Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After Hong Kong announced abandoning hotel quarantine for inbound travellers, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific (293 HK)</a> gained 2.6% last Friday, but finished up just 1%. That probably sums up the situation.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Cathay and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a> are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. </li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


After Hong Kong announced abandoning hotel quarantine for inbound travellers, Cathay Pacific (293 HK) gained 2.6% last Friday, but finished up just 1%. That probably sums up the situation.
Preceding my comments on Cathay and Swire Pacific (19 HK) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Swire/Cathay And Hong Kong's "Opening"

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite record losses in 2Q22, share price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a> has rallied 14% YTD, outperformed the 23.9% decline in HSCEI and its Chinese peers. </li>
<li>Air China's stub value has returned to pre-pandemic level, but is primarily driven by the A-share. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific (293 HK)</a> recovery is an important catalyst for narrowing H-A share discount.</li>
<li>News flow over the next 12 months, mostly related to further relaxation of quarantine requirements, will be positive. The surge in demand should support elevated passenger yield.  </li>
</ul>


Despite record losses in 2Q22, share price of Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) has rallied 14% YTD, outperformed the 23.9% decline in HSCEI and its Chinese peers. 
Air China's stub value has returned to pre-pandemic level, but is primarily driven by the A-share. Cathay Pacific (293 HK) recovery is an important catalyst for narrowing H-A share discount.
News flow over the next 12 months, mostly related to further relaxation of quarantine requirements, will be positive. The surge in demand should support elevated passenger yield.  


Air China (753 HK): Can It Sustain the Outperformance?

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology</li>
<li>Six stock remains, and eight stocks added to our portfolio</li>
<li>Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 93% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 55%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology
Six stock remains, and eight stocks added to our portfolio
Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 93% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 55%


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/interglobe-aviation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24877:1" rel="noopener">InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN)</a>’s co-founder Rakesh Gangwal aims to raise around US$250m via selling 2.8% of the company.</li>
<li>He had earlier stated his intention to pare down his stake after a long drawn, and very public battle, with the other co-founder Rahul Bhatia. </li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN)’s co-founder Rakesh Gangwal aims to raise around US$250m via selling 2.8% of the company.
He had earlier stated his intention to pare down his stake after a long drawn, and very public battle, with the other co-founder Rahul Bhatia. 
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Placement - The Beginning of the End of the Overhang

<ul>
<li>Based on an admittedly somewhat finger-in-the-air estimate of probability of privatisation,  shorting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> here against its Peer Basket is probably not a good outcome.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23726:1" rel="noopener"></a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a> has started buying back with 3.5x the average ADV impact on Bs vs As. That is likely to continue. </li>
<li>KKR's all cash A$88/share Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health (RHC AU)</a> is off. The alternative Offer has a lower implied value, and has been unceremoniously rejected, despite Ramsay's horrible FY22 numbers.</li>
</ul>


Based on an admittedly somewhat finger-in-the-air estimate of probability of privatisation,  shorting Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) here against its Peer Basket is probably not a good outcome.

Swire Pacific (19 HK) has started buying back with 3.5x the average ADV impact on Bs vs As. That is likely to continue. 
KKR's all cash A$88/share Offer for Ramsay Health (RHC AU) is off. The alternative Offer has a lower implied value, and has been unceremoniously rejected, despite Ramsay's horrible FY22 numbers.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Swire Pacific, Ramsay Health, Pendal, Intouch

Hong Kong

Cathay Pacific Airways Limited operates scheduled airline services. The Company also provides related services, including airline catering, aircraft handling, and engineering.

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Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)

StubWorld: Swire/Cathay And Hong Kong's "Opening"

I still like Swire Pac at 0.33x P/B, but it's had a great run after the buyback. If you had the trade on - long Swire Pac, Short Prop - I'd look to...

David Blennerhassett

Air China (753 HK): Can It Sustain the Outperformance?

Air China's stub value (ex-Cathay Pacific) has returned to pre-pandemic level, driven primarily by the A-share. We expect discount of H-share to A...

Osbert Tang, CFA

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 38

We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology. Portfolio changes: Six stock remains, and eight new join...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Placement - The Beginning of the End of the Overhang

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN)’s co-founder Rakesh Gangwal aims to raise around US$250m via selling 2.8% of the company.

Sumeet Singh

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Swire Pacific, Ramsay Health, Pendal, Intouch

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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