ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. </li>
<li>GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. </li>
<li>Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.</li>
</ul>


The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. 
GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. 
Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.


CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arwana-citramulia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17042:1" rel="noopener">Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ)</a> is Indonesia's leading ceramic tile producer catering to the mass market but expanding into the higher-end porcelain tile space competing with Chinese imports at lower costs.</li>
<li>The recent move by the government to extend the gas subsidy for the industry bodes well for Arwana given the strides it has already made in reducing gas consumption.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arwana-citramulia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17042:1" rel="noopener">Arwana</a> continues to expand its capacity, especially in higher-margin porcelain tiles, which will help to drive future growth and profitability. Valuations are attractive as capacity-driven growth kicks in.</li>
</ul>



Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) is Indonesia's leading ceramic tile producer catering to the mass market but expanding into the higher-end porcelain tile space competing with Chinese imports at lower costs.
The recent move by the government to extend the gas subsidy for the industry bodes well for Arwana given the strides it has already made in reducing gas consumption.

Arwana continues to expand its capacity, especially in higher-margin porcelain tiles, which will help to drive future growth and profitability. Valuations are attractive as capacity-driven growth kicks in.


Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) - Top Notch Industrial with a Catalyst

<ul>
<li>The Indonesian market has seen a sharp sell-off with a confluence of concerns centred around the execution and implementation of government policy but the fall was mainly driven by retail.</li>
<li>The sell-off does not reflect an underlying deterioration of growth prospects for the economy or indeed earnings, although 4Q2024 results saw a slower performance for some sectors. </li>
<li>The government has already taken note and has determined to take action to reassure investors through policy measures. Valuations have already reached a historically attractive level.</li>
</ul>


The Indonesian market has seen a sharp sell-off with a confluence of concerns centred around the execution and implementation of government policy but the fall was mainly driven by retail.
The sell-off does not reflect an underlying deterioration of growth prospects for the economy or indeed earnings, although 4Q2024 results saw a slower performance for some sectors. 
The government has already taken note and has determined to take action to reassure investors through policy measures. Valuations have already reached a historically attractive level.


CrossASEAN Strategy - Indonesia's Delicate Balance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arwana-citramulia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17042:1" rel="noopener">Arwana Citramulia</a> published a solid set of FY2024 results, with sales growth to +7.4% YoY, although FY2024 net profit was down slightly due to cost pressures and higher promotional spending.</li>
<li>The company continues to see a favourable product mix shift towards higher-end tiles, especially its ARNA porcelain brand. New capacity coming on stream in 2025 will provide a further boost.</li>
<li>The gas subsidy has yet to be confirmed for the ceramic industry, but expectations are that it will come through shortly. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arwana-citramulia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17042:1" rel="noopener">Arwana Citramulia</a> valuations remain attractive, with higher growth ahead.</li>
</ul>



Arwana Citramulia published a solid set of FY2024 results, with sales growth to +7.4% YoY, although FY2024 net profit was down slightly due to cost pressures and higher promotional spending.
The company continues to see a favourable product mix shift towards higher-end tiles, especially its ARNA porcelain brand. New capacity coming on stream in 2025 will provide a further boost.
The gas subsidy has yet to be confirmed for the ceramic industry, but expectations are that it will come through shortly. Arwana Citramulia valuations remain attractive, with higher growth ahead.


Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) - Capacity-Driven Growth Ahead

Equity Capital Markets

PT Daya Intiguna Yasa Tbk (Mr DIY Indonesia) / Equity Capital Markets

PT Daya Intiguna Yasa Tbk (Mr DIY Indonesia)

<ul>
<li>Home improvements player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-daya-intiguna-yasa-tbk-mr-diy-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44124:1" rel="noopener">PT Daya Intiguna Yasa (Mr DIY Indonesia)</a> completed the book building for its IPO this week for its Jakarta listing where it seeks to raise US$296m. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-daya-intiguna-yasa-tbk-mr-diy-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44124:1" rel="noopener">Mr DIY</a>  has seen a rapid rollout of outlets with over 900 stores across Indonesia and SSSG over the last two years of 30%-40% and the company is already profitable. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-daya-intiguna-yasa-tbk-mr-diy-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44124:1" rel="noopener">Mr DIY</a>  has a 25% market share of the home improvements segment focusing on the mass market with affordable products. Prefer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aspirasi-hidup-indonesia-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12808:1" rel="noopener">Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia</a> as a proxy for this space.</li>
</ul>


Home improvements player PT Daya Intiguna Yasa (Mr DIY Indonesia) completed the book building for its IPO this week for its Jakarta listing where it seeks to raise US$296m. 

Mr DIY  has seen a rapid rollout of outlets with over 900 stores across Indonesia and SSSG over the last two years of 30%-40% and the company is already profitable. 

Mr DIY  has a 25% market share of the home improvements segment focusing on the mass market with affordable products. Prefer Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia as a proxy for this space.


Mr DIY Indonesia IPO - Prefer Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ)

Indonesia

PT Catur Sentosa Adiprana Tbk distributes paint, chemical products, and building materials.

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Catur Sentosa Adiprana Tbk (CSAP IJ)

CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new...

Angus Mackintosh

Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) - Top Notch Industrial with a Catalyst

Arwana continues to expand its capacity into higher-margin porcelain tiles, which will help to drive future growth and profitability. Valuations...

Angus Mackintosh

CrossASEAN Strategy - Indonesia's Delicate Balance

The Indonesian market has seen a sharp sell-off with a confluence of concerns centred around the execution and implementation of government policy...

Angus Mackintosh

Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) - Capacity-Driven Growth Ahead

Arwana Citramulia continues to see a favourable product mix shift towards higher-end tiles, especially its ARNA porcelain brand, with new capacity...

Angus Mackintosh

Mr DIY Indonesia IPO - Prefer Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ)

Mr DIY has a 25% market share of the home improvements segment focusing on the mass market with affordable products. We prefer ACES IJ as a proxy...

Angus Mackintosh

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