>
</ul>


So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the war enters its second month.
Asian countries are highly dependent on oil and gas shipments from the Middle East, with airlines, petrochemical companies, and gas distribution companies all negatively affected.
Iran now controls when the flow of energy from the Middle East starts and thereby when the war stops. Gulf countries will not allow Iran to be the Straits gatekeeper.


OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 25th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Zijin Gold Intl, Alibaba, CCB, Trip.Com, Meituan, BOC, Wuxi Apptec, Wanguo Gold Gp.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 25th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Zijin Gold Intl, Alibaba, CCB, Trip.Com, Meituan, BOC, Wuxi Apptec, Wanguo Gold Gp.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Zijin Gold Intl, Alibaba, CCB, Trip.Com, Meituan, BOC, Wuxi Apptec

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The airlines and marine transportation sectors are the most exposed to the rise in Brent oil prices caused by the current US-Iran conflicts in the Middle East.</li>
<li>For the airlines, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-eastern-airlines-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1079:1" rel="noopener">China Eastern Airlines (670 HK)</a> is the most vulnerable, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a> is relatively more insulated.</li>
<li>For marine transportation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a> is the least exposed, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-basin-shipping-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:929:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Basin Shipping (2343 HK)</a> looks to be more negatively affected.</li>
</ul>


The airlines and marine transportation sectors are the most exposed to the rise in Brent oil prices caused by the current US-Iran conflicts in the Middle East.
For the airlines, China Eastern Airlines (670 HK) is the most vulnerable, while Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) is relatively more insulated.
For marine transportation, SITC International (1308 HK) is the least exposed, but Pacific Basin Shipping (2343 HK) looks to be more negatively affected.


HK Strategy: Assessing the Oil Vulnerability

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>Growth trends at four listed Chinese airports YTD 2025 showed surprising differences</li>
<li>The fastest-growing airports were also the worst performing stocks in the group in 2025</li>
<li>Shares of Guangzhou's and Shanghai's airports also lagged those of "hometown" airlines</li>
</ul>


Growth trends at four listed Chinese airports YTD 2025 showed surprising differences
The fastest-growing airports were also the worst performing stocks in the group in 2025
Shares of Guangzhou's and Shanghai's airports also lagged those of "hometown" airlines


Chinese Airports | Surprising YTD 2025 Growth Trends | Pair Long Airports Vs Short Airlines?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>August air activity largely matched July's improved pace of growth (versus weak Q2)</li>
<li>The improvement in domestic activity has been more dramatic than in outbound </li>
<li>Effectively, high fuel costs appear to be keeping travelers closer to home here in Q3</li>
</ul>


August air activity largely matched July's improved pace of growth (versus weak Q2)
The improvement in domestic activity has been more dramatic than in outbound 
Effectively, high fuel costs appear to be keeping travelers closer to home here in Q3


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | August Traffic Resilient, Especially Domestic Air Activity

Hong Kong

Cathay Pacific is a premium travel lifestyle brand offering scheduled passenger and cargo air transportation, along with low-cost travel and various lifestyle products and services. The airline connects Hong Kong, mainland China, and the world through its hub at Hong Kong International Airport. It was founded in Hong Kong in 1946.

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Cathay Pacific (293 HK)

OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the...

David Mudd

HK Short Interest Weekly: Zijin Gold Intl, Alibaba, CCB, Trip.Com, Meituan, BOC, Wuxi Apptec

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 25th and highlight short interest changes in Zijin Gold Intl (2259 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Strategy: Assessing the Oil Vulnerability

Rise in Brent oil prices due to US-Iran conflicts hits airlines and marine transportation sectors as fuel and bunker costs increase, with China...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Chinese Airports | Surprising YTD 2025 Growth Trends | Pair Long Airports Vs Short Airlines?

Surprising growth trends among four listed Chinese airports in 2025 and striking differences in recent share performance suggest a pair trade: Long...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | August Traffic Resilient, Especially Domestic Air Activity

August air traffic figures show a decent Y/Y recovery that mirrors what we saw in July, especially for domestic travel. We believe demand could...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the...

David Mudd

HK Short Interest Weekly: Zijin Gold Intl, Alibaba, CCB, Trip.Com, Meituan, BOC, Wuxi Apptec

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 25th and highlight short interest changes in Zijin Gold Intl (2259 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Strategy: Assessing the Oil Vulnerability

​Rise in Brent oil prices due to US-Iran conflicts hits airlines and marine transportation sectors as fuel and bunker costs increase, with China...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Chinese Airports | Surprising YTD 2025 Growth Trends | Pair Long Airports Vs Short Airlines?

Surprising growth trends among four listed Chinese airports in 2025 and striking differences in recent share performance suggest a pair trade: Long...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | August Traffic Resilient, Especially Domestic Air Activity

August air traffic figures show a decent Y/Y recovery that mirrors what we saw in July, especially for domestic travel. We believe demand could...

Tracking Traffic

Rise in Brent oil prices due to US-Iran conflicts hits airlines and marine transportation sectors as fuel and bunker costs increase, with China...