Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

Chinese media reports Chinese tourism activity during the long Golden Week + National Day holiday period declined by about 21% YoY to 637 mn person-visits. Spending on tourism during the period reportedly fell by 28% YoY to 466 bn RMB. 
Some observers are suggesting these numbers show a strong continued recovery in tourism demand since activity collapsed in Q1 this year due to the Covid19 pandemic.
But we disagree.
In our view, the headline 2020 Golden Week+ numbers we have seen so far are not as strong as we would have expected, given a number of factors that actually should have flattered this year's overall activity and spending numbers. 
A closer analysis of the numbers actually suggests tepid tourism demand, in our opinion, and we do not believe the recovery has gained momentum in October.

Chinese media reports Chinese tourism activity during the long Golden Week + National Day holiday period declined by about 21% YoY to 637 mn person-visits. Spending on tourism during the period reportedly fell by 28% YoY to 466 bn RMB. 
Some observers are suggesting these numbers show a strong continued recovery in tourism demand since activity collapsed in Q1 this year due to the Covid19 pandemic.
But we disagree.
In our view, the headline 2020 Golden Week+ numbers we have seen so far are not as strong as we would have expected, given a number of factors that actually should have flattered this year's overall activity and spending numbers. 
A closer analysis of the numbers actually suggests tepid tourism demand, in our opinion, and we do not believe the recovery has gained momentum in October.  

China's 'Golden Week': Headline Tourism Numbers Hardly Shine

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*Trip.com Should Continue to Get a Significant Upward Re-Rating: Mainland China has been at the epicenter of this tourism slowdown. If the virus impact continues to be held in check for 2-3 weeks post-Golden Week, the risk to tourism and confidence should start to seriously abate; and *Travel Rebound Underway: The good news is that mainland China hasn’t “officially” reported local COVID-19 infections since August 15th, although there were two asymptomatic cases disclosed in late September. After nine plus months of hiding and the Covid-19 pandemic largely under control in mainland China, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism stated that the first four days of the Golden Week holiday beginning October 1st witnessed nearly 425 mn local trips - nearly 80% of the level posted in 2019.

*Trip.com Should Continue to Get a Significant Upward Re-Rating: Mainland China has been at the epicenter of this tourism slowdown. If the virus impact continues to be held in check for 2-3 weeks post-Golden Week, the risk to tourism and confidence should start to seriously abate; and *Travel Rebound Underway: The good news is that mainland China hasn’t “officially” reported local COVID-19 infections since August 15th, although there were two asymptomatic cases disclosed in late September. After nine plus months of hiding and the Covid-19 pandemic largely under control in mainland China, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism stated that the first four days of the Golden Week holiday beginning October 1st witnessed nearly 425 mn local trips - nearly 80% of the level posted in 2019.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Northern Star/Saracen, Vedanta, Toyota, Swire

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> has <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/1008/2020100800907.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it intends to list its wholly-owned <a href="https://www.swireblueocean.com/en/activities/what-we-do/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Swire Blue Ocean A/S</a> (to be renamed Cadeler A/S) on the Oslo Stock Exchange.
Cadeler’s principal business is the "installation of wind turbines and foundations for offshore windfarms and the provision of operation and maintenance services, accommodation, met mast installation and removal and decommissioning services to the offshore windfarm industry in northern European waters".
Swire intends to remain a significant shareholder in Cadeler following completion of the proposed spin-off.
What would be the market cap for Cadeler? It currently operates two windfarm installation vessels. My back of the napkin calculations suggests a market cap upwards of US$250mn. This is not a material transaction.
As always, more below the fold.

Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) has announced it intends to list its wholly-owned Swire Blue Ocean A/S (to be renamed Cadeler A/S) on the Oslo Stock Exchange.
Cadeler’s principal business is the "installation of wind turbines and foundations for offshore windfarms and the provision of operation and maintenance services, accommodation, met mast installation and removal and decommissioning services to the offshore windfarm industry in northern European waters".
Swire intends to remain a significant shareholder in Cadeler following completion of the proposed spin-off.
What would be the market cap for Cadeler? It currently operates two windfarm installation vessels. My back of the napkin calculations suggests a market cap upwards of US$250mn. This is not a material transaction.
As always, more below the fold.

Swire Pacific: Oslo Spin-Off For Windfarm Installation Ops

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Air activity around the region appeared to improve on Friday, October 2nd, with departures from the nine airports we track rising to their highest level since we began monitoring data for this report (early April). As has been the case for the past six months, Mainland Chinese airports continue to lead the recovery, with other origins reporting only modest improvement, if any. 
Weighted average room rates in the cities we track remained well above Spring and Summer lows, but fell by 3% compared to a month ago. This is not surprising; despite the improvement in travel activity over the past few months, we doubt many hotels have regained substantial pricing power. 
Overall, the data we collected this week appears to confirm existing trends: Chinese domestic travel activity continues to improve, but regional activity remains far below year-ago levels. Pure Chinese domestic plays, whether transport or hotels, should continue to recover ahead of names exposed to cross-border travel, which still faces a multitude of Covid19-related restrictions.

Air activity around the region appeared to improve on Friday, October 2nd, with departures from the nine airports we track rising to their highest level since we began monitoring data for this report (early April). As has been the case for the past six months, Mainland Chinese airports continue to lead the recovery, with other origins reporting only modest improvement, if any. 
Weighted average room rates in the cities we track remained well above Spring and Summer lows, but fell by 3% compared to a month ago. This is not surprising; despite the improvement in travel activity over the past few months, we doubt many hotels have regained substantial pricing power. 
Overall, the data we collected this week appears to confirm existing trends: Chinese domestic travel activity continues to improve, but regional activity remains far below year-ago levels. Pure Chinese domestic plays, whether transport or hotels, should continue to recover ahead of names exposed to cross-border travel, which still faces a multitude of Covid19-related restrictions.

TRACKING TRAFFIC's Travel Tracker Dashboard (October 2): Air Activity Improves | Room Rates Stagnate

Hong Kong

Cathay Pacific Airways Limited operates scheduled airline services. The Company also provides related services, including airline catering, aircraft handling, and engineering.

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Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)

China's 'Golden Week': Headline Tourism Numbers Hardly Shine

Contrary to some, we do not believe headline tourism numbers from the recent Golden Week suggest improving conditions in China's domestic travel...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com – All Systems Go

Trip.com - All Systems Go: Travel during Golden Week, and C-Trip looks to be biggest beneficiary as largest online travel agency.

Thomas J. Monaco

Last Week in Event SPACE: Northern Star/Saracen, Vedanta, Toyota, Swire

Last Week in Event SPACE ... Plus, other events, CCASS movements and Mood Spins. (This insight covers specific insights & comments...

David Blennerhassett

Swire Pacific: Oslo Spin-Off For Windfarm Installation Ops

Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) has annoucndc igd Swire Pacific Offshore, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Swire Pacific Limited (“Swire Pacific”), is...

David Blennerhassett

TRACKING TRAFFIC's Travel Tracker Dashboard (October 2): Air Activity Improves | Room Rates Stagnate

what happened of note? air activity in china and elsewhere hotel room rates conclusions

Tracking Traffic

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