Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Credit

<ul>
<li>BHP and Rio Tinto maintained leverage below 1.0x net debt-to-EBITDA, supporting tighter spreads, refinancing flexibility and stronger valuation resilience despite fragmented commodity conditions.</li>
<li>Anglo American traded more as a restructuring story during 2024–2025, with 1.3x leverage, wider spreads and execution concerns outweighing relatively supported copper exposure.</li>
<li>Credit spread stability and refinancing resilience now differentiate diversified miners as lithium and nickel weakness offset stronger copper performance across fragmented commodity cycles.</li>
</ul>


BHP and Rio Tinto maintained leverage below 1.0x net debt-to-EBITDA, supporting tighter spreads, refinancing flexibility and stronger valuation resilience despite fragmented commodity conditions.
Anglo American traded more as a restructuring story during 2024–2025, with 1.3x leverage, wider spreads and execution concerns outweighing relatively supported copper exposure.
Credit spread stability and refinancing resilience now differentiate diversified miners as lithium and nickel weakness offset stronger copper performance across fragmented commodity cycles.


Diversified Mining: Balance Sheet Alpha Over Commodity Beta

Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>We are at important global macro crossroads: Central Banks are trying to remove accommodation from markets to tame inflationary pressures right at a point when the impulse of global growth has lost momentum</li>
<li>Over the last few weeks, bond yields have dropped and yield curves continued to flatten across the board</li>
<li>But the most interesting moves are visible once you decompose nominal yields into <strong>inflation break-evens</strong> and <strong>real yields, </strong>and focus on forward looking metrics and probability distributions</li>
</ul>


We are at important global macro crossroads: Central Banks are trying to remove accommodation from markets to tame inflationary pressures right at a point when the impulse of global growth has lost momentum
Over the last few weeks, bond yields have dropped and yield curves continued to flatten across the board
But the most interesting moves are visible once you decompose nominal yields into inflation break-evens and real yields, and focus on forward looking metrics and probability distributions


United States

The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index

CDX IG CDSI GEN 5Y (IBOXUMAE INDEX)

Diversified Mining: Balance Sheet Alpha Over Commodity Beta

Fragmented commodity cycles increasingly reward balance-sheet resilience over commodity beta, with credit spreads now differentiating diversified...

Duncan Chan

The Bears are Knocking at The Door

We are at important global macro crossroads: Central Banks are trying to remove accommodation from markets to tame inflationary pressures right at...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)